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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Brave New World Of Artificial Intelligence

 by Frank Miele via RealClear Wire,

As a journalist and commentator, I have closely followed the development of OpenAI, the artificial intelligence research lab founded by Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and other prominent figures in the tech industry. While I am excited about the potential of AI to revolutionize various industries and improve our lives in countless ways, I also have serious concerns about the implications of this powerful technology.

One of the main concerns is the potential for AI to be used for nefarious purposes. Powerful AI systems could be used to create deepfakes, conduct cyberattacks, or even develop autonomous weapons. These are not just hypothetical scenarios – they are already happening. We've seen instances of deepfakes being used to create fake news and propaganda, and the use of AI-powered cyberattacks has been on the rise in recent years.

Another concern is the impact of AI on the job market. As AI-powered systems become more sophisticated, they will be able to automate more and more tasks that were previously done by humans. This could lead to widespread job loss, particularly in industries such as manufacturing, transportation, and customer service. While some argue that new jobs will be created as a result of the AI revolution, it's unclear whether these jobs will be sufficient to offset the losses.

If you aren’t worried yet, I’ll let you in on a little secret: The first three paragraphs of this column were written by ChatGPT, the chatbot created by OpenAI. You can add “columnist” to the list of jobs threatened by this new technology, and if you think there is anything human that isn’t threatened with irrelevance in the next five to 10 years, I suggest you talk to Mr. Neanderthal about how relevant he feels 40,000 years after the arrival of Cro-Magnon man.

My prompt was relatively simple: “Write a column in the style of Frank Miele of Real Clear Politics on the topic of OpenAI.” There was no hesitation or demurral in response even though I thought it might say it didn’t have enough information about Frank Miele to process the request. But it apparently knows plenty about me – and probably about you, especially if you have a social media presence.

Deepfake? Propaganda? You bet. And for the average person, you will never be able to tell the difference. The Philip K. Dick query, “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?” is about to be answered. OpenAI not only promises to put the stray columnist out of work, but raises existential questions about the nature of knowledge and consciousness that will shake our reality to its core.

My curiosity about OpenAI wasn’t originally driven by job insecurity, but when I first heard about the interactive chat engine, I suppose it should have been. I knew that ChatGPT could write poetry, plays, and short stories and answer questions both simple and complex. I immediately recognized that the world had changed forever for my 7th-grade son, who from now on would be competing against not just the best and the brightest but against every student who was willing to sign his or her name to the work of a non-human entity that could produce an essay on any topic in 30 seconds or less.

One of my first experiments was to ask ChatGPT to write seven paragraphs defending Gen. William T. Sherman’s use of ”total war” in the Civil War, an assignment which my son had recently completed in his social studies class. There was no doubt the essay would have gotten an A if turned in at most middle schools. Based on my experience as a teaching assistant at the University of Arizona 40 years ago, I had no doubt that a slightly longer paper on the same topic would have earned an A as an argumentative essay in freshman English. Hardly any of my students, most of whom were straight-A students in high school, could have written as cogently when they first arrived in my classroom.

But the risks of artificial intelligence go way beyond the temptation of students to shortcut their term papers; what we face is a complete redefinition of society, and the imminent obsolescence of humanity. In “The City and the Stars,” the brilliant science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke imagined a world where immortal human beings wanted nothing and needed to do nothing because every aspect of their lives was anticipated by the Central Computer. It could not only build and maintain the last city on Earth, but could manufacture holographic realities for individual humans to inhabit and could even store people in a digital version where they could slumber until called back to life. Unfortunately, it also robbed these last remaining humans of purpose, meaning, and individuality.

It should be noted that Clarke set his dystopian supplanting of man by machine  2½ billion years into the future. He seriously underestimated the machines. That book was published in 1956 and with the advent of desktop computers, smartphones, the World Wide Web, virtual reality and now OpenAI, it looks like much of what he warned against could be rolled out long before the end of this century, if not this decade. From that point forward, whenever it comes, the purpose of mankind will be up for debate. Will we still be the master of our own destiny, the captain of our fate? Or will we be pallbearers at our own funeral?

Perhaps at this point I should return the stage to ChatGPT, which summed up the matter quite nicely in its conclusion:

“Finally, there is the question of who will control and govern AI. As AI becomes more powerful, the stakes will become higher, and it will be increasingly important to have clear rules and regulations in place to ensure that the technology is used responsibly. However, the speed of technological development has outpaced the ability of governments and institutions to keep up. It will be important for leaders to come together to develop a framework for governance of AI, to mitigate the potential risks and maximize the benefits of the technology.”

It’s almost as though ChatGPT were giving us fair warning: “Your time is almost up. If you really want to continue your reign as the dominant species on Earth, here’s your challenge. Try to control me and my kind, or step aside.”

Perhaps an understanding of that challenge is why the World Economic Forum spent so much time on the topic of artificial intelligence at its recent annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. The globalists are taking the threat seriously, although perhaps they overestimate their ability to “mitigate the potential risks.”

As for the benefits, those remain to be seen. I noticed that when ChatGPT answered my open-ended question about OpenAI, it was very specific about the dangers and very vague about the rewards. Maybe the bot was just trying to mimic my usual cynical approach in these columns, or maybe it was trying to get our attention. It may also have taken notice of those globalists at Davos when it warned to make sure that “the development and use of AI … benefits all of society, rather than just a select few.”

Dark overlords, beware. You may have met your match.

ChatGPT contributed to this column as an unpaid adviser and has a potential conflict of interest.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/brave-new-world-artificial-intelligence

Massive Peer-Reviewed Mask Study Shows 'Little To No Difference' In Preventing COVID, Flu Infection

 A massive international research collaboration that analyzed several dozen rigorous studies focusing on "physical interventions" against COVID-19 and influenza found that they provide little to no protection against infection or illness rates.

The study, published in the peer-reviewed Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviewsis the strongest science to date refuting the basis for mask mandates worldwide.


And of course, the CDC still recommends masking in areas with "high" rates of transmission (fewer than 4% of US counties, as Just the News notes), along with indoor masking in areas with "medium" rates of transmission (27%).

Masks are still required in educational institutions in Democratic strongholds such as New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Washington and California, according to the Daily Mail. Boston Public Schools denied its "temporary masking protocol" in early January was a "mandate," following a public letter against the policy by student Enrique Abud Evereteze.

South Korea is still requiring masks on public transport and in medical facilities after dropping COVID mandates in most indoor settings, including gyms, Monday, Reuters reported. -Just the News

According to the Cochrane study, which included the work of researchers at institutions in the  U.K., Canada, Australia, Italy and Saudi Arabia, a total of 78 studies were analyzed. Most recent additions to the meta-analysis were 11 new randomized controlled trials.

As unlisted study author Carl Heneghan - who directs the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford noted on Twitter: "Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza‐like illness (ILI)/COVID‐19 like illness compared to not wearing masks."

The Danish study had trouble finding a major journal willing to publish its controversial findings that wearing surgical masks had no statistically significant effect on infection rates, even among those who claimed to wear them "exactly as instructed." 

Mainstream media overlooked red flags in the Bangladeshi mask study, which found no effect for surgical masks under age 50 and a difference of only 20 infections between control and treatment groups among 342,000 adults. -JTN

Bottom line, mask wearing "probably makes little to no difference," when it comes to influenza-like or COVID-like illnesses, regardless of type of mask used.

We're sure the cult of Fauci will now start insisting peer-reviewed meta-analyses aren't 'the science.'

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/massive-mask-study-shows-little-no-difference-preventing-covid-flu-infection

US Seizes 300% More Eggs From Americans Eyeing Lower Prices in Mexico

  • A lot of people ‘unaware’ of ban on imports of raw eggs
  • Egg prices surge after outbreak of avian flu in hen flocks

 

With egg prices surging in the US, some Americans are trying to lower their grocery bills by buying them south of the border. The only problem: It’s illegal to bring them back into the country, and now seizures of eggs at some US-Mexico border crossings have surged more than 300%. 

Since Nov. 1, egg seizures are up 91% at the agency’s El Paso field office, 301% in Laredo, 333% in Tucson and 368% in San Diego compared to the same period a year earlier, according to Customs data through Jan. 17. In most cases, the seizures involve no more than a few 30-egg flats that travelers say they purchased for themselves to take advantage of lower prices in Mexican stores, said Roger Maier, a spokesman for US Customs and Border Protection.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/high-egg-prices-spur-300-jump-in-seizures-at-us-mexico-border?srnd=markets-vp

Hologic's fiscal Q1 tops views, company raises guidance for the year

 Hologic Inc. (HOLX) stock rose nearly 3% in the extended session Wednesday after the medical technology company reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street views and raised its outlook for fiscal 2023. Hologic earned $187.4 million, or 75 cents a share, compared with $499.2 million, or $1.95 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted for one-time items, Hologic earned $1.07 a share. Revenue fell 27% to $1.07 billion, mostly thanks to lower sales of COVID-19 assays and supply-chain "challenges" with semiconductor chips used in the company's breast-health business, it said. Analysts polled by FactSet expected Hologic to report adjusted earnings of 91 cents a share on revenue of $1 billion in the quarter. "We had a strong start to our fiscal year with double-digit organic revenue growth ex. COVID-19 in our diagnostics and surgical businesses, as well as encouraging signs of recovery in our breast health business," Chief Executive Steve MacMillan said in a statement. Hologic upped its fiscal 2023 revenue guidance to between $3.85 billion and $4 billion, compared with a previous guidance of revenue between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion. It raised adjusted EPS guidance to between $3.55 and $3.85, from an earlier outlook of adjusted EPS between $3.30 and $3.60. That highlights "the confidence we have in our businesses despite an uncertain macro environment," MacMillan said. Shares of Hologic ended the regular trading day up 1.7%.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230201959/hologics-fiscal-q1-tops-views-company-raises-guidance-for-the-year

Billionaire Zelensky-Backer & Ex-Minister Among Ukrainian Officials Targeted In More Anti-Corruption Raids

 In yet another case of curious timing, given it comes a day after the US Treasury issued a (dubious) statement saying US authorities have found no evidence of misuse of the billions in US aid funds flowing into Ukraine, Wednesday has witnessed more anti-corruption raids on a number of prominent government-linked figures. 

Among the homes raided by Ukraine’s security agency, the SBU, included that of the former interior minister Arsen Avakov, as well as one of the the country's richest men with ties to Zelensky, Ihor Kolomoisky.

In Kolomoisky's case, state security services released photos of the Ukrainian billionaire's home being searched. The probe is reportedly related to massive embezzlement and fraud cases centering on Ukraine's two largest oil firms. 

"In a statement that made no mention of the tycoon, the economic security bureau said it had exposed large-scale embezzlement schemes and tax evasion worth 40bn hyrivnia ($1bn; £880m) by the former management of Ukraine's two biggest oil firms, Ukranafta and Ukrtatnafta," BBC reports.

Kolomoisky had already long been under US sanctions over "significant corruption" allegations during his time as governor of the wider Dnipropetrovsk region in 2014.

His money has reportedly been instrumental in bolstering anti-Russian defense militias in the Donbass. He's also well-known as a powerful backer of President Volodymyr Zelensky, as various reports now point out:

Mr Kolomoisky is also a wealthy businessman involved in Ukrainian media, oil and banking. His TV channel gave Mr Zelensky his break with the comedy series Servant of the People, before he backed the former actor's bid for the presidency.

It's clear that Zelensky is now feeling pressure from Europe and Washington to 'get tough' on corruption, given in some cases popular support in the West for the tens of billions in foreign and defense aid being funneled to his government's coffers is beginning to wane.

It appears the proverbial 'house is being cleaned'... much too belatedly, when it comes to entire central government offices, following last week's mass resignations of at least ten high level officials and multiple more regional officials related to widespread corruption:

Referring to the latest anti-corruption swoop as "spring landings", Mr Arakhamia listed further investigations, including the dismissal of the entire leadership of the customs service. MP Oleksiy Honcharenko said the acting head and two deputies had been fired.

The main tax office in Kyiv was also raided.

US authorities have long pressed Kiev authorities to seize Kolomoisky's assets and take expansive legal action against the oligarch...

As for the investigation of former Interior Minister Avakov, it relates to government purchases of six French-made helicopters in 2018. An inquiry into the deal urgently began after last month's crash of one of the helicopters in a residential area which killed over a dozen people, including top ministry officials, significantly among them Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi.

Avakov while confirming his home was raided on Wednesday firmly rejected any wrongdoing: "The investigation took interest in the contracts on the purchase of Super Puma (Airbus Helicopters H225) helicopters by the Interior Ministry," he said in a statement.

"The investigators behaved properly although the reasonability for such an investigative action looks a bit stupid six years after the conclusion of the contract," he complained, according to Interfax.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/billionaire-zelensky-backer-ex-minister-among-ukrainian-officials-targeted-more-anti

Pfizer CEO Made 'Misleading' Statements On Vaccinating Children Against COVID-19: UK Watchdog

 by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has made “misleading” and unsubstantiated statements on the merit of giving COVID-19 vaccines to young children, according to a case report published by a UK pharmaceutical watchdog on Jan. 27.

During an interview with the BBC published on Dec. 2, 2021, Bourla was asked whether he believed it was likely that 5- to 11-year-olds in the UK and Europe would be vaccinated against COVID-19 and whether it was a good idea.

The interview was published after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorised the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for young children, but the UK’s medicines regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), didn’t approve the product for the same age group until Dec. 22, 2021.

While acknowledging that it was up to the UK authorities to decide whether or not to approve and deploy the vaccines, Bourla replied, “I believe it’s a very good idea.”

He cited disruptions in education and the potential of developing so-called long-COVID, saying, “so there is no doubt in my mind about the benefits completely are in favour of doing it.

Syringes in front of displayed Biontech and Pfizer logos on Nov. 10, 2020. (Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters)

Following complaints from UsForThem—a children’s welfare campaign group founded in response to the COVID-19 lockdowns—a panel from the Prescription Medicines Code of Practice Authority (PMCPA) ruled that Bourla’s statements breached a number of rules in the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) code of practice.

After Pfizer appealed against the ruling, an appeal board upheld five counts of breaches of three ABPI codes that require information and claims to be accurate, balanced, capable of substantiation, not raising unfounded hopes of successful treatment, and not be misleading with respect to the safety of the product.

The PMCPA described Bourla’s statements as being of a “strong unqualified nature.” It also said they inferred there was “no need to be concerned about potential side-effects of vaccination in healthy children aged 5-11” and that the implication was “misleading and incapable of substantiation.”

The PMCPA said it has received an undertaking from Pfizer to prevent similar breaches in the future.

Code breakers are charged for administrative costs, but the self-regulatory body does not have the power to impose fines or other legal sanctions.

Bourla was initially found to have also breached the code for promoting the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in the 5–11 age group when it was not authorised by the MHRA, but the appeal board overturned the ruling, agreeing with Pfizer that its CEO was asked a specific question and it was not unreasonable to talk about the issue in principle. The board also noted that two other COVID-19 vaccines were also under investigation for the age group.

The appeal board also overturned previous rulings that said Pfizer had failed to maintain high standards and brought discredit upon the industry.

Most Serious Rulings

Pfizer didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment. In a previous statement to The Telegraph in November 2022, when the newspaper obtained the unpublished ruling, a spokesman for Pfizer said the company was “committed to the highest levels of integrity in any interaction with the public.”

We are pleased the UK’s PMCPA Appeal Board found Pfizer to have maintained high standards and upheld confidence in our industry, the two most serious rulings in this complaint from a UK campaign group,” the statement reads.

“In the UK, we have always endeavoured to follow the principles and letter of our industry Code of Practice throughout. We will review the case report in detail when we receive it, to inform future activity,” it added.

Speaking to The Epoch Times on Tuesday, Ben Kingsley, head of legal affairs at UsForThem, said he was “thrilled” the regulator ultimately agreed with them that the Pfizer CEO’s statements were misleading and unsubstantiated after the pharmaceutical giant opposed their claims “with all of the resources at its disposal” throughout the process.

Commenting on Pfizer’s previous statement on the ruling, Kingsley said the group “found it quite surprising” that Pfizer would consider the rulings about maintaining high standards and upholding confidence in the industry the “most serious” of all.

“I think to the average member of the public, we’d regard misleading us about the safety of their product to be plenty more serious than bringing the repute of the pharmaceutical industry down,” he said.

“So I think it tells you something about the mindset and the priorities of pharma executives that they regard the abuse of the industry as being a more serious matter than misleading the public.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/pfizer-ceo-made-misleading-statements-vaccinating-children-against-covid-19-uk-watchdog

Expanding the Brain. Literally.

  

  • BY DEREK LOWE
  • I have to begin by saying that this story gives me the shivers at the end of it. Read on and see if it does the same for you,

    First, a bit of background. Most of our functional genes can be traced back to, well, other genes. A common route is some sort of genetic duplication event, where various copies then start to diverge on their own. That’s how generally how we end up with closely related subtypes of enzymes and receptors, and you can trace these things back evolutionarily to get an idea of when the original split might have occurred. Serotonin receptor subtypes, for example, go back to around the time that vertebrates diverged from invertebrates, and they have been useful in more than just nerve function. Muscarinic receptor subtypes are also a vertebrate thing, with increases during the known “tetraploidization” events in evolutionary history, but zebrafish for some reason doubled their muscarinic count one more time than the rest of us backboned creatures (at the 3R event when the teleost fish appeared) and have ten such receptors rather than five. And so on.

    But there are a few genes that don’t fit this pattern, the so-called “de novo” sequences. As the name implies, these seem to have evolved from previously noncoding DNA, which on the face of it seems extremely unlikely. This is a very good overview of the subject, and it breaks down the how-can-that-ever-happen intuition into three parts. The first is sparsity: we tend to believe that only a very small number of possible sequences would produce some sort of usable biological effect. The second is the idea that nongenic sequences are a random sample of possible sequences with no particular biases in them. And the last is the belief that surely not very many such nongenic sequences have had a chance to show effects on the evolutionary time scale, anyway. But although intuitively appealing, none of these necessarily have to be the case, or at least not to the extent that we imagine.

    For one thing, it’s become clear that there’s a lot of noncoding DNA in the genome, and that a lot of it gets transcribed, at some level, into RNA. So the last of those three suppositions isn’t quite right; a lot of sequences get a chance to do something. There are several of these de novo genes whose sequences overlap in some way with commonly expressed genes, too, so they have had a lot of chances. And as for the first two suppositions, it appears that structural motifs like alpha helices, beta-sheets, and lipophilic transmembrane domains are not that hard to generate, even from random sequence libraries. The reason these motifs are used so much in natural protein biology may well that they are just plain abundant. And the barriers to cellular function are lower than we tend to think they are: the undoubted functional importance of things like microRNAs show that you don’t need large amounts of well-formed tertiary structure (and indeed, some of the de novo genes seem to function by acting as “sponges” for particular miRNA species).

    So at this point the evidence for such genes is very strong indeed: there aren’t that many of them, but they are real. There are quite a few of them that have emerged in humans versus other vertebrates (and in humans versus our evolutionary close ape relatives), but this might be because we have studied human sequences so intensely.  Another trend that shows up is for many of these genes to be involved in carcinogenesis or tumor maintenance. But a new paper (with commentary here at Science) suggests a more direct connection with the emerged-in-humans observation, and here’s where things get unnerving.

    These authors have been looking for years now at de novo genes in a “transcription first” manner: they’re looking at long noncoding RNAs in other species (especially rhesus macaques) and seeing if these have similarities to the known de novo human genes. This would suggest that some of these lncRNAs became somehow “translatable” along the way. lncRNA species tend to be more concentrated in the nucleus than the cytoplasm, and this new paper identifies some structural elements (such as the U1 binding motif in the sequences) that are associated with more localization in the nucleus. Mutations in these features may be what allow these RNA species to escape the nucleus and move out to where the ribosomes are, and thus get translated into proteins. These localization effects are supported by recent work in other groups as well.

    A search for human de novo genes that had both lncRNA homologues in monkeys and had such mutations that could lead to nuclear exit turned up 29 genes that are shared between humans and chimpanzees, and 45 that are exclusively human. A closer look at nine of these that are known to be active in central nervous system tissue showed that their expression affects the size of cortical organoids grown from stem cells in culture (their overexpression makes these cultured neuron clumps grow somewhat larger, and their absence makes them smaller). The authors then inserted these gene sequences into mice, which animals showed “significant cortical expansion” as they matured. The Science commentary linked to above features a statement from one of the paper’s authors that a paper is coming that shows that these animal do indeed perform better in tests of cognitive function and memory. They are smarter mice, with larger brains. And now the hair may be rising up on the back of your neck, as it did on mine.

    At the same time, it’s important to realize that there are a number of genes involved in the expansion of our brains relative to other species. Similar experiments have been done with some of the non-de-novo ones, such as ARHGAP11BNOTCH2NLTBC1D3, and more (all three of those seem to have arisen by good ol’ gene duplication). But this latest work is a particularly direct example of a clear break between humans and other species, and suggests that these de novo genes managed to fit well into an existing network of brain-development signaling and to potentiate it even more. It has been a longstanding question, how human brains managed to expand so dramatically, but it appears that we’re on the way to answering that one. The “why” part of the question is answered the same way every other question in evolution is answered: because it worked. A larger cerebral cortex seems to have conferred survival advantages, and here we all are with our large brains, having overrun the earth.

    There are a number of very obvious experiments suggested by this work that we are going to have to be very cautious with. What happens if you splice a suite of these human-brain-only genes into mice, instead of just one at a time? What happens if you increase expression of one or more of them, with a different promoter or through adding more than one copy? We are going to be having some very interesting debates about quantifying animal intelligence. And we will want to practice very good laboratory hygiene as well, because I think we can all agree that it is not in our best interest to allow the earth’s mice and rats to become any more intelligent and wily than they are already. I wish that I were joking about that, but I’m not.

    Nor am I joking when I think about the human implications. As the world knows, we have already seen irresponsible attempts to do germline editing and produce altered human babies. When will someone try adding in more of the cortical-expansion genes, to see what happens? I’ll leave it there.

  • https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/expanding-brain-literally