Controversial Biogen Drug Could Become A Major Blockbuster

 A controversial Alzheimer's drug that has weighed on Biogen stock this year could ultimately become a major blockbuster within five years, a group predicted Tuesday.

The experimental Biogen (BIIB) medicine developed with Eisai is called aducanumab. It leads research company Clarivate's list of drugs to watch for 2021. Others on the list include a psoriasis treatment from Belgium's UCB, a cancer drug initially developed by Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) and a heart-failure med from Bayer (BAYRY) and Merck (MRK).

Clarivate expects all four medicines to deliver annual sales that top $1 billion within five years. The list is more conservative than usual, trending toward specialty drugs that have a chance of expanding gradually into other uses.

"Despite the many challenges of 2020, drug development triumphed," the analysts said in the report.

Biogen Stock: Aducanumab Remains Promising

Biogen stock stands a chance of benefiting handsomely if Alzheimer's drug aducanumab wins Food and Drug Administration approval this summer.

The drug has a complicated history. In March 2019, Biogen said aducanumab failed in two late-stage clinical studies. Months later, the company reversed course, saying the drug actually succeeded in one of those tests. Last year, Biogen submitted its application for aducanumab approval.

Despite a seemingly positive FDA view of the drug, an advisory committee of experts voted against recommending aducanumab's approval. Now, the drug is in the FDA's court. The FDA recently said it would hold off making a decision until June 7 — a three-month delay.

Biogen stock has yo-yoed on these news items. Shares fell 1.3% to 266.49 on today's stock market.

Analysts Expect Approval

But Clarivate analysts expect the FDA to approve aducanumab. There have been no novel therapies approved for Alzheimer's disease in more than 15 years. Further, aducanumab modifies the course of the disease, rather than just treating the symptoms, they said.

"Aducanumab could unlock a monumental opportunity to radically change AD patient care and transform the market," they said. "If approved, demand for treatment will be enormous, potentially even decreasing willingness to forgo this treatment for an investigational drug in future clinical trials."

They expect the Biogen and Eisai drug to bring in $3.74 billion in 2025. Currently there are about 50 million people globally with Alzheimer's disease. But that number is expected to grow 30% by 2029 as the world's population ages.

So, Biogen stock investors are closely watching for more news on aducanumab.

Other Potential Blockbusters

Another potential blockbuster includes UCB's experimental psoriasis treatment, bimekizumab.

Bimekizumab blocks two substances in the body thought to cause psoriasis and other inflammatory diseases. The analysts expect it to be the most effective drug in its class and to have fewer serious side effects than its peers. It could bring in $1.86 billion in sales in 2025.

Clarivate analysts also expect a drug called Orgovyx to generate $1.48 billion in sales that year. Takeda initially developed the drug before licensing it to Myovant Sciences (MYOV). Myovant is now commercializing Orgovyx with Pfizer (PFE) and specialty pharma company Gedeon Richter. The FDA has approved Orgovyx to treat prostate cancer. It's being tested in endometriosis and uterine fibroids. Myovant stock popped 7.3% to 23.72.

Rounding out the list, Bayer and Merck's Verquvo treats a specific population of patients with a high risk of chronic heart failure. Analysts expect Verquvo sales of $1.21 billion in 2025. Bayer climbed 0.7% to 15.75. Merck ticked down a fraction to 74.14.

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