Systemic administrative and policy challenges, including updated CDC guidelines regarding the use of RSV shots in seniors, have forced GSK to lower its 2024 outlook for its vaccines business.
In its second-quarter 2024 results on Wednesday, GSK announced that it is lowering its full-year forecast for its vaccines business.
GSK now expects its vaccines revenue to grow by a low- to mid-single-digit percent this year, down from its previous guidance of a high-single-digit to low-double-digit percent. The downward adjustment in outlook comes as its top two vaccine assets fell short of analyst expectations in Q2, hindered by systemic administrative and policy headwinds.
The company’s shingles vaccine Shingrix, which previously secured blockbuster status, made almost $1.07 billion in Q2–a 4% drop from the same period a year prior, at constant exchange rates. The decline was driven largely by Shingrix’ U.S. sales, which decreased 36% due to a new rule by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services that “changed how pharmacies process reimbursements from payers,” according to GSK.
Lower demand for the shingles vaccine due to “harder-to-reach consumers” also contributed to Shingrix’s weak performance in Q2, the company said.
GSK’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shot Arexvy also had a disappointing quarter. While the pharma touted the dominant market position of Arexvy, which accounted for “the overwhelming majority of doses … in the retail setting,” the vaccine’s total sales of $80 million missed analyst expectations of around $90 million, according to Reuters.
There are potential roadblocks ahead for Arexvy. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released updated guidelines for the use of RSV vaccines. Under the agency’s new protocols, RSV shots like Arexvy can now be given to seniors 75 years of age and older. However, in the 60-to-74-year age group, use of these vaccines is now limited to only those who are at risk of severe disease.
The CDC has yet to decide on whether it will back the use of RSV vaccines in younger seniors aged 50 to 59 years, a key population that GSK is hoping to target.
Despite the weaker-than-expected sales of its vaccines franchise, GSK performed well overall in Q2. The pharma reported that overall sales grew by 13% to more than $10.1 billion. GSK raised its full-year guidance for the entire business, now anticipating growth between 7% to 9% compared to its prior guidance of 5% to 7%.
GSK’s Specialty Medicines unit continues to be its top-earner, increasing 22% to bring in more than $3.8 billion in Q2. Cancer represents a strong area of growth for GSK. Its oncology portfolio nabbed $457 million in the quarter, a more-than 100% jump from the same period in 2023.
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