COVID-19 cases are expected to rise this fall as new variants become more prevalent. And, as unfortunately expected, it’s already triggered demands by some of our more zealous public health enforcers, not to mention some teachers’ unions, to reinstate mitigation measures including mandatory masking.
Some researchers are already recommending that when cases go up, people will need to wear masks indoors again.
Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina, author of the widely read newsletter “Your Local Epidemiologist,” predicts COVID-19 “is going to be disruptive this winter, and it will cause a number of people to die,” and added, “That’s just not acceptable to the public health world, especially since it’s preventable.” In a recent “PBS Newshour” interview, she suggested “wearing masks in crowded areas, especially during a surge” and “certainly at home, it works, if you want to reduce household transmission.”
About 100 colleges and universities still require students to be vaccinated. A smaller number of schools including Rutgers, Georgetown, and Morris Brown College in Atlanta have reinstated mask mandates on campus.
Grade schools may be next. The Biden administration recently appointed teachers’ union boss and long-time school closure advocate Randi Weingarten to a new Department of Homeland Security school safety advisory council tasked with recommending “preparedness measures” and “safety and security” in schools.
None of this incipient hysteria is warranted.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is, as expected, continuing to mutate. The EG.5 variant is the most common US strain now, making up an estimated 21% of new infections in the two-week period ending August 19. The next-most common, at 13%, is the FL.1.5.1 variant.
EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 share a common spike protein mutation — F456L — which appears to help them spread more easily than earlier variants, possibly because the mutation decreases susceptibility to antibodies in previously vaccinated and/or infected people
But neither variant seems to cause more severe disease than earlier Omicron strains which were themselves less virulent than the pre-Omicron variants.
Lurking in the background is a new, highly mutated strain called BA.2.86, which has thus far only been detected in seven cases in four countries — Denmark, Israel, the United Kingdom, and a US case in Michigan. BA.2.86 is worrisome because it has 35 mutations on the spike protein relative to the XBB.1.5 variant targeted by the forthcoming revised vaccines. This is as big an evolutionary jump as Omicron was from the original Wuhan strain.
The fact that the genetic sequences in all seven cases were close and that BA.2.86 has been found around the world suggests that it may be spreading beneath the radar. Nevertheless, while BA.2.86 may prove to be highly transmissible, there is nothing yet to suggest it will cause more severe illness.
The fact is, nearly everyone has some degree of immunity to COVID-19 that will protect them against severe disease and mortality. Blood bank data showed that as of September 2022, about 96% of people 16 and older have immunity resulting from vaccination (26%), infections (23%), or both (48%). The numbers should be higher a year later.
Moreover, many of the revised mandates are directed at low-risk populations. School-age children, ages 5-14, accounted for less than one-tenth of a percent of total COVID-19 deaths. High school and university ages, 15-24, were a quarter of a percent.
Finally, there is little evidence that masking works for either students or teachers. In Sweden, which kept schools open without mask mandates, there was no increase in childhood cases and teachers had no increased risk of severe COVID-19 infection compared to other occupations.
Multiple studies have failed to document a benefit from masks. But masks do interfere with social interactions and are particularly damaging to the psychosocial and educational development of schoolchildren.
Should cases rise dramatically, those at increased risk from COVID — the elderly (more than three-quarters of deaths), the immunocompromised, and people with multiple underlying medical conditions — will need to exercise caution, just as they should during any annual flu season.
But the time for widespread COVID-19 mandates is over.
Dr. Joel Zinberg is a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and director of the Paragon Health Institute’s Public Health and American Well-Being Initiative.
https://nypost.com/2023/08/23/new-covid-outbreak-is-mild-and-masks-dont-help/
