Ultimovacs (ULTI): Initiation - Cancer vaccine with virtually universal potential

 Edison Investment Research Limited

Ultimovacs (ULTI): Initiation - Cancer vaccine with virtually universal potential 
17-March-2021 / 09:07 GMT/BST 
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London, UK, 17 March 2021 
 
 Ultimovacs (ULTI): Initiation - Cancer vaccine with virtually universal potential 
Ultimovacs is a biotechnology company focused on developing a next generation cancer vaccine with virtually universal 
potential. Lead asset, UV1, activates the immune system to recognise cancer cells that express human telomerase reverse 
transcriptase (hTERT, or telomerase), which is present in over 85% of all cancer types. For this reason, UV1 has broad 
potential in a variety of cancers and in combination with other treatments. Ultimovacs' R&D strategy is to combine UV1 
with checkpoint inhibitors (CPIs) due to an expected treatment synergy. The broad R&D programme includes four Phase II 
trials in different solid tumours, which will enrol more than 500 patients in total. Readouts are expected over 2022/ 
2023, all within cash reach. Our Ultimovacs valuation is NOK3.18bn or NOK99.4 per share. 
 
We value Ultimovacs at NOK3.18bn or NOK99.4 per share (rNPV analysis using a 12.5% discount rate, net cash of NOK441m 
at end-2020). Our model includes UV1 in all four indications being evaluated in the Phase II trials, with a probability 
of reaching the market of 20%. We use a bottom-up approach to calculate the market sizes and industry average data for 
the basis of our other assumptions (Exhibits 6 and 7). We assume a full out-licensing deal for UV1 with the partner 
taking over the Phase III development and commercialisation. 
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