Molina Q1 2026 adj EPS $2.35 beats on lower medical costs as 2026 EPS guidance reaffirmed at ≥$5

 

• Q1 adjusted EPS $2.35 beat $1.57 estimate on $10.2B premium revenue; consolidated MCR 91.1% and pretax margin 1.6%.
• Total Q1 2026 revenue $10.8B, down 3% year over year, missing analyst revenue estimates.
• Latest SEC filing reports Q1 2026 GAAP EPS $0.27 on $10.2B in premium revenue.
• Management said Q1 results were modestly better than internal and external expectations across all three segments.
• 2026 guidance reaffirmed for premium revenue ≈$42B and adjusted EPS at least $5, despite Q1 upside.
• Medicaid 2025 trend was 7.5%, including 250 bps acuity; 2026 Medicaid trend assumption reduced to 5%.
• Q1 Medicaid trend and MCR were modestly favorable; management believes post‑redetermination acuity shift is now behind them.
• Medicaid membership attrition outlook worsened to -6% from -2%, mainly in CA, IL, NY and TX.
• Marketplace exposure reduced; Q1 Marketplace MCR 84% (≈79.5% excluding prior‑year items) with 70% renewals and 50% silver mix.
• Medicare segment guided to 2026 revenue $6.6B and EPS drag of $1.25, mostly from MAPD losses.
• MAPD exit planned for 2027, including $93M impairment; duals business (~$5.5B revenue, 94% MCR) expected to improve with better Stars.
• Operating cash flow $1.1B; parent cash $213M now, targeted above $600M by year‑end via upstream dividends.
• Main concern remains uncertainty around Medicaid cost trend, redetermination impacts and regulatory changes despite favorable early data.
• Strong quarter driven by better‑than‑expected medical cost trend and improved Marketplace and duals profitability.

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