Iranian Parliament Backs Strait Of Hormuz Closure, Oil Market Braces

 Iranian state-owned outlet Press TV has released a new report quoting Major General Kowsari, a senior member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, who stated:

"The Parliament has reached the conclusion that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision in this regard lies with the Supreme National Security Council." 

If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei approves the proposed closure of the critical maritime chokepoint—through which approximately 30% of global seaborne oil and 20% of LNG transit—Brent crude and natural gas futures will surge sharply this evening. 

Reuters earlier cited lawmaker and Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari, who told Young Journalist Club that closing the critical maritime checkpoint is on the agenda and "will be done whenever necessary."

And this. 

Crypto-based prediction market Polymarket shows that odds for a "Strait of Hormuz closure by July" surged from roughly 15% before the U.S. B-2 stealth bomber strikes on Iran's key nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—to as high as 60% earlier today, reflecting a sharp repricing of geopolitical risk.

The potential closure of the strait was recently outlined in a "worst-case scenario" by JPMorgan's chief commodity strategist, Natasha Kaneva (available to pro subscribers in the usual place). The note cautioned that a severe outcome could send oil prices into the $120-$130 per barrel range. 

London-based oil strategist at Bloomberg, Julian Lee, penned several important questions about what would happen if Iran tried to close the critical maritime chokepoint:

Could Iran really block the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran would have no legal authority to order a halt to traffic through Hormuz, so would need to achieve this by force or the threat of force.

If its navy tried to bar entry to the strait, it would likely be met with a strong response from the U.S. Fifth Fleet and other Western navies patrolling the area.

But it could cause severe disruption without a single Iranian warship leaving port. One option would be to harry shipping with small, fast patrol boats. Or it could launch drones and fire missiles toward ships from coastal or inland sites. That could make it too risky for commercial ships to venture through.

Similar tactics have been employed successfully by the Houthi militia in Yemen to disrupt traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait leading into the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian peninsula. The Houthis have mostly fired missiles and drones at ships after warning owners of vessels linked to the U.S., the UK and Israel that they will be attacked if they approach the area.

A US-led force in the Red Sea is seeking to protect shipping there. But the number of ships sailing through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was still down about 70% in June compared with the average level of 2022 and 2023, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd, a unit of the world's largest shipbroker. This has forced vessel operators to reroute their traffic around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Suez Canal — a lengthier and more expensive journey for ships traveling between Asia and Europe.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz would quickly hit Iran's own economy as it would prevent it from exporting its petroleum. And it would antagonize China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil and a critical partner that's used its veto power at the UN Security Council to shield Iran from Western-led sanctions or resolutions.

When has Iran disrupted shipping?

Iran has used harassment of ships in the Gulf for decades to register its dissatisfaction with sanctions against it, or as leverage in disputes.

• In April 2024, hours before launching a drone and missile attack on Israel, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran released the ship's crew the following month, according to trade publication Lloyd's List. Tehran claimed that the MSC Aries had violated maritime regulations, but analysts pointed to its Israeli ownership connection as a motive.
• When it seized a US-bound tanker in April 2023, Iran said the ship had struck another vessel. But the move appeared to be retaliation for the seizure off Malaysia's coast of a ship loaded with Iranian crude by U.S. authorities on the grounds of sanctions violations.
• In May 2022, Iran seized two Greek tankers and held them for six months, presumably a response to the confiscation by Greek and U.S. authorities of Iranian oil on a different ship. The cargo was eventually released and the Greek tankers freed. So, too, was the oil on a tanker that Iran said it impounded in January "in retaliation for the theft of oil by the US."

Has Iran ever closed the Strait of Hormuz?

Not so far. During the 1980-88 war between Iraq and Iran, Iraqi forces attacked an oil export terminal at Kharg Island, northwest of the strait, in part to provoke an Iranian retaliation that would draw the U.S. into the conflict. Afterward, in what was called the Tanker War, the two sides attacked 451 vessels between them. That significantly raised the cost of insuring tankers and helped push up oil prices. When sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2011, it threatened to close the strait, but ultimately backed off.

Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces, said shortly before the MSC Aries seizure that Iran has the option of disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but chooses not to.

How did the U.S. and allies respond to threats to Hormuz shipping in the past?

During the Tanker War, the U.S. Navy resorted to escorting vessels through the Gulf. In 2019, it dispatched an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the region. The same year, the U.S. started Operation Sentinel in response to Iran's disruption of shipping. Ten other nations — including the UK, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain — later joined the operation, known now as the International Maritime Security Construct. Since late 2023, much of the focus on protecting shipping has switched away from the Strait of Hormuz and onto the southern Red Sea, the region's other vital waterway, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that connects it to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis on shipping entering or exiting the Red Sea became a greater concern than the Strait of Hormuz.

UK-flagged tanker Kohzan Maru reversed course in the Strait of Hormuz overnight after the strikes became public. 

Latest ship tracking data via Bloomberg shows tankers are still flowing through the maritime chokepoint.

Other critical maritime chokepoints to keep an eye on in the region.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued this warning to Iran on Fox News: "If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it and we retain options to deal with that." 

Now the West waits for Iran's retaliatory attack. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/iranian-parliament-backs-strait-hormuz-closure-brent-market-braces-turmoil

'Caloric reset driven by GLP-1 drugs could cut food volumes by over 10%'

  A long-term shift in U.S. calorie consumption, spurred by rising use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, could reduce packaged food and beverage volumes by more than 10%, Bank of America said.

Analysts said the widespread adoption of GLP-1 therapies, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, is driving a “caloric reset” that suppresses appetite and reduces consumer preference for salty, sweet and high-fat foods.

That shift poses a structural risk to processed and convenience food makers, particularly in categories like confectionery, bakery and flavored beverages.

“We believe it could drive -30-40% caloric reduction for obese persons and cumulative LT volume declines of more than -10% for Food & Beverage, with the largest impacts on center store snacking, convenient, and indulgent occasions,” BofA wrote.

While only 2–3% of U.S. adults currently use GLP-1s, the bank expects adoption could reach high single digits in five years, with long-term potential near 35%, comparable to statin use, given rising prescriptions, future oral versions, and broader insurance coverage.

Volume losses would likely be gradual, about 1–2% annually, but could accelerate as drug use scales, the note said.

Categories with the highest exposure include Hershey, Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Smucker, and Hostess-parent Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO), due to their sugar and fat content. Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP) was cited for its exposure in beverages.

In contrast, companies with higher fiber or protein content in their portfolios, such as Conagra and General Mills (NYSE:GIS), are better positioned, while others may be forced to reformulate products or pivot through acquisitions.

The note flagged that adapting to changing dietary trends could be costly, especially as GLP-1 users seek more nutrient-dense, satiating foods.

Manufacturers may face growing pressure to reshape portfolios faster than current bolt-on M&A  strategies suggest, according to the analysts.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/caloric-reset-driven-by-glp1-drugs-could-cut-food-volumes-by-over-10-4102074

Roche's Investigational Therapy for Lymphoma Demonstrates 'Significant' Improvement

 Roche Holding said a combination of Lunsumio and Polivy significantly prolonged remission for patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma in a late-stage trial.

The Swiss pharmaceutical group said administering Lunsumio along with Polivy showed clinically a significant improvement in its primary endpoints of progression-free survival and objective response rate compared to other drugs in people with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.

The results for Lunsumio, also known as mosunetuzumab, and Polivy, also known as polatuzumab vedotin, came as part of a phase 3 study. Roche said it would now submit results to global health authorities, including the Food and Drug Administration in the U.S.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202506205483/roches-lymphoma-treatment-shows-promise-in-late-stage-trial

Airlines keep avoiding Middle East airspace after US attack on Iran

 Airlines continued to avoid large parts of the Middle East on Sunday after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24, with traffic already skirting airspace in the region due to recent missile exchanges.

"Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, commercial traffic in the region is operating as it has since new airspace restrictions were put into place last week," FlightRadar24 said on social media platform X.

Its website showed airlines were not flying in the airspace over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Israel. They have chosen other routings such as north via the Caspian Sea or south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia, even if it results in higher fuel and crew costs and longer flight times.

Missile and drone barrages in an expanding number of conflict zones globally represent a high risk to airline traffic.

Safe Airspace, a website run by OPSGROUP, a membership-based organisation that shares flight risk information, said on Sunday that the U.S. attacks on Iran may increase risks to U.S. operators in the region.

"While there have been no specific threats made against civil aviation, Iran has previously warned it would retaliate by attacking US military interests in the Middle East - either directly or via proxies such as Hezbollah," Safe Airspace said.

Since Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13, carriers have suspended flights to destinations in the affected countries, though there have been some evacuation flights from neighbouring nations and some bringing stranded Israelis home.

In the days before the U.S. strikes on Iran, American Airlines suspended flights to Qatar, and United Airlines did the same with flights to Dubai.

Safe Airspace said it was possible airspace risks could now extend to countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

"We continue to advise a high degree of caution at this time," it said.

Israel's largest carriers, El Al Israel Airlines, Arkia and Israir, said on Sunday they were suspending rescue flights that allowed people to return to Israel until further notice. El Al said it would also extend its cancellation of scheduled flights through June 27.

Israel's airports authority said the country's airspace was closed for all flights, but land crossings with Egypt and Jordan remained open.

Tens of thousands of Israelis and others who had booked tickets to Israel are stuck abroad.

At the same time, nearly 40,000 tourists in Israel are looking to leave the country, some of whom are going via Jordan's borders to Amman and others by boat to Cyprus.

The tourism ministry is trying to facilitate getting these people out.

Japan's foreign ministry said on Sunday it had evacuated 21 people, including 16 Japanese nationals, from Iran overland to Azerbaijan. It said it was the second such evacuation since Thursday and that it would conduct further evacuations if necessary.

New Zealand's government said on Sunday it would send a Hercules military transport plane to the Middle East on standby to evacuate New Zealanders from the region.

It said in a statement that government personnel and a C-130J Hercules aircraft would leave Auckland on Monday. The plane would take some days to reach the region, it said.

The government was also in talks with commercial airlines to assess how they may be able to assist, it added.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Airlines-keep-avoiding-Middle-East-airspace-after-US-attack-on-Iran-50301380/

'MORE investor reaction to Iran strike'

SAUL KAVONIC, SENIOR ENERGY ANALYST, MST MARQUEE, SYDNEY:

"This escalation could add enough pressure on Iran to see Iran back down and accept a deal that de-escalates the conflict and brings down oil prices with it.

"The more likely scenario: This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict to include Iran responding by targeting regional American interests that could include gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harrassing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened too. The information warfare that appears designed to have caught Iran off guard has also caught oil markets off guard to a degree."

RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE:

"The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, with direct U.S. involvement likely to prolong tensions in the region.

"For Asian markets, the key vulnerability lies in their sensitivity to higher energy prices. A protracted conflict raises the risk of supply disruptions, which could feed into inflationary pressures and weigh on growth expectations across the region.

"With the prospects of a swift resolution now diminished, investors are likely to reprice risk across markets. I expect to see a flight to safety, with the USD bid and broad-based weakness across Asian risk assets as markets assess the potential fallout from sustained geopolitical instability and elevated oil prices."

ALEX MORRIS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON DC:

Morris expects crude oil will spike to $80 or more when it resumes trading.

"That's the next stop as a knee-jerk reaction. I think that's the reason this happened on a Saturday and not a Sunday. There's a lot more that is going to happen over the next 24 hours"

ERIC BEYRICH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SOUND INCOME STRATEGIES, LARCHMONT, NEW YORK:

"If there is nuclear fallout – all bets are off. The regime is going to conclude that it has lost everything and will do all kinds of crazy things, like commissioning terrorist attacks on embassies."

CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, NEW YORK:

“There is a plethora of potential ramifications but it appears as if the strikes were targeted, discreet, and discriminating. If so, and if the oil exporting capacity of Iran has not been compromised, then the economic fallout should be contained.

"A short-term pop in oil prices will be viewed by the Fed less as a factor that increases input costs and feeds through to inflation than it will be as a tax on consumers that suppresses demand. I wouldn't expect this to factor into the Fed's decision calculus unless the spike in oil prices is sustained."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/view-investors-react-us-attack-iran-nuclear-sites-2025-06-22/

Top Ayatollah adviser declares ‘it is now our turn’ after US strikes on Iran

 

A top adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran “must launch missile strikes” against US Navy ships in response to President Trump’s decision to bomb nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic Saturday. 

Hossein Shariatmadari, a top adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ominously declared "it is now our turn" after the US bombed three Iran nuclear sites Saturday night.AFP via Getty Images

“Without hesitation or delay, as a first step we must launch missile strikes on the American naval fleet based in Bahrain," read a quote attributed to Shariatmadari.AFP via Getty Images

“Following America’s attack on the Fordow nuclear installation, it is now our turn,” warned Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the Kayhan newspaper, according to CNN. 

“Without hesitation or delay, as a first step we must launch missile strikes on the American naval fleet based in Bahrain and simultaneously close the Strait of Hormuz to American, British, German, and French shipping,” read a quote attributed to Shariatmadari, posted on Kayhan’s Telegram channel. 

Shariatmadari is well-known in Iran and has previously identified himself as Khamenei’s “representative,” according to CNN. Kayhan is widely considered the publication closest to the theocratic regime.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a televised speech on June 18, 2025.AP

Trump warned after the strikes that any retaliation against the US from Iran would be “MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT.” 

https://nypost.com/2025/06/21/world-news/us-strikes-iran-live-updates/

Zealand’s GLP-1/GLP-2 Drug Elicits Over 11% Weight-Loss—With the Potential for More

 

Analysts at William Blair say dapiglutide’s 11.6% weight reduction at 28 weeks could still be better, given that Zealand’s study predominantly included men and enrolled patients with lower BMI at baseline.

Zealand Pharma’s investigational obesity therapy dapiglutide reduced body weight by more than 11% after 28 weeks of treatment in an early-stage study. That’s an effect analysts say might even be an “underrepresentation” of its true weight-loss potential.

Writing to investors on Wednesday, William Blair analysts flagged the “atypical patient characteristics” in Zealand’s study: that 93% of its participants were male. “Given that females tend to experience a greater degree of weight loss, the reported weight loss may provide an underrepresentation of the degree of weight loss that could be observed in a more representative population.”

Unlike other obesity trials, Zealand’s study also had a “relatively low baseline body weight” of 91.9 kg, according to the analysts, who noted that this could have “exacerbated” the underestimation of dapiglutide’s weight-loss efficacy.

Dapiglutide’s formulation includes GLP-2, which the analysts said could help target inflammation. “This could be particularly beneficial in addressing weight-related comorbidities, such as leaky gut,” they continued. “Inflammation triggered by obesity can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, liver disease, and neuroinflammation.”

Wednesday’s topline readout comes from the second part of a Phase Ib multiple-ascending dose study, which enrolled 30 patients who were given either dapiglutide or placebo. Mean body weight dropped by 11.6% at 28 weeks of treatment with dapiglutide, whereas placebo comparators lost 0.2% of their weight over the same time period. Patients were not asked to implement lifestyle modifications, including changes in diet or exercise.

The study found dapiglutide to be safe and well-tolerated, with no severe or serious treatment-emergent adverse events. Side effects were consistent with the incretin class of therapies and were mostly mild or moderate in severity.

With Wednesday’s readout, Zealand further beefs up its obesity pipeline, which is anchored by the amylin analog petrelintide. That asset, designed to be delivered subcutaneously, is currently in Phase IIb development for overweight and obese patients with type 2 diabetes. Phase Ib data released in June 2024 demonstrated an 8.6% mean weight-loss after 16 weeks of treatment.

In March, Roche dropped $1.65 billion on the spot—and made a potential $2.4 billion pledge in milestones—to gain access to petrelintide, giving the pharma the right to co-develop and co-commercialize the asset. Roche and Zealand will split profits and losses 50/50 in the U.S. and Europe, while Roche will take charge everywhere else and give Zealand tiered double-digit royalties.

The prospects of this partnership seem bright, at least according to William Blair. In the Wednesday note, analysts wrote “we believe that Zealand is well positioned to capture market share in the obesity space with lead asset petrelintide. In our view, the candidate has demonstrated encouraging initial weight loss and safety data in Phase Ib studies.”

https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/zealands-glp-1-glp-2-drug-elicits-over-11-weight-loss-with-the-potential-for-more