Polling Signals Trouble for Democrats -- and Opportunity for Republicans

If elections were held today, Democrats in Congress would be in deep political trouble.

 

That is not a partisan claim or conservative wishful thinking. It is the verdict of the opinion polls -- brutal, consistent, and increasingly bipartisan.

 

A recent Quinnipiac University survey shows that only 18 percent of voters approve of Democrats in Congress, while 73 percent disapprove. 

This is the worst figure Quinnipiac has recorded since it started tracking the question in 2009. That number alone would be concerning. But the deeper story, and the one Republicans should pay attention to, lies beneath the toplines.

For the first time in Quinnipiac’s history, Democrats themselves disapprove of their party’s performance in Congress. Only 42 percent of Democrat voters approve, while 48 percent disapprove. This marks a stunning collapse from just two months earlier, when approval stood at 58 percent. 

In other words, this isn’t just partisan polarization. It’s an intra-party revolt with Democrats turning against each other.

Among independents, the situation is even worse. Congressional Democrats have a net approval gap of minus 61 points. Independents, who determine modern elections, are not just drifting away - they are actively recoiling. 

 

Surprisingly, Republican voters are feeling the Christmas cheer, with 77 percent approving of the GOP Congress’s performance. 

 

When a governing party loses independents and its own base at the same time, it is no longer dealing with a messaging problem. It is facing a legitimacy crisis.

Even the usually dependable cable news spin rooms couldn't salvage these numbers. CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten, who is hardly a conservative firebrand, described Democrats as “lower than the Dead Sea,” noting that congressional Democrats now have a net approval rating of minus 55 points, the worst in over twenty years of polling. 

When analysts whose instinct is to provide context and ease the impact on Democrats give up hope, a fundamental change has occurred.

Other polling confirms the same conclusion. A recent Gallup survey shows public confidence in Democrat leadership in Congress at near historic lows, while trust in Republicans on issues like inflation, crime, border security, and government spending has steadily improved since late 2024. 

Likewise, Pew Research Center found widening enthusiasm gaps, “Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to have negative feelings about their own party.” This is an underappreciated but critical metric in midterm elections.

 

The irony is that Democrats are not losing ground because Republicans have become wildly popular. They are losing ground because voters increasingly see Democrats as ineffective, unfocused, and disconnected from daily concerns. 

In other words, the GOP is just the lesser of two evils. This is hardly a ringing endorsement.

Inflation rates have declined, but the steep price increases during the Biden years are here to stay. Prices are still rising, just at a slower pace.

The costs of housing, insurance, energy, and groceries are still painfully high. Immigration remains clearly unmanageable. Foreign conflicts increase while domestic confidence declines. 

Sure, there have been some deportations, but they are only a drop in the bucket compared to the tens of millions of illegal aliens in America. And hyper-partisan judges are going out of their way to keep criminal illegal aliens free in the country. Just last week, a Maryland judge ordered that “Maryland Man” Kilmar Abrego Garcia “remain free on supervised release.” 

 

And despite unified messaging about “threats to democracy,” voters seem more worried about threats to their personal safety and security. Taken together, these unresolved issues help explain why voter dissatisfaction is no longer abstract -- it is personal and immediate.

Recent generic-ballot polling highlights how fragile Democrats’ position really is. According to the RealClearPolitics national average, Democrats currently hold only about a 4-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, a historically weak margin for the party out of the White House. 

By comparison, in previous wave elections, Democrats had much larger advantages. In 2018, the RealClearPolitics average showed Democrats leading by 8 points, predicting their eventual eight-point popular vote win and House takeover. 

A similar pattern occurred in 2006, when Democrats also held a significant generic-ballot lead of 8 points, on their path to a landslide midterm. 

Political analysts have long observed that sustained generic-ballot leads near or above high single digits are usually necessary to secure a comfortable House majority. In this context, today’s slim Democrat advantage, despite a Republican president in office, indicates a party struggling to turn dissatisfaction with the opposition into real electoral enthusiasm.

For Republicans, this moment offers a real opportunity, but also serves as a warning. What will the “stupid party” do with such an opportunity?

The opportunity is clear. Democrats are losing support from independents and their own base. Their coalition appears less like a unified front and more like a coalition held together by opposition to Donald Trump. 

But opposition alone is a limited resource. If Democrats continue to be deeply unpopular on their own, Trump’s negatives might not be enough to save them.

But Republicans must resist the urge of complacency. Polls are signals, not guarantees. They are a snapshot in time, and the midterms are almost a year away.

The same surveys showing a Democrat decline also indicate that voters are not necessarily supporting Republicans out of enthusiasm; they are doing so by default. That distinction is important.

The lesson of the upcoming midterms is not that Republicans can relax, but that they need to unite. Voters clearly want competence, seriousness, and normalcy. They are exhausted by crisis politics, procedural disorder, and performative outrage from both sides. 

Republicans who emphasize inflation control, border enforcement, energy independence, crime reduction, and fiscal discipline will attract a receptive audience, especially among independents who feel politically homeless.

Equally important is tone. The data indicate that voters are not seeking maximalist rhetoric or internal conflict. They want results. Republicans who turn this moment into a personality contest or an endless re-litigation of past grievances risk wasting a rare alignment of political conditions.

President Trump may be an exception to this rule. His loud, bombastic style is familiar to voters, who elected him to the White House two, maybe three times.

The Democrats’ internal rebellion should also give Republicans clearer strategic guidance. When a party fights itself, as we are observing post-Charlie Kirk, primaries become disorganized, turnout drops, and messaging collapses. 

Even if Democrats regain ground institutionally, individual lawmakers might fall prey to base anger. This creates opportunities not just in swing districts but also in areas once deemed safe.

History shows that midterms punish the party perceived as governing badly, not simply the party in power. Currently, voters think Democrats are exactly that. 

If Republicans present themselves as the mature alternative -- disciplined, policy-focused, and prioritizing voters over vendettas -- the electoral rewards could be significant.

But opportunity is not destiny; it must be earned.

The polls are flashing warning lights for Democrats. Whether Republicans take advantage of them or just watch them flicker will decide not only the outcome of the next midterms but also the course of American politics for the rest of the decade.

 

Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/12/polling_signals_trouble_for_democrats_and_opportunity_for_republicans.html