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Wednesday, May 4, 2022

From Estee Lauder to Apple, big companies say China Covid curbs hit business

  Several international corporations warned in the last week the drag from China’s Covid controls will hit their entire business.

Since March, mainland China has battled an outbreak of the highly transmissible omicron variant by using swift lockdowns and travel restrictions. The same strategy had helped the country quickly return to growth in 2020 while the rest of the world struggled to contain the virus.

Now the latest lockdown in Shanghai has lasted for more than a month with only slight progress toward resuming full production, while Beijing has temporarily closed some service businesses to control a recent spike in Covid cases.

International corporations have a host of other challenges to deal with, from decades-high inflation in the U.S. and a strong dollar, to the Russia-Ukraine war. But China is an important manufacturing base, if not consumer market, that many companies have focused on for their future growth.

Here is a selection of what some of the companies have told investors about China in the last week:

Starbucks: Suspending guidance

Starbucks said Tuesday same-store sales in China fell by 23% in the quarter ended April 3 from the same quarter last year. That’s far worse than the 0.2% increase analysts expected, according to FactSet.

Conditions in China are such that we have virtually no ability to predict our performance in China in the back half of the year.
Howard Schultz
STARBUCKS, INTERIM CEO

The coffee giant suspended its guidance for the rest of the fiscal year, or the remaining two quarters.

“Conditions in China are such that we have virtually no ability to predict our performance in China in the back half of the year,” interim CEO Howard Schultz said on an earnings call, noting additional uncertainty from inflation and the company’s investment plans.

Starbucks said it still expected its China business to be bigger than the U.S. in the long term.

Apple: Shanghai lockdown to hit sales

Despite nearly all its final assembly plants in Shanghai restarting production, Apple said the lockdowns would likely hit sales in the current quarter by $4 billion to $8 billion — “substantially” more than in the last quarter. The other factor is the ongoing chip shortage, management said on an April 28 earnings call.

“Covid is difficult to predict,” CEO Tim Cook said after describing those estimated costs, according to an earnings call transcript from StreetAccount.

Apple also blamed Covid disruptions for affecting consumer demand in China.

DuPont: Second-quarter lockdown impact

DuPont, which sells multi-industry specialty products such as adhesives and construction materials, announced second-quarter guidance Tuesday below analysts’ expectations.

“We anticipate key external uncertainties in the macro environment, namely COVID-related shutdowns in China, will further tighten supply chains resulting in slower volume growth and sequential margin contraction in the second quarter 2022,” Lori Koch, Chief Financial Officer of DuPont, said in a release, noting that “underlying demand continues to remain solid.”

Two DuPont sites in China “went into full lockdown mode in March” and are expected to be fully reopened by mid-May, Koch said. She also said that within the electronics business, inability to get raw materials from China forced some factories to run at lower rates, affecting margin in the second quarter.

The company expects revenue of $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion in the second quarter, slightly below the $3.33 billion forecast by FactSet. Earnings per share of 70 cents to 80 cents in the second quarter is also below FactSet’s estimated 84 cents a share.

Full-year guidance for the year ending in December remained in line with FactSet expectations.

Estee Lauder: Cutting fiscal year outlook

Despite a strong fiscal third quarter, makeup company Estee Lauder cut its full-year outlook due to Covid controls in China and inflation.

“The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in many Chinese provinces led to restrictions late in the fiscal 2022 third quarter to prevent further spread of the virus,” the company said in a release Tuesday.

“Consequently, retail traffic, travel, and distribution capabilities were temporarily curtailed,” it added. “The Company’s distribution facilities in Shanghai operated with limited capacity to fulfill brick-and-mortar and online orders beginning in mid-March 2022.”

The new guidance for the fiscal year, which ends June 30, anticipates revenue growth of between 7% to 9%, well below FactSet expectations for a 14.5% increase. Estee Lauder’s forecast of $7.05 to $7.15 earnings per share is also below the $7.57 a share analysts expected.

Yum China: Upcoming quarterly loss

While analysts generally expect second-quarter profit of 29 cents a share, Yum China CFO Andy Yeung warned that “unless the COVID-19 situation improves significantly in May and June, we expect to incur an operating loss in the second quarter.”

The company operates fast food brands KFC and Pizza Hut in China, and is the majority stakeholder in a joint venture with Italian coffee company Lavazza, which has opened cafes in China in the last year.

Yum China said Tuesday that same-store sales plunged by 20% year-on-year in March, and likely maintained the same pace of decline in April. The company said it still intended to achieve its full-year target of 1,000 to 1,200 net new store openings.

Chinese companies cut earnings forecasts

For the first quarter, roughly half of MSCI China mainland stocks, excluding financials, missed first-quarter earnings expectations, with only about a quarter beating expectations, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note Tuesday.

The quarterly results were the worst since the first quarter of 2020, the analysts said.

That’s when the pandemic initially shocked the economy and GDP contracted.

Downward earnings revisions are likely to continue for another two to four weeks, the Morgan Stanley report said, noting all of the mainland traded stocks known as A shares have all reported first-quarter results as of April 30.

Overall decline in corporate sentiment

As U.S. businesses face a number of domestic challenges as well, Bank of America’s proprietary measure of corporate sentiment for S&P 500 stocks fell sharply in the first quarter to the lowest level since the second quarter of 2020, the firm said in a report Sunday.

The latest sentiment score points to a sharp drop in earnings ahead, although that is not BofA’s base case, the report said.

Several major corporate earnings are still ahead, including Disney and Toyota Motors results due out next Wednesday local time.

Shanghai Disney Resort has been closed since March 21 until further notice, while China’s auto sales slumped in March.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/from-estee-lauder-to-apple-chinas-covid-restrictions-take-their-toll.html

Pan-coronavirus vaccine pipeline takes form

 


 As debates over additional booster shots for COVID-19 intensify, many public health researchers are looking to the influenza model of vaccination as a guide for how to handle the lasting threat of SARS-CoV-2. That could mean annual shots, as is routine today with seasonal flu prophylaxis. But just as scientists have long sought a universal flu jab that can provide lasting protection against multiple subtypes of that respiratory virus, so too the field is on the hunt for pan-coronavirus vaccines that can ward off future variants of SARS-CoV-2 and preempt the next pandemic.

Dozens of non-profits, government agencies and vaccine makers have made these candidates a top research priority (Table 1). Leading the charge, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) have earmarked US$200 million and $43 million, respectively, for R&D into all-in-one coronavirus shots.

Table 1 | Selected pan-coronavirus vaccines in development

Vaccine

Sponsor

Properties

Status

Variant-proof COVID-19 vaccines

SpFN

US Army

Ferritin nanoparticle with prefusion-stabilized spike antigens from the Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2

Clinical

RBD–scNP

Duke University

Sortase A-conjugated ferritin nanoparticle with RBD antigens from early WA-1 strain of SARS-CoV-2

Preclinical

GRT-R910

Gritstone bio

Self-amplifying mRNA delivering spike and T cell epitopes

Clinical

hAd5-S+N

ImmunityBio

Spike and nucleocapsid antigens delivered via human adenovirus serotype 5 vector

Clinical

MigVax-101

MigVax

Oral subunit vaccine with RBD and nucleocapsid domains, adjuvanted

Preclinical

Pan-sarbecovirus vaccines

GBP511

SK bioscience

Mosaic nanoparticle containing RBDs from SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2 and 1–2 bat coronaviruses

Preclinical

Mosaic-8b

Caltech

Mosaic nanoparticle containing RBDs from SARS-CoV-2 and 7 animal coronaviruses

Preclinical

VBI-2901

VBI Vaccines

Virus-like particles expressing prefusion spike of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV

Preclinical

Pan-betacoronavirus vaccines

DIOS-CoVax

DIOSynVax

Needle-free injection of undisclosed antigens

Clinical

Other

mRNA-1287

Moderna

mRNA encoding antigens from four human-infecting coronaviruses that cause common colds

Preclinical

Each organization’s focus is different. CEPI, with an eye to near-term product development, is primarily backing platform development at small biotech companies. The NIAID is supporting more basic immunology discovery efforts in academia. But their shared overall objective prompted the two organizations to team up. In March, CEPI and the NIAID announced the creation of a joint scientific forum for their funded researchers to discuss their progress and work together toward safe and broadly protective jabs. Its first meeting is scheduled for 25 April.

The vaccine design and delivery strategies under consideration are diverse. They include mRNA- and protein nanoparticle-based technologies. Some vaccine candidates target only the spike protein that enables coronaviruses to enter host cells, while others are directed against additional parts of the viral proteome as well. Some aim to raise only antibody responses, others focus on cellular immunity, too.

“We have quite a nice mix of technologies and antigen designs,” says CEPI programme leader Christopher da Costa, who oversees the organization’s future-looking coronavirus vaccine portfolio. “It is about getting several shots on goal,” he adds. “I'm hoping within that pool, we have some success.”

But many researchers think that there are still too many immunological unknowns about how to keep the virus at bay to put much stock in the lead pan-coronavirus vaccines. Decades of failed attempts to develop universal vaccines for influenza and HIV — two other highly mutable viral foes — point to the challenges ahead.

“We have a pretty good sense that what we want to generate is broadly protective immunity that is durable, ideally for life,” says Wayne Koff, CEO of the non-profit Human Vaccines Project. There’s just one problem: “We don’t know how to do that.”

Panning for gold

The term “pan-coronavirus” gets bandied about to describe many ongoing vaccine development efforts, but the meaning of that phrase is fuzzy.

First, there are the improved COVID-19 vaccines that were designed to protect against any mutant forms that the SARS-CoV-2 virus could plausibly adopt. These might be better called pan-variant COVID-19 vaccines. But when lab tests reveal some degree of cross-protection against SARS-CoV-1 — the virus behind the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak — some vaccine developers are quick to adopt the more expansive pan-coronavirus label.

Among shots purposely designed to be more inclusive, the pan-coronavirus moniker takes on different meanings. Few, if any, scientists are developing truly universal candidates that would protect against all four major lineages of coronavirus. Most are instead taking aim either at sarbecoviruses, the subgenus that includes all the SARS-like viruses, or betacoronaviruses, the larger branch of the family tree that also counts the pathogen responsible for Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and some seasonal coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

Moderna’s ‘pan human coronavirus’ vaccine falls into a category of its own. Unveiled in March, the preclinical-stage candidate mRNA-1287 is designed to protect against endemic human-infecting coronaviruses — two alphacoronaviruses and two betacoronaviruses — that collectively cause 10–30% of all common colds in adults. According to Raffael Nachbagauer, head of infectious disease development at Moderna, this programme is not intended to prevent the next pandemic, but rather to “decrease the currently unaddressed disease burden from seasonal coronaviruses in the population.”

The vagueness of language around cross-clade coronavirus protection has led to “a lot of painful discussion” at CEPI about the best terms to use, da Costa says. The organization ultimately settled on “broadly protective” to describe any vaccine directed at multiple coronaviruses, and “variant-proof” or “variant-targeted” to describe next-generation COVID-19 jabs. It is supporting both types of development efforts. “The vision is that we would have a limited number of variant-targeted vaccines and a more substantial number of broadly protective vaccines going forward,” says da Costa.

CEPI has announced funding for eight projects to date, with more expected to come. Three take aim at emerging forms of SARS-CoV-2. All of these take advantage of novel protein subunit technologies to deliver parts of the spike protein containing mutations from variants of concern. One, from MigVax, is orally administered with a bacterial toxin serving as a mucosal adjuvant. Another, from Affinivax, is built around an antigen–polysaccharide conjugate platform. The third, from the University of Saskatchewan’s Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, will use a proprietary matrix to present antigens in a structured fashion.

The other five CEPI-backed efforts are geared toward deflecting a broader range of coronavirus threats. Three — from BioNet, DIOSynVax and NEC Corporation — will rely on computational modeling to identify novel vaccine antigens that can be used in mRNA delivery systems. The other two — one from India’s Translational Health Science and Technology Institute in collaboration with Panacea Biotec, the other from SK bioscience — are for multi-epitope, nanoparticle-based, protein subunit vaccines.

Mosaic approach

Among the five broadly protective vaccines in the CEPI portfolio, the SK candidate received the largest chunk of change. It looks to be closest to clinical evaluation as well.

Backed by up to $50 million from CEPI, the vaccine — named GBP511 — builds on the progress made with SK’s experimental COVID-19 jab GBP510, now in phase III testing. Both are adjuvanted products based on a two-part nanoparticle system developed at the University of Washington’s Institute for Protein Design. It displays 60 copies of the spike protein’s receptor-binding domain (RBD) in a trimeric form to induce potent immune responses.

But whereas GBP510 includes only RBDs from the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, GBP511 takes a mosaic approach to present more antigens. It displays three or four RBDs from human- and bat-infecting viruses — from all three clades of the sarbecovirus phylogeny — to generate cross-reactive B cells that will bind to conserved epitopes shared by different RBDs. This multivalent antigen presentation, the thinking goes, should lead to selective activation and expansion of immune cells with broadly protective capabilities.

SK’s academic collaborators demonstrated as much last September in proof-of-concept experiments in mice and monkeys. The South Korean biotech is gearing up to launch a first-in-human study by the end of 2023.

Structural biologist Pamela Bjorkman from the California Institute of Technology has developed a similar mosaic RBD nanoparticle construct, first described in January 2021. It uses the same icosahedral nanoparticle at its core, but is decorated with RBDs from eight sarbecoviruses — six of these infect bats, one infects pangolins and one comes from the Beta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

In Bjorkman’s vaccine, the RBDs are arranged by chance, with a low probability of identical antigens landing next to each other. SK’s self-assembling nanoparticles, by contrast, use RBDs organized non-randomly in groups of three — a structural difference that may impact the likelihood of stimulating cross-reactive antibody responses. “If they’re randomly distributed,” Bjorkman says, “you should activate B cells that bind to regions of the receptor-binding domain that are more conserved.”

A preprint that Bjorkman’s team posted online in March supports this conclusion. The team’s eight-part mosaic nanoparticle vaccine offered broad protection to mice — “as hypothesized,” says Bjorkman. She is seeking financial support to advance the candidate into human trials.

Breadth of immunity

Among ‘pan-variant’ vaccines with some cross-clade potential, a few candidates are farther along. The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Silver Spring, Maryland, for example, is developing an adjuvanted nanoparticle vaccine candidate, prepared by conjugating a self-oligomerizing protein called ferritin to prefusion-stabilized versions of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Results from a 29-person phase I study are expected in the coming weeks.

Army researchers call it a pan-coronavirus vaccine because in mouse and monkey studies the shot elicited robust humoral and cell-mediated immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and SARS-CoV-1. When given as a booster after two priming doses of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines, the scope of immunity might be even greater.

Immunologists Barton Haynes and Kevin Saunders from Duke University demonstrated as much last year when they administered their own ferritin nanoparticle shot to monkeys primed with an mRNA vaccine. (Duke’s vaccine candidate uses a more modular manufacturing protocol as well as RBD antigens based on an early Washington state isolate instead of full-length spike proteins derived from the original Wuhan strain, but is otherwise quite similar to the Army’s candidate.) “With the boost, you get all this breadth,” Haynes says.

“We were hitting bat viruses, pangolin viruses, SARS-CoV-1,” he continues. “Not MERS because the RBD is very different, but everything within the sarbecovirus group.” As measured by antibody binding titres, the immune responses achieved with a nanoparticle design were greater than those achieved with a soluble RBD vaccine comparator. A recent preprint suggests that the type of adjuvant formulation also matters.

Haynes hopes to move his ferritin nanoparticle vaccine into clinical trials next year — and he received a $17.5 million, 3-year grant from the NIAID’s new Pan-Coronavirus Vaccine Development Program to support those efforts. But the money is also meant to underwrite immunogen design efforts. Plus, part of the grant is dedicated to advancing new types of mRNA or self-amplifying RNA constructs that can confer pan-betacoronavirus protection.

Last year, Haynes and his colleagues, led by University of North Carolina virologist Ralph Baric, described one strategy for broadening the benefits of the mRNA platform. They designed sequences coding for a chimeric protein that assembles different parts of spike — the RBD, the N-terminal domain and the S2 subunit — taken from human- and bat-infecting sarbecoviruses. When packaged in lipid nanoparticles (LNPs), these mRNA sequences triggered wide-ranging protection in mice.

“This is an alternative to the mosaic approach to get breadth in the response,” Haynes says.

In principle, the same sequences could be encoded in self-amplifying RNAs, which might enable lower dosing regimens and better immune responses. Haynes’s team is exploring use of such constructs, which contain both the antigenic sequences and the machinery needed for the RNA to copy itself.

Game plan

Although the Duke project is heavily geared toward platform development, the other three beneficiaries of the NIAID pan-coronavirus initiative — at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and at Rockefeller University — are far more focused on basic immunology questions. “There’s still a lot of science that’s not known,” points out programme officer Jennifer Gordon. The hope is that a better understanding of the natural immune responses to coronavirus infections will ultimately yield better vaccine designs.

“Part of the fundamental discovery is understanding what the trade-offs look like,” says grantee Duane Wesemann, an immunologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. Last year, Wesemann and his colleagues identified a potential antigenic target — the spike protein’s conserved stem, or S2, region — that yields antibodies that are associated with reduced mortality from COVID-19, quicker healing and improved immune durability following disease resolution.

Those same antibodies also provide enhanced recognition breadth across betacoronaviruses. But they offer weaker neutralization capacity than antibodies directed at spike’s more variable head, the target of all first-generation COVID-19 vaccines. Further work is needed to determine which profile is best for a broadly protective vaccine intended to prevent zoonotic spillovers.

Similar challenges have faced researchers aiming to direct immune responses against the stalk region of haemagglutinin, the main conserved protein target of universal influenza vaccines. Given the many setbacks in that field, Wesemann hopes that coronavirus researchers will have some humility about the immunological obstacles in front of them.

“Everyone wants to go ahead and throw the Hail Mary,” he says. With luck, that will work. But a more careful consideration of immunological parameters would increase the odds of success. “We need to learn how to block and tackle to improve our chances in future Super Bowls,” Wesemann says.

In particular, more insight is needed into how the quality of T cell immunity impacts protection. Many researchers expect that for pan-coronavirus vaccines to succeed, they will have to provide robust and broad protection via multiple T cell subsets as well as antibody-mediated pathways. “To really have a highly effective vaccine, you’re going to need to be able to elicit both neutralizing antibodies and T cells,” says Corey Casper, president and CEO of Access to Advanced Health Institute.

Casper is working closely with ImmunityBio, part of Patrick Soon-Shiong’s NantWorks portfolio of companies, to develop dual-antigen vaccines that include both spike and nucleocapsid (N) components. Nucleocapsid is an internal RNA-binding protein, and has long been viewed as an important target for T cell responses that might confer broad protection. “Once you have N in your construct, you have a good shot at having this pan-coronavirus [protection],” Soon-Shiong says.

ImmunityBio’s first product — built around a human adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) platform — is now being trialed as a booster among recipients of Johnson & Johnson’s spike-only adenoviral-vectored vaccine. But in addition to thinking beyond spike, the company is also developing a “mix-and-match” delivery strategy to improve outcomes.

In mice, a self-amplifying RNA prime followed by an Ad5 boost seemed to enhance the durability and breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity, the company showed in a pre-print. This mirrors results from people who received heterologous prime–boost immunization regimens of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines, which conferred greater breadth of reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

Lin-Fa Wang, a virologist at the Duke–National University of Singapore Medical School, is advancing a heterologous vaccination strategy of his own. Last year, Wang and colleagues reported that people with 20-year-old SARS-CoV-1 infections who received an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine produced a swathe of pan-sarbecovirus neutralizing antibodies. This observation led Wang’s team to engineer a consensus spike protein from a group of SARS-CoV-1-related viruses. He hopes to formulate this either as a protein subunit vaccine or as an mRNA-based shot.

Unpublished mouse studies suggest that priming with a COVID-19 vaccine and then boosting with this experimental shot could promote the same kinds of immune responses as those seen in SARS-CoV-1 survivors. Discussions with potential commercial partners are ongoing, says Wang.

Meanwhile, other companies that are moving beyond spike-only designs include TechImmune, ConserV Bioscience and Gritstone bio. The challenge for any of these firms, as immunologist Gaurav Gaiha from the Ragon Institute sees it, is finding T cell epitopes that are mutationally constrained, to allow for coronavirus-spanning recognition, and highly immunogenic. “That’s the optimal sweet spot,” Gaiha says.

Without the urgency of a new pandemic threat or the whatever-it-costs budget of an Operation Warp Speed, it is unlikely that pan-coronavirus vaccine development will move at the breakneck speed of the 2020 vaccine race. But all the scientific and technological advances of the past two years has buoyed the field — and researchers are confident that finding a broadly protective shot against coronaviruses will not prove as hard as it has been for HIV or flu. “At the end of the day, we need a vaccine that is not only durable, but has a huge breadth of coverage,” Soon-Shiong says. “Can we get there? I truly believe we can.”

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-022-00074-6

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-022-00074-6

CUNY: Only 27% of adult New Yorkers infected during initial omicron surge

 Despite New York City getting hit hard this winter by the initial omicron wave, its case rates are climbing back into danger zones.

On Monday, New York City health officials raised the COVID alert level from low to medium — citing a persistent uptick in cases that has pushed the collective risk above the limits defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

This upgrade happened even though the city’s alert level and the CDC’s rankings prioritize hospital burden rather than community transmission. Citywide case rates are now, on average, over 200 cases per 100,000 (100k) residents over the past seven days — the threshold needed to automatically qualify as medium risk by the CDC.

A new study from epidemiologists at City University of New York can help explain why cases are still rising — even while hundreds of thousands of residents are carrying immunity from omicron due to winter infections.

The report, released last Thursday on the preprint database Medrxiv, estimates that only about a quarter of New York City adults caught omicron during the first three months of 2022. That was just after the variant began accounting for more than 90% of cases in the region.

Based on these findings, a majority of adults — about 72% — would still be susceptible to catching omicron and its ever-expanding bouquet of subvariants. These estimates also help pinpoint which communities and demographics were least hit during the winter wave.


“We're able to make generalizable estimates among people by age, by gender, by race, ethnicity, by education, status, income, and borough. We also looked at vaccination status as well,” said Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiology professor at City University of New York, who led the study. “We can look at the extent to which vulnerable New Yorkers were infected during the surge, the people that we're trying to protect.”

The report also gives clues to how many infections are being missed due to city officials not collecting the results of most at-home tests. The CUNY team said only about 5% of adults who tested positive during those early months exclusively used at-home tests, while about three times as many opted for testing with a health provider.

“Our worry was that changes in testing behaviors and practices — one big example of which is the exclusive use of at-home testing — could kind of undermine our understanding of what the routine testing data on cases really means over time,” Nash said.

How the study was done

To glean these patterns, Nash and his colleagues conducted a representative survey of about 1,000 New York City adults in mid-March. They asked the respondents about their testing history since January 1st, which is right about the peak of the omicron surge in New York City. Questions included: How many tests had they taken since New Year's Day? How many were positive? How many were negative? Where did they test: at home or at clinic? And given cases also happen among some folks who never get tested, people were asked if they ever experienced a range COVID symptoms.

From there, the CUNY team built weighted averages for how many infections occurred, estimating that 27% of city adults — about 1.8 million — caught the BA.1 omicron subvariant during those opening months of the year. Last week, the CDC came to a similar conclusion in a study about the nationwide prevalence of omicron infections.

“If you look at the CDC data, they estimate between 10% and 30% of people in the U.S. were infected during the omicron surge,” Nash said. “Our estimates are kind of in line and suggest it's a bit higher. That makes sense to me because we're in New York City, and our surge was pretty significant.”

CUNY’s estimates also mirror analyses from other local epidemiologists who’ve tried to extrapolate the full burden of infections based on the official record of cases, which only accounts for tests taken at clinics. Official tallies only found about 552,000 cases of all ages between January 1st and March 16th of this year.

“Our estimate was 1.8 million New Yorkers,” said Dr. Anna Bershteyn, an assistant professor in the department of population health at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine. "So it's in the same ballpark, and it just reflects the extreme amount of under-diagnosis that was happening during the wave.”

 People ages 25-34 had the highest prevalence, with 37% estimated to have been infected with BA.1 omicron. 

Breaking down CUNY’s results by demographics shows who caught omicron the most often during the winter surge. People ages 25-34 had the highest prevalence, with 37% estimated to have been infected with BA.1 omicron. They were followed closely by adults ages 45-54. People without high school diplomas had the highest estimated rate (34%) in terms of education level.

Males were more likely than females and non-binary people. Hispanic groups had the biggest ethnic prevalence with 41% infected, followed by Asian/Pacific Islanders at 27%, white New Yorkers at 21% and Blacks at 20%.

Vaccinated people also had a higher infection rate than the unvaccinated, which, on the surface, may seem counterintuitive. But the majority of the city’s population had had at least one shot during omicron’s early months, and vaccine mandates were still in place — meaning if a person was exposed, they were more likely to be vaccinated.

Why are so many New Yorkers still susceptible to omicron infection?

When the omicron variant emerged in November, it reset the field on who is susceptible to catching the coronavirus. Its mutations are so dramatic that immunity tuned to earlier variants cannot stop the virus from entering our bodies. This rule applies to vaccinated people, too, because the vaccines were designed based on early variants.

The bright side is that if you were one of 1.8 million adults infected BA.1 omicron, it's very likely that you're protected against BA.2 and BA.3 as well, said Dr. Ned Landau, a microbiology professor at New York University Grossman School of Medicine, who studies coronavirus antibodies.

“If you got vaccinated, boosted and then got BA.1 or any omicron, I think you're very strongly protected against getting infected again — or certainly against getting sick,” Landau said. “But those 75% [or so] that you're talking about would still be susceptible to BA.1, BA.2 or BA.3.”

New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Ashwin Vasan said Monday that as a practical matter, moving from low to medium risk means that New Yorkers must exercise even greater caution than they have the last few weeks. He said vaccination and boosters are as critical as ever, and that eligible people should go get their booster doses now.

“We moved into medium this morning on the basis of our case transmission rate. We also look at our hospitalization rate and our bed occupancy rate,” Vasan said at a press conference on Monday. “On hospitalizations, we see a slight increase. On bed occupancy, we’re relatively stable. Both of those would have to jump up to a higher a significantly higher level for us to move into a higher risk category."

But the city stopped short of reinstating mask requirements, even though health department guidance says that the mayor's office should consider requiring masks in schools and other crowded settings when the alert level reaches medium. They opted for a “strong” recommendation, instead.”

“With the rising risks, we need to take rising precautions. New Yorkers, mask up when you're indoors,” Vasan said. “Regardless of whether you know the vaccination status of the people around you, mask up, it's the safe thing to do."

The city health department also wants all New Yorkers to think about getting tested before and after any gatherings, and if they test positive, call their doctor or 212-COVID19 to get evaluated for treatment like antiviral pills or monoclonal therapies.

Landau added that it is important to distinguish between protection from infection and protection from disease. The vaccines and immunity from pre-omicron cases don't protect well against infection now, but those defenses still work against severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and death, for the majority of people, especially if they get their first boosters.

The exceptions are senior citizens or anyone with a moderate or severe immunocompromising condition — both of which struggle to maintain their immune defenses. That’s why second boosters are recommended for these groups, which comprise millions of people nationwide.

Landau wondered if the public discussion has become too focused on the emergence of new omicron subvariants — and if the message on people’s actual risk is getting lost in the confusion.

“This idea of just naming these viruses, giving them a different name, scares people to some extent,” Landau said. “It's all omicron. If you're vaccinated and boosted, you're going to be in good shape.”


https://gothamist.com/news/cuny-only-27-of-adult-new-yorkers-infected-during-initial-omicron-wave

Fauci: 'Areas like Michigan still face severe mis-, disinformation on COVID'

 The chief medical adviser to the White House says Michigan is battling more than COVID-19 – it’s fighting bad information about the virus.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, acknowledges some internet sources target groups like Detroit’s majority African American population, trying to discredit COVID-19 vaccinations by raising the specter of past medical experimentation on Black people.

And Fauci says inaccurate data spreads faster over the internet than solid reporting about vaccines.

“It’s a very difficult problem to address,” he says.

One of the ways people can combat disinformation and misinformation is to “flood the system with correct information, information from health officials, like the CDC, from local public health officials,” Fauci says.

“I don’t have an easy solution except to tell people that if you look at things like vaccination, the evidence for vaccines protecting you from severe disease and death, compared to unvaccinated people is overwhelmingly obvious. You just need to look at the data.”

Fauci says health officials are studying what kind of COVID-19 vaccine booster shots are necessary to stem the virus during the fall season. If people received the initial two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, they “should unequivocally get the third shot. No question about that.”

As for a fourth shot, he says people who are immunocompromised or have underlying conditions like asthma or diabetes should get it. Age is also a factor. “The older [you are] the more likely you should get [a fourth dose],” Fauci says.

It was a factor for Fauci, who recently declined an invitation to join the first White House Correspondents Association dinner held since the start of the pandemic, an event that brings thousands of people together indoors.

Fauci says several factors drove his decision, including the fact that he’s 81 and other personal health considerations.

Fauci made news recently by telling an interviewer the U.S. was out of the pandemic phase of COVID-19 before later clarifying he meant the nation is transitioning to a less acute stage.

“We should not be mistaken in thinking that the pandemic is over,” Fauci says. “It is clear that with the new variants, BA.2, that’s circulating, and even a subvariant of that there is an uptick in infections throughout most of the United States.”

https://wdet.org/2022/05/03/fauci-michigan-still-faces-severe-problem-of-misinformation-and-disinformation-on-covid-19/