UK economy at risk of recession despite November growth

  Britain's economy grew slightly more strongly than expected in November but remains at risk of slipping into a mild recession, a potential blow for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before an election expected in 2024.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% after a fall of 0.3% in October, slightly beating economists' forecasts for 0.2% growth in a Reuters poll.

But output shrank by 0.2% in the three months to the end of November, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday, more than the expected 0.1% fall.

A contraction or possibly even flat output in December could lead to a second consecutive quarter of falling output, the ONS said. This would place the economy in a shallow recession.

"It remains touch-and-go whether the economy tipped into a technical recession in the second half of 2023," Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said. "In either case, a better description of the trend might be stagnation. The recession, if it did occur, looks to have been as mild as they come."

Sterling was little changed against the U.S. dollar after the data, but government bond yields fell as markets priced in a slightly higher chance that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin to cut interest rates in May.

Britain's economy struggled to gain momentum in 2023, as households were squeezed by rapid inflation and the highest BoE interest rates in 15 years.

EUROPEAN WEAKNESS

Economic output in November was only 0.2% higher than a year earlier and has grown by just 2.5% since 2019.

Much of Europe's economy is weak too, due partly to the after-effects of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-uk-economy-grows-0-070324598.html

Shein files with Chinese regulator for planned US float -sources

 Fashion company Shein is seeking Beijing's nod to go public in the U.S. to comply with new listing rules for local firms, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, a decision it has made despite efforts to push its global credentials.

The move could delay the fast-fashion giant's plans for its initial public offering (IPO) which is likely not only to face tougher-than-expected scrutiny from U.S. regulators in an election year, but also have to go through a lengthy approval process with numerous Chinese regulators.

Shein confidentially filed to go public in the United States in November and could launch its new share sale in 2024, in what is likely to be one of the most valuable China-founded companies to list in New York, Reuters has reported citing sources.

In the same month though, Shein also filed with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for the U.S. float, making it subject to Beijing's new listing rules for Chinese firms going public offshore, said the sources.

That move, which has not been reported before, puts into question Shein's efforts over the years to distance itself from China and position itself as a global company which included moving its headquarters to Singapore from Nanjing, capital of China's eastern Jiangsu province.

Shein did not immediately reply to a request for comment on Friday, and neither did the CSRC.

The new Chinese listing rules that came into effect in March last year stipulate that local firms wanting to list in offshore markets will need to make a filing with the CSRC and receive clearance from domestic regulators before proceeding.

One of the two sources cautioned that Beijing-Washington tensions in a U.S. election year would also likely thwart Shein's hopes of listing in New York in the near future.

The sources declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to media.

Under the CSRC rules, a host of authorities such as the National Development and Reform Commission, which supervises foreign holdings in local firms, the cybersecurity regulator and other industry regulators may get involved in approving offshore IPO applications.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-shein-files-chinese-regulator-102026621.html

EU investigators to inspect China's BYD, Geely and SAIC in EV probe - source

 European Commission investigators are to inspect Chinese automakers in the coming weeks as part of a probe into whether to impose punitive tariffs to protect European electric vehicle (EV) makers, three people involved in the process said.

The inspectors will visit BYD, Geely and SAIC, two sources said, with one of them saying the investigators will not visit non-Chinese brands produced in China, such as Tesla, Renault and BMW.

The probe, launched in October and scheduled to last 13 months, seeks to determine whether cheaper, Chinese-made EVs benefit unfairly from state subsidies. Called protectionist by China, the investigation has escalated tensions between Beijing and the EU.

The European Commission, China's commerce ministry, BYD and SAIC did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Geely declined to comment but cited its October statement that the company followed all laws and supported fair market competition globally.

One source said the investigators have arrived in China, while another said visits are scheduled for this month and February.

The visits are for verification work - on-site inspections checking responses the automakers gave to questionnaires - one source said. European Commission documents for the probe say it is in the "initiation stage", with verification visits due by April 11.

The sources asked not to be named as details of the visit were confidential.

Last week, China opened an anti-dumping investigation on brandy imported from the European Union, a step that appeared targeted at France, which backs the EV probe. Popular Chinese models exported to Europe include SAIC's MG and Geely's Volvo.

Chinese-made vehicles' share of the European Union's EV market has risen to 8% and could reach 15% in 2025, with these EVs typically selling for 20% less than EU-made models.

In October, China's Great Wall Motor said it was the first automaker to submit responses to the EU subsidy investigation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-eu-investigators-inspect-chinas-095653114.html

US, Britain carry out strikes across Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks

 U.S. and British warplanes, ships and submarines struck across Yemen overnight in retaliation against Iran-backed Houthi forces for attacks on Red Sea shipping, a widening of regional conflict triggered by Israel's war in Gaza.

Witnesses confirmed explosions throughout Yemen, saying raids targeted a military base adjacent to Sanaa airport, a military site near Taiz airport, a Houthi naval base in Hodeidah and military sites in Hajjah governorate.

"These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation," U.S. President Joe Biden said.

The Houthis said five of their fighters had been killed in a total of 73 air strikes and said they would retaliate for the strikes and continue their attacks on shipping, which they describe as intended to support Palestinians against Israel.

A U.S. official said more than a dozen locations were targeted in strikes that were not just symbolic but intended to weaken the Houthis' military capabilities.

"We were going after very specific capability in very specific locations with precision munitions," the official said.

Kheloud, a resident of the capital Sanaa who gave just her first name, awoke to loud explosions from the direction of the airport to the north: "We saw a large fire from where the attack took place. It was half an hour of terror."

In a country only just emerging from nearly a decade of war that brought millions of people to the brink of famine, morning brought long queues at petrol stations from people fearing an extended new conflict with the West.

"There is a lot of worry that the fuel shortages will repeat themselves and food supplies will be scarce," said Ali Ahmad, 52. "We are rushing to fuel our car and we bought flour and rice in case of any emergency because we are expecting the Houthis to respond and an escalation to take place."

In Yemen's main Red Sea port Hodeidah, a resident who gave only his first name Mahmoud said troops were spreading through the streets and military vehicles were leaving barracks with security escorts.

Britain's defence ministry said early indications were that "the Houthis' ability to threaten merchant shipping has taken a blow". James Heappey, a junior defence minister no further action was planned for now.

The price of oil rose sharply on concern that supplies could be disrupted. Brent crude rost $2.

The Houthis, an armed movement that took control of most of Yemen over the past decade, have been attacking shipping lanes at the mouth of the Red Sea, where 15% of the world's seaborne trade passes on routes between Europe and Asia.

The United States and allies had deployed a naval task force to the area in December, and the situation had escalated in recent days.

U.S. helicopters directly struck Houthi forces for the first time on New Year's Eve, sinking three boats and killing fighters attempting board a ship. On Tuesday this week the United States and Britain shot down 21 missiles and drones in what they described as the biggest Houthi attack yet, which they said had directly targeted their warships.

Iran, which supports armed groups around the Middle East including both the Houthis and the Hamas militants that control Gaza, condemned the U.S. and British attacks.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is in hospital due to surgery complications, said in a statement that the strikes targeted Houthi drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, costal radar and air surveillance.

FEARS OF ESCALATION

Houthi attacks on commercial ships have forced shipping lines to send vessels on a longer, costlier route around Africa, creating fears of a new bout of inflation and supply chain disruption derailing the global economic recovery.

Tesla said on Thursday it was shutting its factory in Germany for two weeks because of delays to parts supplies arriving from Asia as a result of Red Sea unrest, the first big manufacturer to make such an announcement.

But Washington has had to weigh its determination to keep the shipping lane open against the risk of spreading war in the region. The strikes were the first by the United States on Yemeni territory since 2016, and the first time it has attacked the Iran-backed Houthis at any such scale.

"The concern is that this could escalate," said Andreas Krieg at King's College in London.

Saudi Arabia called for restraint and "avoiding escalation". The Saudis have backed the opposing side in a war against the Houthis for nearly a decade, which has lately been in a delicate state of U.N.-backed peace negotiations.

The United States also accused Iran of being involved operationally in the Houthi attacks, providing the military capabilities and intelligence to carry them out.

"We believe that they have been certainly involved in every phase of this," a senior U.S. official told reporters.

Violence has escalated in Lebanon, the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Syria and Iraq in the three months since Israel mounted a military assault on Gaza.

Israel has killed more than 23,000 Palestinians during its operation to eradicate Hamas, whose fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and seizing 240 hostages.

The United States has troops on the ground in Syria and Iraq, and has previously retaliated for attacks there by Iran-backed groups. Iraq's state news agency quoted an advisor to its prime minister as saying the West was expanding the conflict.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-britain-carry-strikes-across-110114022.html

UnitedHealth's stock slips as medical costs top expectations, but earnings beat

 Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) slipped 0.2% in premarket trading Friday, after the health insurer reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter medical costs, but earnings that beat forecasts. Net income rose to $5.46 billion, or $5.83 a share, from $4.76 billion, or $5.03 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of $6.16 beat the FactSet consensus of $5.98. Revenue grew 14.1% to $94.43 billion, well above the FactSet consensus of $92.13 billion, as UnitedHealthcare revenue rose 12.4% to $70.8 billion and Optum revenue increased 24.2% to $59.5 billion. The medical care ratio, or the ratio of medical costs to premium revenue, was 85% compared with expectations of 84.1%. For 2024, the company reiterated its guidance range for adjusted EPS of $27.50 to $28.00 and for revenue of $400 billion. The company said, however, that the earnings outlook will be impacted when the sale of its Brazil operations closes in the first half of 2024. The stock has edged up 2.7% over the past three months through Thursday, while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) has rallied 8.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has run up 12.1%.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240112182/unitedhealths-stock-slips-as-medical-costs-top-expectations-but-earnings-beat

Chinese Scientists Reveal Experiments With Virus 100% Fatal To Mice

 by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Scientists in China, experimenting with a coronavirus closely related to the virus that causes COVID-19, found that it had a 100 percent kill rate in a small mouse study, according to the researchers’ announcement on Jan. 4.

The scientists, including a doctor trained by the Chinese military, cloned a pangolin coronavirus and infected modified mice to “assess its pathogenicity,” they said in a preprint paper published on bioRxiv.

Of the four mice infected with the virus, all began to lose weight five days post-infection. Shortly thereafter, they exhibited symptoms including sluggishness and white eyes.

The four mice died within eight days of inoculation. Researchers described the results as “surprising.”

Researchers then infected eight additional mice, euthanized them, and selected organs from four to analyze. High levels of viral RNA were found in various organs, including the brain, lungs, and eyes. While the viral load in the lungs decreased by the sixth day, it increased in the brain.

“This finding suggested that severe brain infection during the later stages of infection may be the key cause of death in these mice,” the scientists said.

The experiments were on a mutant strain of the pangolin virus, known as GX_P2V(short_3UTR).

The results suggest a risk for the virus to “spill over into humans,” researchers said.

Experts Concerned

Justin Kinney, an associate professor at the Simons Center for Quantitative Biology at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in the U.S., said the research described in the paper does not seem to fall under the category of gain-of-function because the Chinese scientists did not purposefully enhance the virus to be more pathogenic or transmissible.

“The research is still very dangerous, though,” Mr. Kinney told The Epoch Times via email. “I am especially concerned that the paper does not say what biosafety level the work was performed at. Coronavirus research in China is often done at a biosafety level (BSL-2) that is inadequate for working with potential pandemic pathogens that might be transmitted by air.

“Indeed, coronavirus research done at BSL-2 may have caused the COVID-19 pandemic. And by showing that the coronavirus has a surprisingly high pathogenicity, the work underscores the need for extreme caution when working with novel coronaviruses.”

The first COVID-19 cases were detected in Wuhan, China, near a laboratory that has conducted risky experiments on coronaviruses, including enhancing the pathogenicity of a bat coronavirus. Some scientists believe that the virus causing COVID-19 likely originated from the lab, given its history and the fact that, years later, a natural origin has yet to be identified.

Lihua Song, a scientist in Beijing who co-authored the new paper, did not respond to a request for comment on how the scientists ensured the experiments they performed were safe.

Critics noted that the researchers who published the new study include Yigang Tong, who was trained in a Chinese military program and worked in military-run labs. He also co-authored a paper in 2023 with Zheng-Li Shi, who helps run the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Justin Goodman, senior vice president of the White Coat Waste Project, a U.S. nonprofit, said the new study added to the body of evidence showing Chinese scientists have been conducting “dangerous and deadly tests on mice.”

“This is why shipping US tax dollars to foreign adversaries’ unaccountable animal labs is a recipe for disaster and we’re working with lawmakers to stop it,” Mr. Goodman told The Epoch Times via email.

The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) has for years funded lab work in China and other foreign countries, including testing done in Wuhan.

This week, Congress is focusing its questioning of Dr. Anthony Fauci on some of those experiments. Dr. Fauci has, for years, led the NIH office responsible for funding this work.

Results Unclear

The Chinese scientists infected genetically engineered mice that have lungs modified to better mimic humans. The outcomes were not compared with other live viruses, such as SARS-COV-2, which causes COVID-19.

That makes it unclear whether the pangolin coronavirus “is generally more dangerous than SARS-CoV-2, or if their results are due to the specific mice they used,” said Mr. Kinney. “And it’s not at all clear from their results what might happen were a human to become infected with this coronavirus.”

Mr. Kinney helped co-found a group called Biosafety Now that advocates for independent oversight of risky experiments.

Dr. Tong and his colleagues compared the pathological changes in the mice with those in a control group and found no evidence of severe inflammation. They noted that these results were consistent with reports from Shi regarding the pangolin coronavirus, as well as with their previous experiments conducted on golden hamsters and another type of mouse.

The researchers called for more investigation of the high pathogenicity of the coronavirus and said that their study “offers a distinct alternative model for understanding the pathogenic mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/chinese-scientists-reveal-experiments-virus-100-percent-fatal-mice

AfD Bundestag Member Vows To Deport Foreigners From Germany "By The Millions"

  by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

AfD Bundestag member René Springer has promised to deport foreigners from Germany “by the millions” as his party just hit a new high in approval polls.

Springer made the comments in a post on X in response to a media narrative that the AfD has a secret plan to expel migrants.

The politician asserted that the so-called “plan” wasn’t secret at all.

“We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions,” he wrote. “This is not a secret plan. This is a promise. For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany.”

Angela Merkel’s decision to accept over a million “refugees” from 2015 onwards led to the country experiencing a significant spike in crime and social disorder.

As we previously highlighted, a shop owner in Germany was denounced as a racist last month for complaining about migrants mass looting his store, while a left-wing politician sided with the criminals, saying they were “entitled” to steal.

The consequences have led to Germany becoming the latest major European nation to begin openly talking about re-migration.

However, the political establishment in Germany is attempting to ban AfD as a political entity entirely, ludicrously, in the name of ‘protecting democracy,’ even as support for the right-wing party continues to grow.

Emphasizing the popularity of AfD’s policies on mass migration, the party just hit a new record high on 24% in support amongst German voters.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/afd-bundestag-member-vows-deport-foreigners-germany-millions