A move by Elon Musk’s SpaceX to shut down Russia’s illegal use of Starlink satellite internet has dealt Moscow a fresh battlefield setback as its casualty rates soar.
On Feb. 1, SpaceX blocked unauthorized Starlink terminals in Ukraine after discovering them mounted on Russian weapons systems and drones obtained on the black market — a violation of Starlink’s terms of service, which ban the use of terminals in offensive operations.
Now, only verified Ukrainian devices are allowed to connect to Starlink — effectively locking Russian users out.
“For three to four days after the shutdown, they really reduced the assault operations,” said Lt. Denis Yaroslavsky, who commands a special reconnaissance unit for the Ukraine Armed Forces.
The disruption comes as Russia suffers its worst death rate since the start of the four-year-old war, US and Ukrainian intelligence officials tell The Post — threatening the Kremlin’s ability to replace those forces sent to slaughter by Vladimir Putin.
“On any given day, depending on your scale of analysis, my sector was already achieving 20:1 [casuality rate] before the shutdown. And we are an elite unit,” a unit commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps who goes by the codename “Jackie” told The Post, referring to inflicting 20 Russian casualties for every one suffered by their side.
“Regular units have no problem going 5:1 or 8:1.”
“With Starlink down, 13:1 [casualty rate] for a regular unit is easy,” he added.
While the rates vary from theater to theater,
While Russian-to-Ukrainian casualty ratios vary across the battlefield, the imbalance got as high as 27 Russian losses for every Ukrainian when they fought to regain the key city of Kupiansk in December, according to a Bloomberg report Monday citing an intelligence assessment provided to the British military.
“Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told European counterparts this week that Kyiv was able to inflict more Russian casualties than the Kremlin was able to recruit over the last two months,” Bloomberg reported, citing UK Defense Secretary John Healey.
In all, more than 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded or vanished since February 2022 — “more losses than any major power in any war since World War II,” according to a late January report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
That’s roughly twice the number of Ukraine’s casualties, which the report estimated at between 500,000 and 600,000.
Any degradation of Russia’s battlefield capabilities could shift leverage in Ukraine’s favor as the US pushes for a negotiated end to the conflict, analysts have said.
The elimination of Starlink has also affected the Russian military’s communication systems and methods, affecting the most basic of tools needed to conduct their war.
“I’m sure the Russians have [alternative options], but it takes time to maximize their implementation and this [would take] at least four to six months,” Yaroslavsky said.
Russia’s Rubikon drone unit, for example, saw its activity sharply drop after the restrictions took effect.
The unit had been using Starlink to extend the range of strike drones and coordinate attacks deep behind Ukrainian lines — giving Moscow a technological edge in key sectors of the front.
The group typically posts geographic details about its strikes to Telegram, but has since stopped the practice, “suggesting that SpaceX’s decision to restrict Russian forces’ access to Starlink on February 1 has been negatively impacting Rubikon’s strike campaign,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in its latest battlefield update on Sunday.
Starlink has been a backbone of Ukraine’s military communications since the invasion, but Russian forces increasingly exploited the same technology — raising alarms in Kyiv and Washington that a US-made system was helping Moscow wage war.
For now, Russian troops are scrambling for alternatives — but none match Starlink’s speed, mobility and reliability on the battlefield.
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