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Saturday, June 14, 2025
NYT and conflict of interest: Where have they been?
The Fed Is Behind the Curve on Cutting Interest Rates
Inflation slowed to 0.1% in May, providing another opportunity for the Federal Reserve to rethink its behind-the-curve interest rate policy. Many signs indicate that rates should be lower, but the Fed has chosen to keep the interest rate steady because of its limits-to-growth economic models.
The Labor Department’s May survey of households found 700,000 fewer people with jobs than in April, a clear sign of strain in small businesses. The prime interest rate is 7.5%, too high for most businesses. Credit-card interest rates are above 20%, a record high. The mortgage rate is prohibitive, driving up housing costs and rents. Monthly mortgage payments are at a record high, and builder confidence is down.
Other major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, have cut their rates repeatedly in recent months, recognizing the global trend toward disinflation. The fed-funds rate, at 4.3%, is at least double the policy interest rates in Europe and Japan. President Trump’s tariffs have stopped China from dumping products here, but rather than reduce excess manufacturing, China has responded by dumping its products worldwide, exporting deflation. Global growth forecasts have slowed markedly, with the U.K. reporting a contraction in gross domestic product on Thursday.
This leaves the Fed as far behind the global disinflation trend as it was behind the inflation trend during the 2023-24 election cycle. These repeated lags in interest rates—driving through the rear-view mirror—harm the economy by widening the swings in inflation and interest rates.
A clear path is available to the Fed to lower interest rates as Mr. Trump’s policies add critical manufacturing and energy capacity and give priority to a stable dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Strong growth based on increased market-based production is fully consistent with the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Price stability leads to strong private-sector investment and job growth, which in turn fosters the robust production needed for price stability. It’s a virtuous circle that leads to lower interest rates, higher wages and improved affordability.
Voters elected Mr. Trump not only to boost the economy but also to fix broken monetary policy, promote after-tax wage gains, and protect the dollar. The president champions the forgotten man, and his economic policies so far have been a home run. In a growth economy, small businesses can offer more jobs at higher wages and still make a profit.
By contrast, the Fed’s models depend on slowing the growth rate to avoid overheating. The Fed is locked into high rates by a “limits to growth” fallacy—the idea that the U.S. economy has a low potential growth rate that shouldn’t be exceeded.
This hurts the economy, especially the small business investment needed to build the domestic supply chain. The amount of commercial and industrial loans outstanding—the lifeblood of small business working capital—is less now than in January 2023, even in nominal terms. That isn’t enough to power economic growth or even keep up with inflation.
The Fed has created multiple obstacles to small business lending. The Fed’s regulatory policies guide banks away from small business loans. Further, its post-2008 balance-sheet policy of owning long-term government bonds favors government and big business at the expense of small and new businesses. The Fed is offering such high interest rates to banks (4.4%) and money-market funds (4.3%) that it crowds out small businesses. This limits the growth that is needed to pay for wage increases.
The Trump administration is transforming the economy for the better by deregulating, encouraging businesses to invest, cutting tax rates and empowering domestic producers in the energy sector and other industries. As growth prospects improve, especially if the reconciliation bill makes the tax cuts permanent, the Fed’s antiquated models will likely argue against rate cuts. Many innovative small businesses are confident in what they have to offer but can’t afford new investment, so they wait too. The risk is that underinvestment could impede necessary growth in domestic supply chains.
As the Fed drags its feet, taxpayers also bear a huge cost because the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are the world’s biggest borrowers in short-term credit markets. The Fed’s choice of high rates is adding rapidly to the government’s interest expense and the national debt. The Fed uses the loans it gets from banks and money-market funds to hold on to a $6 trillion bond portfolio that is deep underwater. Today’s Fed is effectively the world’s biggest hedge fund. Its losses are already $1 trillion and will grow until interest rates come down.
The Fed is using the same demand-side models that have caused cycles of inflation and deflation since the 1970s. In these pages in 2002, I argued that the Fed hadn’t analyzed its deflation mistake of the late 1990s—the mistake that led to the Asian financial crisis and the 65% decline in the Nasdaq index—and was at risk of making repeated mistakes in inflation and deflation because of the lagging nature of its indicators. Those models need to be replaced with pro-growth, stable-dollar principles that can achieve both the Fed’s dual mandate and Mr. Trump’s vision of a strong, productive, high-wage economy.
David Malpass was an undersecretary of the U.S. Treasury 2017-19 and president of the World Bank 2019-23. He is a distinguished fellow in international finance at Purdue’s Mitch Daniels School of Business.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-fed-is-behind-the-curve-on-cutting-interest-rates-2dbe71ac?st=ubzK1w
Secret Service Followed Protocol in Padilla Incident
California Sen. Alex Padilla is getting plenty of mileage out of his scuffle with the Secret Service and federal authorities in Los Angeles Thursday.
Padilla’s Senate and campaign X.com accounts posted a total of seven outraged videos in the first 24 hours after the altercation.
Viral videos of the incident show a Secret Service agent dragging a fuming Padilla out of a press conference with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and he identifies himself as a senator only as he’s being pushed out the door. The agent then forces Padilla to the ground, while two agents handcuff him.
Padilla, however, wasn’t arrested. Within the hour, agents released him with no charges.
Dozens of Democratic members of Congress then jumped to Padilla’s defense, denouncing the action while casting the Secret Service and FBI agents involved as an extension of what they labeled as President Trump’s totalitarian police state.
Sen. Schumer called the Secret Service’s use of force “cruel and unacceptable.”
“This was a deliberate attempt to intimidate an elected official whose only offense is standing up for the voiceless,” Schumer said. “But it’s not just about Sen. Padilla, it’s about every person who dares to speak truth to power.”
Republicans and conservative commentators countered that it was all a big publicity stunt and noted that a Padilla staffer filmed the tussle and then quickly distributed it to the media in the room.
“Sen. Padilla didn’t want answers – he wanted airtime,” Rep. Byron Donalds said on Fox News Thursday night. “Shoving past security for a viral moment is a stunt, not leadership. If he cared about solutions, he’d have asked for a meeting. But like most Democrats, he just wants the spotlight.”
“Alex Padilla is an embarrassment to California,” said Steve Hilton, who is running for governor in California as a Republican. “He’s a complete nonentity. That’s why they didn’t recognize him … [he has] zero accomplishments and now this pathetic stunt as his only claim to fame.”
Yet, one Republican, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, an ardent Trump critic, condemned Padilla’s treatment as “shocking at every level” and “not the America I know.”
Secret Service experts argue nothing could be further from the truth – that the agent was simply following normal protocol. Padilla, they said, actually received preferential treatment by not being arrested and jailed for his menacing display. The Secret Service agent warned Padilla, whom agents did not recognize as a senator and who wasn’t wearing his Senate pin, to back away from Noem and then forcibly removed him when he ignored their entreaties.
“They can represent this however they want, but those agents made the right decision to get him out of the room,” Charles Marino, a former Secret Service agent told RealClearPolitics. “He did not have a congressional pin on, he was yelling and closing distance very quickly to make it to the front of the room to confront Noem.”
“Look, he’s not above the law. Anyone taking those actions would been treated far worse – they would have been arrested and been forced to spend some time in jail,” Marino said. “Who was escalating the situation? When you look at Padilla’s action, taken in totality, the agents had no other choice.”
Instead of dragging him to a cell, federal agents released the senator after the incident. Then Noem met with Padilla for 15 minutes and gave him her cell phone number to discuss matters further.
“We probably disagree on 90% of the topics, but we agreed to exchange phone numbers and continue to talk – that is the way it should be in this country,” Noem told Fox News Thursday afternoon.
The Homeland Security Department issued a statement Thursday defending the federal agents’ actions, arguing that Padilla chose “disrespectful political theater” over constructive congressional oversight.
Padilla, the agency said, “interrupted a live press conference without identifying himself or having his Senate security pin on as he lunged toward Secretary Noem.”
“Mr. Padilla was told repeatedly to back away and did not comply with officers’ repeated commands,” the department added. “@Secret Service thought he was an attacker and officers acted appropriately.”
Several other Secret Service sources backed up Marino’s account.
“Any sudden movement towards a protectee that feels threatening, especially when that person has not been identified, the policy is 100% to prevent further escalation or movement toward Noem,” said a source in the Secret Service community. “We would have done the same thing for anyone threatening [former DHS Secretary] Mayorkas.”
Even though the situation escalated very quickly, the agent still followed the basic rules of engagement for law enforcement, the source asserted. Agents and officers first ask a person to move away from the protectee, then they tell them firmly to move away, and if those warnings aren’t abided, then they can use physical force to move the threatening person away.
“It’s a pretty common law enforcement way of relaying information and taking action, because emotions can get the best of people, and agents are forced to err on the side of protection,” the source added.
After the two assassination attempts against Trump, agents are highly attuned to aggressive behavior and working to ensure they’re not involved in any security lapses.
“In this day and age, you can see what a split-second hesitate could result in,” one former agent remarked. “Could you imagine if the agent didn’t respond, and Padilla got on the stage and hit [Noem]?”
The agency has been knocked around for months for the egregious security failures in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13 and then nearly two months later during another close call against Trump at his West Palm Beach golf course.
And just because it’s Padilla who was attending a press conference doesn’t mean assaults against a Cabinet secretary or president are unlikely to occur. During a December 2008 press conference in Iraq, an Iraqi journalist threw both of his shoes at former President George W. Bush in a pique of outrage.
Secret Service agents with their zero-fail mission have to be poised to respond to all types of unexpected threats, which sometimes come with no warning at all.
Back in 2005, during Bush’s visit to the country of Georgia, a man attempted to assassinate Bush and then-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili by throwing a hand grenade at both of them.
“Listen, we don’t always know who you are if you’re not wearing your [congressional] pin,” the source said. “You’re coming at [Noem] in an aggressive manner, and you didn’t heed our warnings to stop. If you get into the buffer zone, we have to take you down. All public officials should know, and I would hope understand, that.”
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.
Security boosted at military facilities in the US, says US military
The U.S. military has stepped up security at all military installations in the United States "based on world events," U.S. Northern Command said on Saturday, as Israel launched a second day of airstrikes against Iran.
U.S. Northern Command, which oversees the defense of the continental U.S. and Alaska, said in a statement that employees and visitors "should plan for increased security measures" at its installations "and/or longer wait times" to enter them.
Additional security measures at all facilities "will be maintained as long as necessary. We are not aware of specific threats to installations," the statement said.
Lilly’s Experimental Obesity Drug Shows Promise in Early Study
An experimental weight-loss drug from Eli Lilly & Co. helped patients lose weight with few side effects, according to the summary of a small study that suggests the company has another foothold in the obesity market.
The drug, called eloralintide, helped some patients lose more than 11% of their body weight in three months, according to an abstract posted Friday ahead of the American Diabetes Association conference in Chicago. The drug is moving to the next stage of development and researchers will present details on dosing and safety at the conference next week.
