Is Vaxart Stock Set To Decline Further?

Vaxart  (NASDAQ: VXRT) dropped -8% over the last five trading days and has underperformed the S&P 500 which remained roughly flat over the same period. The stock is also down by about -27% over the last month (twenty-one trading days), although it remains up by 29% year-to-date. Vaxart stock has seen a lot of volatility this year, rallying considerably in late January, in anticipation of the phase 1 data readout for the company’s tablet-based Covid-19 vaccine candidate and also due to increased attention from retail investors who were betting on small stocks with high short interest, following the GameStop short squeeze. However, the stock plummeted in early February after early-stage data indicated that the vaccine provided a lackluster antibody response against the Coronavirus. (see our updates below) Now, is Vaxart stock set to decline further or should we expect a recovery? There is a 53% chance that Vaxart stock will decline over the next month based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on VXRT Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Overall, we think Vaxart stock looks somewhat risky at current levels of around $7.50 per share. The antibody response is the yardstick by which investors have been judging the potential efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines in phase 1 trials and Vaxart’s candidate fared badly on this front, failing to induce neutralizing antibodies in most trial subjects. In contrast, shots from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) produced antibodies in 100% of participants in phase 1 trials. Apart from the efficacy concerns, the company’s development timeline also trails behind market leaders by multiple quarters. Vaxart has no revenue-generating products yet, with the most advanced development in its pipeline being a vaccine for seasonal influenza which is currently in phase 2 trials. Even after the big sell-off, the stock remains up by about 6x over the last 12 months.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/is-vaxart-stock-set-to-decline-further-2021-03-03