Gilead Gears Up To Challenge J&J in $20B Multiple Myeloma CAR-T Market

 

J&J has a multi-year head start, but Gilead believes it can win market share by delivering a drug with better safety and at least as good efficacy.

Johnson & Johnson may face a new challenge to its burgeoning BCMA CAR T cell therapy empire. Having come from behind to capture the market from Bristol Myers Squibb, J&J is now preparing for the arrival of a fresh threat from Gilead’s anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel). Gilead is targeting a 2026 launch for a cell therapy that it believes could expand the CAR T multiple myeloma market through outpatient use.

Billions of dollars are on the line. Carvykti sales hit $963 million last year and, having jumped more than 100% to $369 million in the first quarter, are on track to pass the blockbuster threshold this year. Visible Alpha’s consensus analyst estimate puts peak sales at around $7 billion in 2030.

Gilead has put a higher value on the overall CAR-T multiple myeloma market. Talking at a Leerink event in March, Cindy Perettie, global head of Gilead’s CAR-T unit Kite, predicted the market will be worth $15 billion to $20 billion in 2034. The forecast makes multiple myeloma a bigger opportunity for Gilead than its current CAR-T stronghold in lymphoma, which Perettie forecast will grow to between $10 billion and $12 billion.

J&J has a multi-year head start, having first won FDA approval for Carvykti in 2022, but Gilead believes it can win market share by delivering a drug with better safety and at least as good efficacy. Manufacturing is the third piece of the plan, with Gilead using the infrastructure set up for its other CAR T cell therapies as a competitive advantage.

How Gilead Is Positioning Anito-cel

In May, Gilead’s anito-cel partner Arcellx shared updated Phase II data on the cell therapy as a fourth-line or later treatment for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. The overall response rate in the 117 patients was 97%. Almost 70% of patients had a complete response.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman said in note to investors that “anito-cel continues to demonstrate meaningful efficacy that is at a minimum comparable to Carvykti, with potentially better [overall survival] rates.” Seigerman compared anito-cel’s 12-month overall survival rate, 95%, favorably to the 89% rate in a Carvykti study.

Gilead’s belief that anito-cel may have a safety advantage rests on the relatively low rates of neurotoxicity seen in patients to date. Carvykti has a boxed warning for potentially life-threatening adverse events including Parkinsonism and Guillain-Barré syndrome. As of the May 1 data cutoff, no patients in the anito-cel trial had Parkinsonism, cranial nerve palsies, Guillain-Barré or immune-mediated enterocolitis.

Seigerman said the absence of delayed neurotoxicity “continues to increase our confidence in anito-cel’s safety profile.” The analyst cited the 1% rate of grade 3 or above cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and immune effector cell–associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS), both of which are on Carvykti’s boxed warning, as another positive.

Perettie discussed the implications of the CRS and ICANS rate at a RBC Capital Markets event in May. The Gilead executive said only one in 10 multiple myeloma patients who are eligible for CAR-T currently receive a cell therapy. Patients who do receive CAR-T are admitted to hospital for four to five days, Perettie said. Gilead sees eliminating hospital stays as a way to increase uptake of CAR-T among eligible patients.

“We now know some of the pieces that are going to help move that market, which is how we get closer to patients in the community,” Perettie said. “Ninety percent of myeloma patients sit in the community, only 10% in academic centers. Because it’s a more indolent disease, they don’t get referred to later and so reaching them where they are is important.”

Around 10% of patients in the Phase II trial have received anito-cel in an outpatient setting, Perettie said. Gilead has increased the proportion of outpatients in its Phase III trial to 20%. The company plans to use a network of more than 550 authorized treatment centers that it has built up globally for its other CAR-T therapies to complement the outpatient option.

Gilead created the network to support its lymphoma cell therapies Yescarta and Tecartus. The biotech also plans to use the manufacturing capabilities it built for Yescarta and Tecartus to produce anito-cel and gain an edge over its rival. Gilead believes that the manufacturing network is a differentiator, reflecting the challenges of producing CAR-T therapies using a patient’s own cells, CEO Daniel O’Day explained at a Bernstein event in May.

“We have the largest manufacturing network, the shortest turnaround time. You need to have a short turnaround time because people are put in an immunocompromised state while they’re waiting for their cells to come back, and you want to make sure you get those back as quickly as possible so you get the best clinical benefit,” O’Day said.

The Case for Carvykti

BMO analyst Kostas Biliouris has pushed back on the idea that cross-trial comparisons show anito-cel is safer and more effective than Carvykti. Writing in a note to investors, Biliouris said there are “significant differences” in the populations enrolled in anito-cel and Carvykti trials that could confound comparisons.

Three times higher corticosteroid use for CRS management in the anito-cel trial “further precludes direct . . . efficacy/safety comparisons,” the analyst said. Biliouris quoted real-world data and post-hoc analyses that suggest corticosteroid use could contribute to seeming differences in the safety and efficacy of the CAR T cell therapies.

Biliouris is bullish on Carvykti, reflecting the fact that J&J and partner Legend Biotech have shown statistically significant improvements in overall survival and are increasing use in earlier treatment lines. The FDA has approved Carvykti for second-line use. Gilead’s Phase III trial is enrolling patients who have tried one to three prior lines of therapy, including an anti-CD38 antibody and an immunomodulatory drug.

The analyst also cited Carvykti’s “differentiated [seven-day] CRS onset that facilitates outpatient dosing” as a strength of the cell therapy. J&J is running two trials that are allowing people to receive Carvykti as an outpatient. Patients initially stay within 30 minutes of the hospital but are admitted as inpatients on day five of the studies, reflecting knowledge of the timing of CRS and other adverse events.

Gilead’s outpatient offering may prove more flexible and attractive to patients, but in J&J it will face a deep-pocketed incumbent that is leveraging its head start to expand and entrench the use of Carvykti.

https://www.biospace.com/business/gilead-gears-up-to-challenge-j-j-in-20b-multiple-myeloma-car-t-market

Pharma Tuck-In Deals Grow After a Mediocre First Quarter for Small Biotechs

 

Jefferies has predicted more small tuck-in deals to come, as biotechs struggle to access capital despite key clinical milestones on the horizon.

And just like that, pharma is acquiring again. After a mostly dull first quarter, deals are heating up as we head into the final month of the half.

Sanofi has earned the badge as the biggest buyer, putting up $9.5 billion to acquire rare disease specialist Blueprint Medicines on Monday. But Bristol Myers Squibb eclipsed that total with a mega licensing deal to work with BioNTech on a solid tumor bispecific for potentially more than $11 billion.

The outlays have been at times surprising, featuring smaller biotechs with little fanfare around them. Jefferies noted last week that three small-cap biotechs had been acquired—Vigil Neuroscience (Sanofi), Regulus Therapeutics (Novartis) and Inozyme Pharma (BioMarin)—which speaks to the tough biotech markets, cheap stocks and a challenging fundraising environment. The year so far has been difficult for these small companies, as buyers looked to more liquid larger companies instead, Jefferies noted. Johnson & Johnson’s $14.6 billion acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies in the first quarter is an example.

Jefferies, in a pair of recent notes, predicted more small tuck-in deals to come, as biotechs struggle to access capital despite key clinical milestones on the horizon.

“If valuations remain pressured, we predict the number of small-cap M&A deals could rise in the next 6–12 months—particularly as SMID-cap cash runways steadily decrease (a function of time)—forcing SMID-caps to decide whether to raise cash (either via non-dilution or dilution) or simply seek alternatives (M&A, reverse mergers),” Jefferies wrote on Sunday.

The number of biotechs trading under cash has peaked at 22% of the sector. This is the highest point by far in at least nine years, according to Jefferies. The firm says that about 80 companies are in this ballpark. The previous high mark over the past nine years was 68 in 2022.

“In some sense, the potential suitor now has more leverage, but we’d argue that an M&A deal would be a win-win proposition for both parties in this kind of market environment, as management teams may also need to think about what is in the best interest of shareholders,” Jefferies wrote over the weekend.

Last week, Jefferies noted that biotech follow-on financings totaled just $3 billion in the first quarter, the lowest in three to four years. In the first quarter of 2024, $11 billion was raised.

“This is not necessarily a reflection of the fundamentals but more a reflection of the risk-off approach biotech investors are taking in the current environment,” the analysts wrote.

Jefferies flagged 10 biotechs that could become targets in the near term, including Kalvista Pharmaceuticals, Rezolute, Ventyx Biosciences, aTyr Pharma and more. All of these companies have fairly advanced assets in areas where pharma has been prowling.

Ventyx in particular has Phase II Parkinson’s disease results expected this quarter and a deal with Sanofi that provides the pharma with right of first negotiation (ROFN) on an acquisition. Ventyx’s shares climbed on the Vigil acquisition, since Sanofi also had a ROFN agreement with that biotech and the deal indicated a clear desire for novel central nervous system therapies, according to Jefferies. While Sanofi has a head start at negotiations, the agreement does not stop other pharmas from making bids. Jefferies noted that Lilly and AbbVie have interest in immunology and CNS, and therefore could be players.

Billion Dollar Buyouts

Eli Lilly’s $1 billion buy of under-the-radar pain biotech SiteOne Therapeutics was an example of the small-cap takeout—a diversifying one for the pharma, whose main focus for the past while has been on weight loss and diabetes. BMO Capital Markets heralded the deal as a chance for Lilly to branch out from the world of GLP-1s, where it is in a tight battle with Novo Nordisk.

Sanofi also exemplified the tuck-in trend in the deal signed prior to Blueprint. On May 22, the French pharma offered $470 million upfront to take on Vigil, and in particular its TEM2 Alzheimer’s candidate VG-3927. Jefferies said the 250% premium on Vigil’s share price suggested there was a competitive process behind the scenes.

Another theme has been big licensing deals with Chinese biotechs, continuing a trend that ticked up late last year as the region’s biotech sector rises. In a Friday note, Truist Securities said that “China based biotechs have become a force to be reckoned with.” Pharmas are increasingly looking there for M&A, according to the firm. But of late, many pharmas are opting for licensing deals with eye-popping milestone possibilities.

On Monday, Regeneron plunked down $80 million upfront for a late-stage GLP-1/GIP agonist from Hansoh Pharma. The deal could ultimately be worth up to $1.93 billion in various milestones. The week prior, Pfizer put $4 billion on the line in one of the biggest China-licensing deals of recent memory to work with 3SBio on a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody.

Bristol Myers Squibb’s $11 billion deal with BioNTech also has roots in China, with the bispecific antibody at the heart of the deal originating from BioNTech’s nearly $1 billion buyout of China-based Biotheus in November 2024. Coincidentally, that was the same month Merck signed a licensing deal worth up to $3 billion with China-based LaNova Medicines for a similar asset.

The BMS-BioNTech deal was part of “succession planning for Opdivo,” BMS’ blockbuster immune-oncology med, according to BMO Capital Markets. Similarly, Merck is facing patent expiration of Keytruda. The focus on immuno-oncology is a theme right now in industry as companies search for the next big blockbuster.

https://www.biospace.com/business/pharma-tuck-in-deals-grow-after-a-mediocre-first-quarter-for-small-biotechs

Vigil’s TREM2 Antibody for Rare Brain Disease Flunks Phase II Trial

 

Disappointing results for iluzanebart come shortly after Vigil Neuroscience struck a buy-out deal with Sanofi, but analysts say the outcome is unsurprising and shouldn’t affect the deal.

Two weeks after agreeing to be bought out by Sanofi, Vigil Neuroscience’s monoclonal antibody iluzanebart failed a Phase II study for a rare brain disorder and its development is being discontinued.

While noting good safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics, Vigil said that iluzanebart showed “no beneficial effects on biomarker or clinical efficacy endpoints” in the Phase II IGNITE trial and concurrent natural history study called ILLUMINATE. Vigil had been pursuing accelerated approval for the antibody but hadn’t provided an update from the FDA in some time.

In a note to investors Wednesday morning, William Blair analysts said they were “not surprised” by the results, given that in buying Vigil, Sanofi did not get iluzanebart along with the rest of the company. Instead, the drug will go back to Amgen, the drug’s original licensor. Vigil launched back in 2020 with Amgen’s backing and ex-Amgen assets in its pipeline.

“We are disappointed on the IGNITE miss given early promising signals,” the William Blair analysts wrote, pointing to earlier testing results that showed pharmacological activity, but also noted that they’d had questions on bioavailability and reproducibility of the trial’s results. The results shouldn’t affect the deal with Sanofi, according to the analysts.

Iluzanebart, a monoclonal antibody TREM2 agonist, was being developed by Vigil for adult-onset leukoencephalopathy with axonal spheroids and pigmented glia (ALSP), a rare, progressive brain disease that can lead to personality changes, loss of muscle function, and develop into dementia.

“While this is not the data outcome we hoped to see for our iluzanebart program and our patients . . . we believe our efforts and the data collected from the IGNITE clinical trial and ILLUMINATE natural history study have increased awareness and provided a deeper understanding of ALSP,” Vigil President and CEO Ivana Magovčević-Liebisch said in a statement announcing the results.

Sanofi agreed to buy Vigil in late May for about $470 million, with the hopes of bulking up its neuroscience pipeline. Central to the deal was Vigil’s other TREM2 agonist, VG-3927, aimed at neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s.

Iluzanebart’s failure is another ding for a TREM2 space that has already seen a recent high-profile failure. Last November, Alector’s TREM2 antibody failed its own Phase II study for Alzheimer’s disease, triggering layoffs. In 2017, AbbVie paid $200 million for the global option to develop and commercialize the antibody.

https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/vigils-trem2-antibody-for-rare-brain-disease-flunks-phase-ii-trial

Chinese Nationals Caught Smuggling "Agroterrorism" Fungus Into America's Breadbasket

 In a plot that reads like a Tom Clancy novel crossed with a dystopian agribusiness nightmare, two Chinese nationals, Yunqing Jian, 33, and Zunyong Liu, 34, have been slapped with federal charges for allegedly smuggling a biological ticking time bomb into the U.S. 

The weapon? Fusarium graminearum, a fungus dubbed a "potential agroterrorism weapon" by scientific literature, capable of wreaking havoc on America's wheat, barley, maize, and rice crops while poisoning humans and livestock with its toxic byproducts. 

The stage? Detroit Metropolitan Airport, where Liu's clumsy attempt to sneak the pathogen past Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers unraveled faster than a cheap yuan store sweater.

The Department of Justice dropped the hammer on Tuesday, June 3, 2025, charging Jian and Liu with conspiracy, smuggling, false statements, and visa fraud.

Jian, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Michigan's Molecular Plant-Microbe Interaction Laboratory, and her boyfriend Liu, a researcher at Zhejiang University in China, allegedly conspired to bring this crop-killing fungus to a U.S. lab for "research." 

But let's cut through the academic veneer: Fusarium graminearum isn't your garden-variety mold. It causes "head blight," a disease that can devastate staple crops, costing global agriculture billions annually. 

Worse, its toxins induce vomiting, liver damage, and reproductive issues in humans and animals. In the wrong hands, it's a bioweapon straight out of a Pentagon threat assessment.

The story begins in July 2024, when Liu landed in Detroit on a tourist visa, claiming he was visiting his girlfriend. CBP officers, not buying the innocent tourist act, searched his luggage and found four plastic baggies stuffed with reddish plant material, later confirmed to be laced with Fusarium graminearum. Liu initially played dumb, insisting someone must have planted the stuff in his bag—a story that collapsed faster than China's commercial real estate bubble. 

After squirming under questioning, he admitted to hiding the samples in a wad of tissues to dodge CBP scrutiny, intending to deliver them to Jian's lab at the University of Michigan for "research."

But the plot thickens. Electronic communications between Jian and Liu, uncovered by the FBI, suggest this wasn't a one-off. Messages from 2022 show Jian discussing how to smuggle biological materials past CBP, even boasting about hiding samples in her shoes during a previous trip. In early 2024, she reportedly arranged for an associate in China to mail a book with a plastic bag of material hidden inside. And then there's the kicker: Jian's phone contained a signed pledge of loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), alongside evidence of funding from a Chinese government-backed foundation for her research on—surprise, surprise—Fusarium graminearum. Liu's phone wasn't clean either, harboring an article titled "2018 Plant-Pathogen Warfare Under Changing Climate Conditions," which explicitly flags the fungus as a crop-destroying threat.

The FBI's counterintelligence division, not known for chasing shadows, labeled this a "grave national security concern." U.S. Attorney Jerome Gorgon didn't mince words, calling the smuggling attempt a deliberate move to introduce a pathogen that could paralyze America's agricultural crop belts. 

Cheyvoryea Gibson, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI's Detroit Field Office, echoed the sentiment, framing the charges as a "crucial advancement" in safeguarding national security. Even CBP's Marty Raybon chimed in, emphasizing the agency's role in stopping biological threats that could "devastate our agricultural economy."

Jian, now in custody and deemed a flight risk, appeared in a Detroit federal court on Tuesday, where a judge ordered her held without bond pending a hearing. Liu, meanwhile, was sent back to China after his airport interception; his current whereabouts are unknown. Both have a history with the fungus, having co-authored multiple papers on Fusarium graminearum since 2014, which raises questions about how long this scheme was in development. Denials of involvement appear to have crumbled under the weight of text messages suggesting Jian was already cultivating the pathogen in the Michigan lab before Liu's arrival.

Now, let's connect the dots the mainstream won't touch. The CCP's fingerprints are all over this. Jian's funding ties to a Chinese government-backed foundation and her pledged allegiance to the Party aren't exactly subtle. Liu's role at Zhejiang University, a known hub for CCP-aligned research, only adds fuel to the fire. 

Posts on X are buzzing, with users like @TrashDiscourse connecting the dots on potentially broader PLA strategies.

Skeptics might argue that this is just a case of overzealous researchers cutting corners for the sake of science. However, when factoring in the CCP connections and the pathogen's classification as a potential bioweapon, the "innocent scientist" narrative starts to look like a fairy tale for gullible NPR listeners.

The bigger picture is grim. America's food supply is a soft target, and a well-placed pathogen could collapse the Midwest's grain belt, spike food prices, and sow chaos in an already fragile economy. 

With global tensions simmering and China flexing its biotech muscle, this incident raises red flags about what else might be slipping through the cracks. The University of Michigan, caught flat-footed, now faces scrutiny over its lax oversight of foreign researchers. And while Jian sits in a Detroit cell, the question lingers: how many other "researchers" are out there, quietly probing America's vulnerabilities?

This isn't just a smuggling bust—it's a wake-up call. America's already fragile food supply chain may be the next target in a broader campaign of irregular warfare by a foreign adversary.

From exporting fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexican cartels—subsidized by Beijing and now causing over 100,000 U.S. deaths annually among working-age adults—to undermining national readiness by taking out military-aged men and women, China appears to be playing the long game: destabilizing America from within.

This is yet another reminder of why Americans must secure local food supply chains—whether that means strengthening ties with nearby farmers and ranchers or simply starting a backyard garden or chicken coop.

https://www.zerohedge.com/food/chinese-nationals-caught-smuggling-agroterrorism-fungus-americas-breadbasket

Hakeem Jeffries Threatens To Doxx ICE Agents, Compares Them To Nazis

 by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

With immigration laws once again being enforced, ICE agents have become prime targets of the left—harassed, doxed, and threatened simply for upholding the law.

At a recent press conference, Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons laid bare the growing danger his agents face—not from violent criminals, but from radical activists hell-bent on exposing and intimidating them into silence.

The tense exchange began when reporters questioned why some agents had been wearing masks during recent operations.

Lyons didn’t mince words.

“A lot of agencies were invited to come out two weeks ago in Los Angeles, where we ran an operation where ICE officers were doxed,” he explained.

“People are out there taking photos of the names, their faces, and posting them online with death threats to their family and themselves.”

Lyons said that in one case, ICE worked with the Secret Service to arrest an individual who had been actively targeting agents and their families. “We arrested someone that was going online, taking their photos, posting their families, their kids’ Instagram, their kids’ Facebooks, and targeting them,” he said.

He dismissed the outrage over agents covering their faces.

“I’m sorry if people are offended by them wearing masks, but I’m not gonna let my officers and agents go out there and put their lives on the line and their family on the line because people don’t like what immigration enforcement is.”

When reporters pressed further, Lyons challenged their priorities. “Is that the issue here—that we’re just upset about the masks? Or is anyone upset with the fact that ICE officers’ families were labeled terrorists?”

But this story gets even worse. Not only are ICE agents and their families being targeted by unhinged left-wing activists, but now Democrats in Washington are openly threatening to dox ICE personnel themselves, effectively aiding and abetting those who want to intimidate, endanger, and silence federal law enforcement.

“Every single ICE agent who's engaged in this aggressive overreach and are trying to hide their identities from the American people will be unsuccessful in doing that,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said at a press conference Tuesday.

“This is America. This is not the Soviet Union. We're not behind the Iron Curtain. This is not the 1930s. And every single one of them, no matter what it takes, no matter how long it takes, will, of course, be identified.”

Hakeem Jeffries’ unhinged rhetoric should outrage every American who believes in law and order. Comparing ICE agents—federal officers lawfully enforcing immigration policy—to Nazis and Soviet secret police isn’t just vile, it’s calculated and dangerous. Jeffries knows exactly what he’s doing by invoking the 1930s and the Iron Curtain: He’s deliberately smearing these agents to justify their public targeting and harassment. It’s not just reckless—it’s an open invitation for extremists to hunt down law enforcement officers and their families. This isn’t leadership; it’s incitement. And it speaks volumes about the radical, unhinged direction of today’s Democrat Party.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hakeem-jeffries-threatens-doxx-ice-agents-compares-them-nazis

US Embassy Tells Americans Be Prepared To 'Take Cover' As Kiev Braces For 'Shock & Awe' Attack

 The US Embassy in Kyiv has issued a new Wednesday heightened security alert due to "continued risk of significant air attacks" by Russia on Ukraine.

The Kremlin, including President Vladimir Putin himself, has said that major retaliation is coming, after the Sunday massive cross-border Ukrainian operation which destroyed many of Russia's premier military aircraft, including long-range strategic bombers.

President Trump has said of an over one-hour phone call he held with Putin Wednesday, that "We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides." Trump went on to call it a good conversation, however "not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace."

The below official embassy alert, marked June 4, relays the following information for American citizens remaining in the Ukrainian capital [emphasis ZH]:

Event:  Russia has increased the intensity of its missile and drone attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, and there is currently a continued risk of significant air attacks. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv urges U.S. citizens to exercise appropriate caution.  As always, we recommend you be prepared to shelter immediately in the event an air alert is announced. 

Actions to Take: 

• Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert.
• Download a reliable air alert app to your mobile phone, such as Air Raid Siren or Alarm Map.
• Immediately take shelter away from windows in the most hardened location you can move to if an air alert is announced.
• Monitor local media for updates.
• Keep reserves of water, food, and medication.
• Follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in the event of an emergency.
• Review what the Department of State Can and Cannot Do in a Crisis. 

Of note in Trump's phone call with Putin is that nothing was stated from Trump in the way of a US demand that Putin not retaliate against Ukraine (or at least which was not disclosed in his Truth Social post).

The absence of a preemptive condemnation for any major retaliation suggests that major aerial retaliation is indeed imminent, and that Washington 'understands' the tit-for-tat nature of what is likely about to happen.

Geopolitical observer and podcaster Alex Christoforou has written the following in reaction to the big Wednesday phone call, after the White House has remained relatively silent on the latest developments, which included a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Strait bridge as well as three bridges in southern Russia, which left at least seven dead:

Trump speaks with Putin. Another long call. Who initiated the call, Trump or Putin?

Much different tone than "playing with fire" Truth post. Two leaders discussed Ukraine drone strikes and "various other attacks...by both sides." Trump accepted that Putin will retaliate, and it will be big. Trump admits "immediate peace" not coming.

Maxar has meanwhile confirmed that several high value strategic bombers were destroyed in Sunday's Ukrainian attack deep inside Russian territory:

But Russia has appeared patient in calculating the response, which could mean 'shock and awe' on Kiev at any moment, hence the US Embassy's strong new warning.

Medvedev had also warned of what's coming in a Tuesday statement: "Our Army is pushing forward and will continue to advance. Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be."

Some ominous threats and signs...

And we don't know what's going with this unusual post from RT, but it can't be good... Doomsday Radio?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-embassy-tells-americans-be-prepared-take-cover-kyiv-braces-shock-awe-attack

Beige Book Finds US Economy Diverging By Party Lines, No Trace Of Runaway Inflation

 Many were stunned after the latest inflation and core PCE data confirmed that the experts were once again dead wrong, and instead of the widely expected inflation tsunami, Trump's tariffs have so far sparked only continued disinflation (which will only become more acute as home prices slide). And yet, anyone who read our Beige Book analysis from last month (not to mention our prediction from last June that "The Experts Are All Wrong About Inflation Under A Trump Presidency") would have known just that: as we laid out, "Beige Book Finds Inflation Mentions Tumble To 3 Year Low" which was the clearest indication that despite the prevailing narrative, rising prices is simply not a thing businesses across the US are worried about.

Fast forward to today when the latest, May, Beige Book was released, and it revealed that according to reports across the 12 Fed district, "economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report" with half of the districts reporting slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. And here an interesting divergence appears, because the Beige Book appears to reveal another party-line split. Here are the districts that reported declines in activity:

• New York
• Boston
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco
• Minneapolis
• Kansas City

And the districts that reported flat/slowing activity:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• Richmond
• Atlanta
• Chicago
• St Louis

In any case, the Beige Book said that all Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions. Manufacturing activity also declined  slightly, while consumer spending reports were mixed, with most Districts reporting slight declines or no change; however, some Districts reported increases in spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs.

Elsewhere, residential real estate sales were little changed, and most district reports on new home construction indicate flat or slowing construction activity. Reports on bank loan demand and capital spending plans were mixed. Activity at ports was robust, while reports on transportation and warehouse activity in other areas were mixed.

On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report. Yet, here too, confusion was the dominant them, with a few District reports indicating the outlook has deteriorated while a few others indicating the outlook has improved.

Focusing on labor markets, the Beige book reported the following:

• Employment has been little changed since the previous report.
• Most Districts described employment as flat, three Districts reported slight-to-modest increases, and two Districts reported slight declines.
• Many Districts reported lower employee turnover rates and more applicants for open positions.
• Comments about uncertainty delaying hiring were widespread: all Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans.
• Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive.
• Two Districts noted that, for many of their contacts, hiring plans had not changed since the start of the year.
• Wages continued to grow at a modest pace, although many Districts reported a general easing in wage pressures.
• A few Districts indicated that higher costs of living continued to put upward pressure on wages.

As for prices, it should come as no surprise by now that the runaway inflation everyone was expecting just isn't there. Here is Beige book confirmation: 

• Prices have increased at a moderate pace since the previous report.
• There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward (although expectations don't pay the bills).
• A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial (once again, it's all expected, nothing is realized).
• All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices (so high that price increases were at most moderate, i.e., in line with history).
• However, contacts’ responses to these higher costs varied, including increasing prices on affected items, increasing prices on all items, reducing profit margins, and adding temporary fees or surcharges.

There was a new section added to this month's Beige Book, one looking at the fate of US energy:

• Energy industry contacts reported moderate growth across most sectors.
• Liquefied natural gas production, exports, and overall global demand remained an area of strength.
• While domestic demand for U.S. crude oil was steady, global demand softened.
• Utility companies described robust residential power demand, modest growth in commercial, and some slowing in industrial.
• Although utility sector contacts reported growth opportunities linked to data center development, some noted a slight deceleration in activity, attributed to concerns over potential tariffs increasing the cost of power infrastructure and impeding investment.
• Offshore wind contacts reported a significant decline in demand, resulting in downsizing.

In short, for yet another month, the sky is not falling.

Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:

• Boston: Economic activity decreased slightly overall. Consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants slowed modestly. Employers paused hiring because of heightened uncertainty, with employment declining slightly and wages increasing just barely. Prices increased only slightly, but larger price increases were expected for the summer. Contacts expressed mixed views concerning the outlook.
• New York: Economic activity in the Second District continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty. Employment held steady, though demand for workers softened and wage growth slowed to a modest pace. Selling price increases remained moderate, but input prices grew strongly with tariff-induced cost increases. Capital spending plans declined, and the outlook was quite pessimistic.
• Philadelphia: Business activity declined modestly in the current Beige Book period, as it did in the last period. Employment declined slightly, despite an uptick in manufacturing sector jobs. Wages increased slightly, and firm price inflation was up moderately. Existing home sales grew slightly, and new home sales declined moderately. Expectations for future growth rose moderately for manufacturers and slightly for nonmanufacturers.
• Cleveland: District business activity continued to be flat in recent weeks, and contacts expected activity to remain flat in the months ahead. Retailers noted a pullback in consumer spending, and manufacturers reported softer orders. Many contacts attributed robust cost increases to tariffs and said that their selling prices increased moderately.
• Richmond: The regional economy continued to grow mildly in recent weeks. Consumer spending and nonfinancial services demand picked up slightly, financial services demand and real estate activity were little changed, and manufacturing activity contracted slightly. Port volumes increased strongly due to a surge in import activity. Employment rose slightly, wage growth was modest, and overall price growth remained moderate.
• Atlanta: The economy of the Sixth District grew slightly. Employment was steady, and wage pressure decreased. Prices increased moderately. Consumer spending was flat, and travel and tourism declined modestly. Home sales rose slightly. Transportation activity grew at a modest pace. Loan growth slowed. Manufacturing fell, but energy activity rose slowly.
• Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly. Consumer spending and employment increased modestly; business spending and construction and real estate activity were flat; manufacturing declined slightly; and nonbusiness contacts saw a slight decline in activity. Prices and wages rose modestly, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2025 farm income increased some.
• St. Louis: Economic activity has remained unchanged, but the outlook has slightly deteriorated. Employment levels were unchanged, and wage growth has been modest. Contacts expressed elevated uncertainty and concern that tariffs would result in further cost increases.
• Minneapolis: The District economy contracted slightly overall. Employment was flat and wages grew moderately. Some employers were preparing contingency plans for potential layoffs. Prices increased moderately overall; some contacts were adding or considering tariff surcharges. Manufacturing increased moderately and consumer spending fell. Agricultural conditions remained weak, but crop progress was solid.
• Kansas City: Overall activity declined moderately, driven by lower retail spending, a decline in the demand for single-family homes, and a slight contraction in manufacturing. Businesses indicated they were increasingly cautious about hiring plans and capital expenditures, but employment levels were steady.
• Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District economy was little changed over the reporting period. Nonfinancial services activity held steady and growth in the manufacturing sector slowed. Loan volumes grew slightly, and the housing market remained subdued. Employment was flat and price pressures held steady except for the tariff-related increases seen in the manufacturing sector. Outlooks generally deteriorated, and tariff uncertainty was making it hard for businesses to plan for the future.
• San Francisco: Economic activity slowed slightly. Employment levels were generally stable. Wages rose slightly and prices increased modestly. Retail sales and consumer and business services demand eased. Conditions in manufacturing, agriculture, and real estate markets softened slightly. Activity in the financial services sector was stable.

And finally, confirming that contrary to conventional wisdom the economic picture has been largely unchanged since April, the latest February Beige Book saw just 1 mention of recessions, the lowest this year, and down sharply from 6 three months prior. Where there was some concern is that mentions of "slow" rose from from 50 in April (which was down to 53, the biggest highlight for another month is that contrary to prevailing media narratives, mentions of inflation actually rose ever so modestly from a three-year low of 8 to 10, the second lowest going back to the start of 2022.

All of which suggests that the US economy - while hardly on fire as it was during the hyperinflationary period of Biden's admin - continues to chug along and is hardly collapsing as so many Trump foes would like to see; and it certainly is not seeing prices explode higher.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-finds-us-economy-diverging-party-lines-no-trace-runaway-inflation