Apple Data: Shelter-In-Place Ending, Whether Governments Want It To Or Not

Bye-bye shelter-in-place. Hello re-opening.
Apple’s Mobility Trends report shows that traffic in the US and other countries like Germany has pretty much doubled in the past three weeks. It had been down up to 72%. And location data provider Foursquare says that gas and fast food visits are back to pre-COVID-19 levels in the American Midwest.

Screenshot of Apple’s mapping data showing a resurgence in traffic

John Koetsier

Rural areas are following the same pattern.
“Gas station traffic has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in the Midwest, and in rural areas throughout the country,” Foursquare said yesterday in a blog post. “Foot traffic to quick service restaurants (QSRs) has risen over the past several weeks.”
Whether governments, medical professionals, and scientists want it to or not, people seem tired of the shutdown and eager to get back to some semblance of normal life.
Another sign of the impending return to normal?

Grocery store visits are down to normal levels, after being 30-40% higher than normal in late March as people tried to stock up for a long shutdown.

Grocery store visits are returning to normal

Foursquare

While the Apple data is measured by people searching Apple Maps for directions, the Foursquare data is captured by people actually visiting locations. 13 million Americans have granted the company permission to capture their data and use it in privacy-safe ways.
While more people are going more places, it hasn’t impacted a number of hard-hit industries just yet.:

• Gyms: still down 65-69%
• Clothing stores: still down 72%
• Furniture stores: still down 56-60%
• Movie theaters: still down 75%

Nail salons, on the other hand, are “only” down 38-42%, and hotels in the Midwest are down just 49%, compared to a 63-70% decline in other regions.
Interestingly, as Apple’s data from Canada shows, while driving and walking are edging back up to normal levels, people are avoiding transit, which is still down 79% from pre-Coronavirus levels. Driving by yourself is safe, apparently, but sitting in a bus or on a train with hundreds of others is not.

Apple Maps routing directions data for Canada

John Koetsier

“People are feeling the itch to get back to the real world,” Foursquare says. “As officials begin the process of relaxing some business restrictions, we’re starting to see upticks in foot traffic to various places. This is true across regions, regardless of state-specific policies.”

New cases of COVID-19 by day in the US, according to Coronavirus.app.

John Koetsier

COVID-19 cases seem to have started to level off in the US, but there are still 1.1 million total cases, with 65,034 deaths. There are currently almost 900,000 active cases. The question is: as states start to open up, and as people start to decide they’re done with quarantine and shelter-in-place policies, will that go up?

Most likely yes, unless we adopt measures that countries like Taiwan have perfected: masks, social distancing, and contact tracing of the infected. That’s enabled Taiwan to limit the spread of Coronavirus and save lives.
Without them, an attempt to reach herd immunity could result in many more deaths.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/#125daff56fb5

Economic possibility range ‘extraordinarily wide’: Buffett at AM

“It doesn’t look like an annual meeting and it doesn’t feel like an annual meeting,” Warren Buffett starts off Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) (NYSE:BRK.A) annual meeting from an empty arena in Omaha.

As for the coronavirus’s effect on the economy, the range of possibilities is still “extraordinarily wide,” Buffett said, but he’s optimistic that the U.S. will overcome it.

“In 2008-2009, our economic train went off the track due to weaknesses in the system, the banks… this time we have pulled the train off the tracks and put it on the siding,” Buffett said.

“I remain convinced that nothing basically can stop America. We have faced tough problems before — the American miracle, the American magic has always prevailed and it will do so again.”

He gives a history lesson on how the U.S. has managed to overcome such disruptions as the Civil War and the Depression.

Update at 5:40 PM ET: His conclusion — “Never bet against America. In my view that’s as true today as it was in 1789.”

Still, he said, “We still  have a long way to go in creating an even wealthier and more equitable society.”

5:50 PM ET: He emphasizes that nobody knows what’s going to happen in the markets tomorrow or next year, so “you can bet on America, but you have to be careful on how you bet.”

The meat of the annual meeting will likely come during the question session after the meeting’s formal business concludes.

Watch live webcast.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567986-range-of-economic-possibilities-is-extraordinarily-wide-buffett-annual-meeting

WHO wants invite to China’s probe into virus origins

The World Health Organization said Friday it hoped China would invite it to take part in its investigations into the animal origins of the novel coronavirus.

“WHO would be keen to work with international partners and at the invitation of the Chinese government to participate in investigation around the animal origins,” WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic told AFP in an email.
He said the UN health agency understood there were a number of investigations under way in China “to better understand the source of the outbreak”, but added that “WHO is not currently involved in the studies in China.”
Scientists believe the killer virus jumped from animals to humans, emerging in China late last year, possibly from a market in Wuhan selling exotic animals for meat.
But US President Donald Trump has fuelled speculation and rumours—generally rejected by experts—that the virus may have emerged in a top-secret Chinese lab.
WHO has also faced scathing criticism from Trump, who earlier this month suspended Washington’s funding after accusing the WHO of downplaying the seriousness of the outbreak and of kowtowing to China.
The UN health agency chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus did travel with a team to China in late January, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to learn more about the response.
This paved the way, Tedros explained earlier this week, for an international team of scientists to travel there in February to investigate the situation, including experts from China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Nigeria, the Russian Federation, Singapore and the United States of America.
But as investigations into the origins of the virus have picked up pace in China, the WHO has not been involved.
The ongoing investigations are believed to be looking at “human cases with symptom onset in and around Wuhan in late 2019, environmental sampling from markets and farms in areas where the first human cases were identified, and detailed records on the source and type of wildlife species and farmed animals sold in these markets,” Jasarevic said.
He stressed that the results from the virus origin studies were “essential to preventing further zoonotic introductions of the virus that causes COVID-19 into the human population.”
“WHO continues to collaborate with animal health and human health experts, countries and other partners to identify gaps and research priorities for the control of COVID-19, including the eventual identification of the source of the virus in China,” he said.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-china-probe-virus.html

RedHill’s CEO On Biopharma’s ‘Two Shots On Goal’ For Coronavirus Drug

REDHILL BIOPHAR/S ADR RDHL 6.69%, known primarily as a biopharmaceutical company focused on gastrointestinal diseases, is joining the race to develop coronavirus treatments with two pipeline drugs it believes can help treat the disease that’s triggered a pandemic.
CEO Dror Ben-Asher spoke with Benzinga about opaganib, for which the company filed an Investigational New Drug Application with the FDA in April; and RHB-107, on which RedHill is partnering with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in an evaluation for COVID-19.
Benzinga: What is current stage of opaganib and RHB-107? What type of results have they shown?
Ben-Asher: RedHill has been developing opaganib primarily for oncology for the past several years and we have tested it in well over 100 patients. When coronavirus began to spread rapidly, we decided that opaganib might apply to coronavirus. The drug is anti-inflammatory, it has antiviral properties and it acts on the same issues that moderate to severe patients of coronavirus are struggling with.
Opaganib was first opened as a compassionate use program in Israel, which means physicians can treat patients in designated hospitals using opaganib outside clinical studies. Thus far, we have results from five patients. They are doing very well in terms of overall improvement, including reduction in inflammation and a decrease in oxygenation requirement.
Some patients left the hospital while others left the ICU. It’s a small sample size, but we like what we are seeing.
We recently announced that RedHill signed an agreement with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to evaluate RHB-107 for coronavirus. It’s a priority project and thus far RHB-107 has been tested in over 300 patients.
Both Opaganib and RHB-107 are novel molecules that have plenty of data. We are pursuing both of them in the fight against coronavirus. There are very few companies out there that have ‘two shots on goal’ for a coronavirus drug.

Benzinga: Can you give a brief history of RedHill’s relationship with FDA? What other trials has RedHill been involved in?
Ben-Asher: RedHill has been meeting with the FDA numerous times over the last 10 years. We successfully developed and brought to the market a drug Talicia with FDA approval. Talicia was designed to treat an infection, Helicobacter pylori. Over 100 million Americans are infected with Helibobacter pylori, with some parts of the world population being over 50% infected.
In addition, we are already promoting three products commercially in the USA with 100 sales representatives in North Carolina. The largest of the three is Movantik, which we acquired in the beginning of April from AstraZeneca plc AZN 0.75%.
We have also filed a new application to start a clinical study in the U.S. for opaganib as a coronavirus drug, and we expect an FDA response very soon.
Benzinga: Can the data from Israel be used in seeking opaganib approval in the U.S.?
Ben-Asher: The data in Israel is not considered clinical study data because it’s compassionate use. Opaganib is used to help patients in need based on the physician’s discretion. When a physician has no better alternative, they can choose to treat a patient with opaganib.
We are pursuing clinical studies in the U.S., and upon approval from the FDA, we will move forward with a controlled study. If the data is the same in the controlled study as it is in the compassionate use in Israel, then we will have a discussion with the FDA for getting it approved.
Benzinga: What would be a timeline for the drug in the U.S.?
Ben-Asher: It’s too early to tell, but the magnitude and urgency of getting the first drug approved for coronavirus is very significant. Although, the FDA is mandated to ensure that drugs are safe and effective through the requires clinical studies in a controlled setting.
The treatment for coronavirus is really short; it’s only a matter of weeks. The coronavirus does not last long, [and] therefore the studies are not expected to take long. It’s not expected to be difficult to recruit patients either, because the need for a new treatment is really significant.
Benzinga: How prepared is the company to scale up production of opaganib if approved in the U.S.?
Ben-Asher: RedHill has been working hard toward boosting production to a large scale. We secured a manufacturer and we can scale up manufacturing, including getting additional manufacturers, as soon as the demand for opaganib is needed.
https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/20/05/15874371/redhills-ceo-on-biopharmas-two-shots-on-goal-for-coronavirus-drug

NASA will license its FDA-approved ventilator to manufacturers for free

A new high-pressure ventilator developed by NASA engineers and designed to treat COVID-19 has received FDA approval via a fast-tracked emergency use authorization. Now, NASA is looking for a medical industry partner to manufacture the device. It will license the tech on a royalty-free basis during the pandemic.
Engineers from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed VITAL (Ventilator Intervention Technology Accessible Locally) in just 37 days. It has been tested successfully on a “high fidelity human patient simulator” at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

“Now that we have a design, we’re working to pass the baton to the medical community, and ultimately patients, as quickly as possible,” said Fred Farina, chief innovation and corporate partnerships officer at Caltech.

The design offers a few key benefits. NASA says it can be built faster and maintained more easily than traditional ventilators. It is composed of fewer parts, which are currently available through existing supply chains, and it can be modified for use in field hospitals like the ones being set up in convention centers. The device is built to last three to four months, so it won’t replace the current hospital ventilators, but it could fill critical shortages.
JPL doesn’t typically design medical equipment, but in a video, several engineers expressed a desire to use their skills to help address the COVID-19 pandemic. This is part of a growing trend of technologists trying to meet the demand for ventilators. We’ve seen right-to-repair campaigns, as well as ventilators made with gaming PC cases and Tesla parts. We’ve also learned, though, that while making ventilators is relatively easy, pivoting manufacturing to do so is more difficult.
“This ventilator is one of countless examples of how taxpayer investments in space exploration — the skills, expertise and knowledge collected over decades of pushing boundaries and achieving firsts for humanity — translate into advancements that improve life on Earth,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said in a statement.
https://www.engadget.com/nasa-jpl-ventilator-fda-approval-221346849.html

NY ‘quietly’ conducting coronavirus tests at grocery stores

Gov. Cuomo has quietly begun recruiting grocery stores in a bid to widen the state’s coronavirus testing program, The Post has learned.
Tests for the deadly bug — a key tool for pinpointing infection hotspots as officials look to ease lockdowns — are now being administered at an undisclosed number of supermarkets statewide as officials look to reach a larger swath of the Empire State’s population, officials confirmed.
Among those participating are several Fine Fare supermarkets in the Bronx and Brooklyn, each of which has administered upwards of 200 antibody tests a day inside the stores, said Rudy Fuertes, president of Fteley Food Corp., which operates 10 Fine Fare locations in the Big Apple.
The supermarket tests have been conducted quietly, with no announcement by the governor’s office, Fuertes told The Post.
“They don’t tell anyone they are doing that — otherwise we’d have lines through the kazoo,” said Fuertes, who says he tested positive for the virus but had no symptoms.
The antibody tests — first launched last month at hospitals for first responders, health care workers and hospital patients — started rolling out at Big Apple urgent-care clinics earlier this week. The governor has likewise cut red tape to begin testing at more than 5,000 independent drugstores statewide this weekend.
In the meantime, however, the state’s Department of Health also has been focusing on a random sampling of the population: people who shop and work at supermarkets.
State health workers are setting up shop at long tables inside the stores, administering tests that draw blood from five fingers. The results are sent directly to participants via e-mail or a phone call.
Other supermarkets across the state are also participating in the program, though a health official declined to identify those companies or the specific stores.
“The governor has talked about testing as one of the keys to reopening the state,” a department of health official said. “The supermarkets are the random testing piece” of this effort.
State officials said they have tested some 8,000 people over the past two weeks, including 3,000 random samples from the general population.
Fine Fare’s Fuertes believes about 30 percent of his employees tested positive for coronavirus based on the fact that nearly 100 percent of his managers in each store tested positive.
His stores in the Bronx at 1221 Fteley Avenue and at 459 E. 149th St. were testing sites last week. Testing sites also were set up at the Key Food in Williamsburg this week, also owned by Fteley.
Cuomo said this week that nearly a quarter of New York City residents have had coronavirus. Infection rates in Westchester and Rockland counties have run at 15.1 percent as of this week. Long Island had a 14.4 percent infection rate. Outside of those regions, the state average is 3.2 percent, officials said.
“The tests are bringing hope to our community,” Fuertes said.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/01/new-york-conducting-coronavirus-tests-at-grocery-stores/

COVID-19 outpatient visits fall for 2nd week: 4 CDC findings

The amount of COVID-19 related visits to outpatient facilities and emergency departments decreased nationally in the week ending April 25, but still remained elevated in the Northeast and Northwest, according to the CDC’s weekly COVIDView report.
Four things to know:
1. The national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, decreased in public health and commercial laboratories, and remained stable in clinical labs. Nationwide, labs have confirmed 702,814 positive specimens since March 1.
2. The percentage of U.S. deaths attributed to flu, pneumonia or COVID-19 was 14.6 percent for the week ending April 25, down from 23.6 percent a week prior. This percentage still falls far above the epidemic threshold of 6.8 percent and may change as additional death certificates are processed, the CDC noted.
3. The cumulative hospitalization rate for all age groups increased to 40.4 hospitalizations per 100,000 population.
4. The amount of outpatient and emergency department visits for COVID-19 symptoms decreased and fell below baseline for the second consecutive week. While the decrease may be due to a drop in COVID-19 activity, it may also be fueled by less respiratory illness overall due to widespread social distancing efforts and changes in how people access healthcare.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/covid-19-outpatient-visits-fall-for-2nd-week-4-cdc-findings.html