Cellphone tracking reveals coronavirus hit to U.S. economy

The millions of bits of cellphone data tracked by analytics firm Unacast show the economic impact of the coronavirus spreading across the United States like a deep freeze – long-distance travel was hit early on, but eventually overall retail foot traffic slowed to a crawl, too.

As the United States started shutting down to fight the coronavirus outbreak, Unacast data shows, one thing became clear: White House messaging matters.
When President Donald Trump declared a national emergency on March 13, there was an initial rush to grocery stores. Then visits to retail outlets overall collapsed by half in the following days, as even Americans who questioned the severity of the crisis appeared to accept it.
Since then, retail visits have remained deeply depressed according to a new foot traffic scorecard.

The New York firm tracks anonymized cellphone data from millions of people who opted to share their location through different apps, and cross-references it with physical “points of interest” including department stores, airports and other consumer-facing locations.
According to Unacast’s analysis, even states late to issue stay-at-home rules, such as Florida, have now seen large foot traffic declines, with only a few places, including South Dakota and Vermont, remaining close to their 2019 averages.
More noteworthy, said Unacast Chief Executive Thomas Walle, will be what the data reveals about when recovery starts – particularly if, as appears might be the case, some states control the virus earlier than others and begin to loosen restrictions sooner.
“People’s behavior is changing drastically and the number one data point to understand what is happening is mobility,” Walle said in an interview. “Social distancing and shelter in place is changing mobility patterns overnight.”
The ongoing retail freeze is no surprise in the midst of the pandemic, and has gone on long enough to start showing up in conventional economic data. U.S. retail sales in March fell by a record 8.7% as social distancing rules and mandated shutdowns expanded with the health crisis.
But the lag in most government data, collected through surveys or administrative records and released typically a month or more after the fact, has left policymakers partially blind to the depth and implications of the fast-moving epidemic.
Unacast’s retail traffic data and a popular social distancing scorecard that the company released earlier are part of a flurry of recent efforts to use real-time, technology-driven data to understand the economic impacts of the crisis and the health response.
Economists have teamed with companies like Unacast and Homebase, which provides time management software for small businesses, to aggregate data and show with more frequency the fast decline, for example, in hours worked at restaurants.
Research released this week (https://www.nber.org/papers/w26946.pdf) used cellphone data compiled by SafeGraph to study what researchers concluded is a partisan divide in the crisis response, with areas more supportive of Trump in the 2016 election less strict about social distancing.
That could all matter to the pace of the recovery, as economists look for signs things have stabilized and officials map out rules for a return to business.
Once that happens, cellphones may start moving again.
“Shutting down a store goes pretty quickly,” Walle said. “To reopen, the full machinery needs to be revamped – stocking up, bringing people in … What’s going to be important now is to look at the recovery – when it is going to happen, where it is going, where do you direct your goods at what time, in what order.”
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/Cellphone-tracking-reveals-coronavirus-hit-to-U-S-economy–30416252/

Germany to begin reopening economy on Monday

“We have achieved a fragile intermediate success, but we don’t have much room for maneuver, so we must continue by concentrating fully,” says German PM Angela Merkel, speaking at a press conference.

Retailers of up to 800 square meters may reopen on Monday. They will have to have a plan for “good hygiene,” and the situation will be re-evaluated every two weeks.

She says schools in her country will begin reopening on May 4.

Large public events will remain verboten until at least August 31.

Full list here

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3560962-germany-to-begin-reopening-economy-on-monday

CDC chief: US should brace for second wave of coronavirus to hit next year

The US should brace for a second wave of coronavirus cases to hit next year, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.
Dr. Robert Redfield said COVID-19 may turn out to be seasonal like other bugs such as the flu.
“I think we have to assume this is like other respiratory viruses, and there will be a seasonality to it,” Redfield told “Good Morning America.”
Redfield said that the country needs to ramp up testing capacity  now, and implement other control measures, such as contact tracing, to prepare for the possibility of the next large outbreak.
“The CDC is science-based, data-driven, [so] until we see it, we don’t know for certain [there will be a resurgence]” Redfield said. “But it is critical that we plan that this virus is likely to follow a seasonality pattern similar to flu, and we’re going to have another battle with it upfront and aggressively next winter.”
The CDC director said he refers to the strategy necessary to fight the virus as “block and tackle, block and tackle.”
“We are working hard to augment [public health tools] now so that as we get into the next season we’ll be able to stay in high containment mode while we complement that with some continued mitigation strategies,” Redfield.
More than 609,000 cases have been detected in the country, including at least 26,000 deaths, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/cdc-director-says-us-should-brace-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus-to-hit-next-year/

Novacyt ramping up production of COVID-19 test amid ‘significant’ demand

France-based Novacyt S.A. (OTC:NVYTF -29.9%) announces that unit Primerdesign has achieved a production run-rate of 4M per month of its COVID-19 molecular test with plans to scale up to 8M per month.

Anticipating strong ongoing demand, it has inked manufacturing deals with two UK-based firms aimed at supporting its existing partnership agreements.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3560941-novacyt-ramping-up-production-of-covidminus-19-test-amid-significant-demand

FDA OKs Use of Ortho’s High-Throughput, Automated COVID-19 Antibody Test

Ortho Clinical Diagnostics announced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted its total antibody assay for COVID-19 Emergency Use Authorization.
Antibody tests, also called serological tests, test if the individual has been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. It does not test if the patient has the disease, but rather if they had it and developed an immune response, which should provide immunity against the disease, although health authorities are not completely sure if or for how long that immunity will last.
The idea is that if people have developed immunity, they can return to a more normal life without worry of catching the disease. The tests can also be used to screen plasma donations for convalescent plasma therapy, which is believed to help critically ill COVID-19 patients fend off the virus. Wide antibody screening is considered essential for moving the world back to some level of normalcy.
The Ortho test is the VITROS Immunodiagnostic Products Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Total Reagent Pack and Calibrators. It is a high-throughput, automated COVID-19 antibody test. It can be run on the company’s laboratory analyzer, the VITROS XT 7600 Integrated System, the VITROS 3600 Immunodiagnostic System, the VITROS 5600 Integrated System and soon the VITROS ECi/ECiQ Immunodiagnostic Systems. These are already in use in more than 1,000 hospitals and reference labs in the U.S.
Already, some test kits have been shipped to high-priority areas. Ortho expects full production in a few weeks, with plans to manufacture several million tests over the next month, with rapid expansion afterwards.
“The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact individuals, families, and communities around the world,” said Chris Smith, Ortho’s chief executive officer. “Ortho is proud to be working toward large-scale solutions that will help people return to work, reducing the strain on both employees and the economy as a whole. Our focus on improving patients’ lives through diagnostics led us to rapidly develop this test, providing one of the key resources needed for diagnosing and treating COVID-19. We remain committed to helping laboratories deliver fast, accurate, reliable results to healthcare professionals, patients and researchers developing the long-term, sustainable management of this disease.”
The test can identify both IgG and IgM antibodies. IgM typically shows up early in the immune response, but the levels quickly drop; IgG antibodies increase more slowly after an infection, but generally stick around longer.
In some cases, it can take 10 to 11 days for an individual’s immune system to attack the virus and produce the antibodies. This is why the antibody tests aren’t used to diagnose patients with COVID-19 that have shown symptoms within the last two or three days.
On April 3, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first blood test for antibodies against COVID-19. That was by Research Triangle Park, North Carolina-based Cellex. About the same time, Mayo Clinic developed its own antibody test and began offering it on April 6.
Stanford Medicine researchers joined the list of organizations that have developed an antibody test, which was launched April 6 at Stanford Health Care. It is different from an externally developed test Stanford utilized for a prevalence study during a community screening event.
https://www.biospace.com/article/fda-grants-ortho-s-covid-19-antibody-test-emergency-use-authorization/

Treatment for Head Lice Could be Effective Against COVID-19

A drug used to treat head lice in humans and parasites in animals has demonstrated efficacy against COVID-19 in laboratory tests, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is already warning people to not attempt to self-medicate with the drug to treat the novel coronavirus.
A recent research article from Monash University in Australia published in Science Direct showed that in a laboratory setting, the use of ivermectin, a decades-old drug approved to treat head lice infections as well as the treatment of some parasitic worms, inhibited the SARS-CoV-2 within 24 to 48 hours of treatment. While COVID-19 is not a parasitic disease, the laboratory tests showed that the drug targets the disease like one. The preclinical data showed that ivermectin prevented the virus’ RNA from replicating. Monash’s Kylie Wagstaff, who led the study, said the mechanism by which Ivermectin works on the virus is not known; but likely works by “dampening down” the host cells’ ability to clear it, Laboratory Equipment reported. The researchers said the lice treatment has also shown some promise in other viruses, including dengue, HIV and Zika.
“Taken together these results demonstrate that ivermectin has antiviral action against the SARS-CoV-2 clinical isolate in vitro, with a single dose able to control viral replication within 24-48 h in our system,” the researchers said.
The question now is whether or not ivermectin will work in the clinic. The research team will now look to advance the study into human trials against COVID-19. The Monash team said the next step will be to examine multiple addition dosing regimens that mimics the current approved usage of ivermectin in humans.
Ivermectin was recently involved in a Phase III clinical study in Thailand against Dengue. The study found that the drug was safe but showed no real efficacy against the virus, the Monash team noted in their abstract.
“However, the investigators noted that an improved dosing regimen might be developed, based on pharmacokinetic data. Although DENV is clearly very different to SARS-CoV-2, this trial design should inform future work going forward. Altogether the current report, combined with a known-safety profile, demonstrates that ivermectin is worthy of further consideration as a possible SARS-CoV-2 antiviral,” they said.
In addition to its approved uses in humans, the FDA has also approved ivermectin in animals for the prevention of heartworm disease in some small animal species, and for the treatment of certain internal and external parasites in various animal species.  The FDA warned that people should never take medications that were intended for animal use, as the drug was evaluated for the species for which it was approved.
“Using these products in humans could cause serious harm,” the FDA said.
After reports of chloroquine showed some anecdotal efficacy in some COVID-19 patients, a man died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, which is found in fish tank cleaning products, as a preventive against the virus.

https://www.biospace.com/article/a-drug-for-lice-and-parasites-in-animals-shows-promise-against-covid-19-in-lab-tests/

Inside the Push to Redeploy Workers Quickly

As the pandemic began knocking out swaths of the economy last month, CVS Health Corp.’s chief recruiter, Jeff Lackey, conferred with his contacts at companies that would suffer some of the biggest blows — airlines, hotel companies and retailers.
His message: I want your people.
CVS — where Mr. Lackey heads up talent acquisition — is now taking on the most ambitious hiring drive in its history. To recruit the 50,000 staffers it needs to meet a coronavirus-fueled surge in business, it is partnering with Gap Inc., Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and dozens of other companies to employ their laid-off workers. More than 900,000 people have applied for CVS jobs in just the last few weeks, including roles stocking warehouses and stores, answering phones at call centers or stepping in for CVS staff who end up sick or quarantined.
Across the economy, thousands of workers are being redeployed in one of the fastest labor shifts in postwar history. As the coronavirus reshapes consumer needs and behaviors overnight, some workers are jumping into new roles within their companies. Others are being recruited by new employers through collaborations unthinkable in the intensely competitive labor market that existed just a couple of months ago.
“I’m grateful for the spirit of the partnerships,” Mr. Lackey said. “I tell people, we only have one enemy right now, and it’s the coronavirus.”
The efforts amount to a human-resources challenge for companies moving people around or hiring new employees. They are racing to assess people’s skills and train them for new roles, all at warp speed for what is often a slow-moving bureaucracy within companies.
To pull off the recruiting effort, CVS created dedicated hiring websites for employees at many partner companies and shortened the hiring process to as little as a day or two. The company was flooded with 500% the volume of applications its recruiting websites normally receive. The surge overloaded the system for a few days.
Gap Inc., which recently furloughed 80,000 workers because of store closures, is encouraging those employees to take temporary part-time jobs, including at CVS and a handful of other companies it is collaborating with. Meghan Kelly, head of global talent acquisition, said her team developed a “SWAT team approach” as Gap mapped out the furlough plan. “One stream of work we looked at was, what are the top tier of retailers that are hiring that would potentially be a fit for our associates,” she said.
Though it is uncertain when companies will return to business as usual, Ms. Kelly and other executives say they hope most furloughed employees who have been redeployed elsewhere will return to their original jobs.
Similar collaborations are popping up around the world. Supermarket chain Kroger Co. created an exchange to bring on workers furloughed or laid off from food-service and hospitality companies such as Sodexo, Sysco Corp. and Marriott International. In Germany, grocers Aldi Sud and Aldi Nord signed an agreement with McDonald’s Corp., allowing the burger chain to refer employees for temporary roles at their stores.
A group of major companies including Accenture PLC, Walmart Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. are rolling out another exchange this week that would let those in urgent need of workers tap laid-off or furloughed employees at other participating businesses. Consulting company Mercer LLC, a unit of Marsh & McLennan, is launching a similar initiative.
For some redeployed workers, new roles come with higher risks and more anxieties because many of those jobs involve closer proximity to consumers. Others say they find satisfaction in taking on an essential or other in-demand job amid the pandemic.
At Toronto-based TD Bank, more than 2,000 employees have switched to new jobs temporarily, mostly handling the surge in calls from customers looking for financial relief, such as deferrals of mortgage or credit-card payments, and from the bank’s own employees seeking help for Covid-related concerns, said Melanie Burns, the bank’s senior vice president of talent. In its U.S. operations, the bank moved 450 people from units like automobile finance, where they were mostly processing loan applications, to critical services, such as front-line call-center roles.
Lisa Haasz, a TD Bank human-resources manager, used to spend her days creating staffing plans and career-development programs. She raised her hand in mid-March when the company asked for workers to staff the overloaded human-resources helpline.
The next day, she did a one-hour virtual training session. A few days later, she was taking calls from bank employees seeking guidance because they had been exposed to someone with the virus, or were feeling sick and needed information about HR policies.
“It can be exhausting,” said Ms. Haasz, age 51, who lives in Elkins Park, Pa. “I’m working nights, I’m working weekends, it’s not what I’m used to.” But helping relieve the burden on the staffers who do this work full-time feels good, she said.
After telecom giant Verizon Communications Inc. closed about 70% of its corporate-owned retail locations in March, many store employees had no place to work, said Christy Pambianchi, Verizon’s chief human resources officer. So thousands of hourly staffers now take at-home customer service and sales roles, she said. The company is also encouraging other employees with idle time to complete needed industry certifications or training while they work remotely.
Transitioning people has required a rapid retraining effort. Verizon’s learning and development team has had to quickly develop new virtual training programs.
To reduce training time, businesses are hiring from industries where skills already overlap. Dave Phinney, owner of distillery Savage and Cooke in Vallejo, Calif., stopped producing liquor a few weeks ago and now makes 15,000 gallons of hand sanitizer a week. For that work, he has hired 20 or so former bartenders, wine buyers and waiters to fill plastic jugs with sanitizer and affix caps and labels, and he says he may hire up to 30 more. He pays them $22 to $25 per hour.
“We had a lot of people wanting to volunteer, and it was an odd business decision to say, ‘We’d prefer to pay and put people to work,'” he said.
https://www.marketscreener.com/CVS-HEALTH-CORPORATION-12230/news/Inside-the-Push-to-Redeploy-Workers-Quickly-30413471/