A painful cut to guidance by one of the sector’s success stories is far from what biotech needs right now. But this is exactly what Seagen delivered, yesterday taking the axe to sales forecasts for all three of its top cancer drugs. The best the sellside could muster was that the company tends to guide conservatively, but this provided little comfort: Seagen's stock tanked 15% at the open today, slicing more than $3bn from its valuation. The biggest disappointment came with the Her2 kinase inhibitor Tukysa; guidance implies that sales might have already peaked after a mere two years on the market. The breast cancer drug is struggling to compete against astonishingly good data from Daiichi and Astrazeneca’s Enhertu, and the bull case for Tukysa – that strong CNS activity would continue to drive use in patients with brain metastases – is starting to feel like sheer optimism. Investors will have to hope that Seagen is laying out the worst-case scenario for 2022, but there are more risks to long-term numbers on the horizon. Several clinical readouts are looming that have the potential to take the company's products into new markets, and positive outcomes could not be more crucial.
| Swinging the axe: Seagen's sales vs expectations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual sales ($m) | |||||||||
| 2020 (actual) | 2021 (actual) | 2021 (consensus) | 2022 guidance | 2022 consensus | 2026 consensus | ||||
| Padcev | 222 | 340 | 323 | 435-455 | 544 | 2,323 | |||
| Tukysa | 120 | 334 | 324 | 315-355 | 534 | 1,535 | |||
| Adcetris | 659 | 706 | 700 | 730-755 | 804 | 1,387 | |||
| Source: Evaluate Pharma, company statements. | |||||||||
| Looking for long-term potential: key readouts for Seagen | ||
|---|---|---|
| Padcev (currently approved in 3rd-line metastatic urothelial cancer) | ||
| EV-103/Keynote-869 | Cohort H, Padcev monotherapy, neoadjuvant MIBC | Asco-GU February 17-19 |
| Cohort K, Padcev + Keytruda, 1st-line chemo ineligible metastatic urothelial (potential for AA) | H2'22 | |
| EV-302 | Padcev + Keytruda, 1st-line metastatic urothelial cancer | 2023 |
| Note: EU approval in 2nd-line setting paused for additional CHMP questions related to severe skin reactions. Final decision expected H2'22. | ||
| Tukysa (currently approved in 2nd-line metastatic breast cancer, on top of Herceptin and chemo) | ||
| Mountaineer | Tukysa +/- Herceptin in previously treated, metastatic Her2+ colorectal cancer | H2'22 |
| Note: MIBC=muscle-invasive bladder cancer; AA= accelerated approval. Source: Company statements, clinicaltrials.gov. https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/corporate-strategy-snippets/seagen-delivers-triple-blow | ||
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