China's population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy.
The drop, the worst since China's Great Famine of 1961, also lends weight to predictions that India will become the world's most populous nation in this year.
China's population dropped by roughly 850,000 to 1.41175 billion at the end of 2022, the country's National Bureau of Statistics said.
Last year's birth rate was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record.
China also logged its highest death rate since 1974, registering 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people compared with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021.
Long-term, U.N. experts see China's population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019.
That's caused domestic demographers to lament that China will get old before it gets rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases to take care of a rapidly aging population.
Much of the demographic downturn is the result of China's one-child policy that it imposed between 1980 and 2015 as well as sky-high education costs that have put many Chinese off having more than one child or even having any at all.
China's stringent zero-COVID policies that were in place for three years have caused further damage to the country's bleak demographic outlook, population experts have said.
Although local governments have since 2021 rolled out measures to encourage people to have more babies, including tax deductions, longer maternity leave and housing subsidies, the steps are not expected to arrest the long-term trend.
Online searches for baby strollers on China's Baidu search engine dropped 17% in 2022 and are down 41% since 2018, while searches for baby bottles are down more than a third since 2018. In contrast, searches for elderly care homes surged eight-fold last year.
The reverse is playing out in India, where Google Trends shows a 15% year-on-year increase in searches for baby bottles in 2022, while searches for cribs rose almost five-fold.
China's economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter due to stringent COVID curbs, dragging down 2022 growth to one of its worst in nearly half a century and raising pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus this year.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.9% in October-December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday, slower than the third-quarter's 3.9% pace. The rate still exceeded the second quarter's 0.4% expansion and market expectations of a 1.8% gain.
On a quarterly basis, GDP came in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September.
Beijing last month abruptly lifted its strict anti-virus measures that had severely restrained economic activity in 2022, but the relaxation has also led to a sharp rise in COVID cases that economists say might hamper near term growth.
For 2022, GDP expanded 3.0%, badly missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021. Excluding the 2.2% expansion after the initial COVID hit in 2020, it's the worst showing since 1976 - the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.
Growth is likely to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, as Chinese leaders move to tackle some key drags on growth - the "zero-COVID" policy and a severe property sector downturn, according to a Reuters poll. Most economists expect growth to pick up from the second quarter.
Beijing's abrupt lifting of COVID curbs last month has prompted analysts' upgrades of its economic outlook and a jump in Chinese financial markets, but businesses have struggled with surging infections, suggesting a bumpy recovery in the near term.
Factory output grew 1.3% in December from a year earlier, slowing from a 2.2% rise in November, while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, shrank 1.8% last month, extending November's 5.9% drop.
Economists at Morgan Stanley expect an earlier and stronger growth recovery from the first quarter, lifting 2023 GDP growth to 5.7%.
"We believe the market is still under-appreciating the far-reaching ramifications of reopening and the possibility that a decent cyclical recovery can occur despite lingering structural headwinds," they said in a note.
Chinese leaders have pledged to prioritise consumption expansion to support domestic demand this year, at a time when local exporters struggle in the wake of global recession risks.
At an agenda-setting meeting in December, top leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy support to ensure key targets are hit.
China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.
The central bank is expected to steadily ease policy this year, pumping out more liquidity and lowering funding costs for businesses, while local governments are likely to issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects.
BioMed X, an independent German biomedical research institute, announced today the extension of its ongoing research collaboration with AbbVie. This marks the launch of the first BioMed X Institute in the US, to be located in New Haven, Connecticut. Following a first joint research project on Alzheimer's disease at the BioMed X Institute in Heidelberg, Germany, the new US-based research collaboration will focus on immunology and tissue engineering.
"Extending our successful partnership with AbbVie to our new site in the US is a big milestone for our institute," said Christian Tidona, Founder and Managing Director of BioMed X. "We are grateful to be able to bring our unique innovation model to New Haven and Yale University, one of the top places in the world for groundbreaking discoveries in biomedical research," added Tidona.
The new BioMed X Institute will be managed by Mark Johnston, an experienced biotech entrepreneur and business leader who recently joined the BioMed X family. "My role is to synergize the BioMed X know-how with the invaluable local resources in New Haven to add a new dimension to the global BioMed X network," explained Johnston. Neighboring the historic campus of Yale University, the US branch of BioMed X will be embedded in the New Haven life sciences hub. "Yale is devoted to academic leadership as well as global strategic partnerships to foster innovation and an entrepreneurial spirit. We welcome BioMed X to our biosciences community and appreciate the opportunities this alliance ushers in, including cooperation with international industry partners and networking with the European biotech ecosystem," said Josh Geballe, Managing Director at Yale Ventures.
Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) could cut the risk of Alzheimer’s in some women at elevated risk of the disease, according to researchers in the UK.
The study by a team at the Universities of East Anglia and Edinburgh shows that HRT use is associated with better memory, cognition, and larger brain volumes in later life among women carrying the APOE4 gene, a well-established risk factor for Alzheimer’s.
The finding comes against a backdrop of mixed results in epidemiological studies of HRT in Alzheimer’s, with some pointing to lower rates of cognitive decline, some finding a possible increase in dementia risk, and others inconclusive either way.
Almost two thirds of Alzheimer’s patients in the UK are women, and quarter of them are carriers of APOE4, according to lead researcher Professor Anne-Marie Minihane, so the finding could have important public health consequences, particularly as there are limited therapeutic options for people with dementia.
“In addition to living longer, the reason behind the higher female prevalence is thought to be related to the effects of menopause and the impact of the APOE4 genetic risk factor being greater in women,” said Professor Minihane.
The study found that HRT was most effective when introduced early in menopause – during perimenopause, when changes to the menstrual cycle first become apparent and symptoms start to appear.
The research team studied data from 1,178 women participating in the European Prevention of Alzheimer’s Dementia (EPAD) initiative, set up to study people aged over 50 on the journey from being ‘brain healthy’ to a diagnosis of dementia in some cases. Their work specifically focused on the effect of HRT on women with the APOE4 genotype.
“Our research looked at associations with cognition and brain volumes using MRI scans,” noted Professor Minihane. “We did not look at dementia cases, but cognitive performance and lower brain volumes are predictive of future dementia risk.”
The finding is preliminary, according to the researchers, but could be significant if confirmed in an interventional study, in which HRT would be prospectively tested against a control group of APOE4-positive subjects, over several years, to see if it can reduce cognitive decline.
The differences observed in the present study could “equate to a brain age that is several years younger,” according to the scientists.
“This important finding from the EPAD Cohort highlights the need to challenge many assumptions about early Alzheimer’s disease and its treatment, especially when considering women’s brain health,” commented Professor Craig Ritchie, from the University of Edinburgh.
“An effect on both cognition and brain changes on MRI supports the notion that HRT has tangible benefit, [but] these initial findings need replication, however, in other populations,” he added.
The research is published in the journal Alzheimer’s Research and Therapy.
Mayor Eric Adams is turning up the heat on Gov. Kathy Hochul to do something to help tackle New York City’s migrant crisis — promoting a plan to have upstate communitiestake in a fraction of the now 40,000-plus migrantsthat have flooded the Big Apple.
Less than a week after Hochul pointedly ignored the ongoing influx of migrants during her State of the State address, Adams exclusively told The Post that spreading them around could provide a shot in the arm to “struggling” cities upstate.
“Some of our cities are suffering. They’re losing populations,” Adams said during a Sunday night phone interview from El Paso, Texas.
“But if this is done, is done effectively, and the dollars come in to support those who are helping migrants and asylum seekers to incentivize this help, we believe we can … help those cities that are struggling and at the same time, give people a good start in this country.”
In his Friday announcement, Adams said the city was “seeing more people arrive than we have ever seen,” including a record “835 asylum seekers arriving on one single day alone” last week.
Mayor Eric Adams is putting pressure on Gov. Kathy Hochul to relocate some of the migrants in New York City to upstate New York communities.William Farrington
City Hall said Monday that its latest official tally showed 40,200 migrants had arrived since the spring, with 26,900 housed in taxpayer-funded emergency shelters as of Sunday.
On Tuesday, Hochul made no mention of the city’s spiraling migrant crisis while laying out her agenda for nearly 50 minutes and later defended the omission by saying the issue wasn’t important outside the Big Apple.
“In my State of the State, there’s hundreds of other proposals for talking about. I was focusing on my key signature areas that have broad, statewide interest — housing, mental health challenges, the child care and the minimum wage,” she said Wednesday.
US Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) first floated the notion of sending some of the city’s migrants upstate in September as a way for struggling communities to qualify for additional federal funding through the Community Development Block Grant program.
Gillibrand discussed the proposal with Adams during a closed-door meeting in Washington, DC, and also contacted Hochul’s office to seek her support, sources told The Post at the time.
City Hall said it was open to the idea but Hochul refused to address it for nearly a month, at which point she merely kicked the can down the road. saying, “I think the question is, how many more times these people have to be shuffled around.”
“When there becomes a legal path and work papers and a different dynamic, certainly there’ll be a lot of places that will want to embrace this community,” she said.
Hochul didn’t mention the migrant crisis during her State of the Speech address this month.Kevin C. Downs for NY Post
Migrants are prohibited from working in the US for at least six months after applying for asylum, although Adams and other pols have called for shortening the waiting period for work permits.
Gillibrand’s office didn’t return a request for comment Monday.
But city Councilman Robert Holden (D-Queens) accused Hochul of being “asleep at the wheel on the migrant issue.”
“She’s got to wake up and she’s not,” he said. “My Democratic colleagues haven’t stepped up – in the city and state – they haven’t come up with any demands on the migrant crisis.”
Holden also said Hochul “should be visiting Washington along with other governors and forcing [President] Biden to come up with some meaningful solution. Not just rhetoric, actual plans!”
Adams said relocating migrants upstate could help “struggling” cities that have seen their populations decline.Matthew McDermottAccording to City Hall, 40,200 migrants have arrived since last spring.Matthew McDermott
Council Minority Leader Joe Borelli (R-Staten Island) said that “it will be tough for Hochul to open up a new front on migrants as she’s already fighting the left of her party” over her nomination of Appellate Division Justice Hector LaSalle to be the next chief judge of the Court of Appeals.
Adams’ comments come a week after he submitted a “emergency mutual aid request” to the state to provide housing for 500 migrants.Matthew McDermott
“The problem expanded statewide, and the waiter is about to hand her the bill whether she offers to pay or not,” he said.
Borelli also said that as the “Democratic governor of a large state,” Hochul “should be able to leverage the White House for support” as Adams seeks $1 billion in emergency federal aid for the migrant crisis.
City Hall said Monday that it hadn’t yet heard whether Hochul would grant Adams’ desperate plea to take some of the migrants off his hands.
A Hochul spokesman declined to comment beyond remarks the governor made Sunday, when she told reporters she’d spoken to Adams earlier in the day.
“I told the mayor we will be continuing to help him. We’ve been helping him for many months and will continue to give him support,” she said.
A San Francisco panel studying reparations has proposed a one-time payment of $5 million to each black resident of the city deemed eligible as recompense for the “decades of harm they have experienced,” according to a report on Monday.
“A lump sum payment would compensate the affected population … and will redress the economic and opportunity losses that Black San Franciscans have endured, collectively, as the result of both intentional decisions and unintended harms perpetuated by City policy,” the San Francisco African American Reparations Advisory Committee said in a draft report issued last month, Fox News Digital reported.
The committee also proposed wiping out all debts associated with educational, personal, credit card and payday loans for black households.
The 15-member panel was established by San Francisco supervisors in May 2021. A separate task force created by California’s legislature is also studying reparations.
The city group’s report says: “Reparation must be adequate, effective, prompt, and should be proportional to the gravity of the violations and the harm suffered.”
People applaud at a meeting of the reparations task force in San Francisco.AP
It added that members of the black community demand reparations “not to remedy enslavement” but to “address the public policies explicitly created to subjugate Black people in San Francisco by upholding and expanding the intent and legacy of chattel slavery.”
The report notes that while neither California nor San Francisco “formally adopted the institution of chattel slavery,” other aspects of segregation like white supremacy and “systematic repression” found in the legal system, “social codes” and “extralegal actions” were designed to exclude blacks.
To be initially eligible, applicants must be 18 and show they have identified as black or African American on public documents for at least 10 years.
The panel has proposed a $5M payment to each eligible resident.AFP via Getty Images
They must also prove that they meet two out of eight additional standards — including being born in or having migrated to San Francisco between 1940 and 1996, and having proof of residency for at least 13 years, being personally or a direct descendant or someone jailed in the “failed War on Drugs,” or being a descendant of someone enslaved before 1865.
The committee will make its recommendations to the city in June, and Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin told the San Francisco Chronicle he hopes they will be approved.
“There are so many efforts that result in incredible reports that just end up gathering dust on a shelf,” Peskin said. “We cannot let this be one of them.”
Mayor London Breed has predicted a multi-million-dollar budget shortfall over the next two years.Anadolu Agency via Getty Images The report does not include any estimates on the overall cost of the reparations.
But San Francisco is already reeling from a lower-than-expected property tax intake because of the coronavirus pandemic and Mayor London Breed’s office is predicting a budget shortfall of roughly $728 million over the next two years, The Real Deal reported.
A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. A batch of top-tier economic data from China, including fourth quarter GDP growth, will grab the spotlight in Asia on Tuesday, and the numbers are not expected to be pretty.
This does not necessarily mean investor sentiment and risky assets will automatically weaken - investors may consider these figures to be backward-looking, or bet that they will spur growth-friendly stimulus and policies from Beijing.
Either way, it does look like Q4 GDP, as well as December retail sales, investment and industrial production data will confirm the world's second-largest economy ended last year on an extremely weak footing.
To varying degrees, all are expected to be softer than the previous measures. GDP is expected to contract 0.8% from Q3, giving annual growth of just 1.8% in the October-December period. Retail sales are expected to have fallen 8.6%.
Economists polled by Reuters reckon China's economy grew 2.8% last year overall, and will rebound to 4.9% this year.
The transition away from the stringent zero-COVID policy of the last couple of years will be rocky in the near term as infections surge. Authorities said on Saturday nearly 60,000 people with COVID died in hospitals between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12.
Analysts at UBS have tried to quantify the impact China's reopening has had on markets as investors price in the coming recovery. They reckon it accounts for about half of the 70% of the recent market rally that can be attributed to macro factors.
In other words, it is about 50% to 70% priced in already, they estimate.
House price data on Monday showed the sector continued to weaken into December as new COVID-19 outbreaks hit demand. New home prices fell month-on-month for a fifth month in a row, and year-on-year prices fell for an eighth straight month.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the yuan on Monday posted its biggest fall since late November. Perhaps it was due a breather, having rallied nearly 10% in the three months from early November to a seven-month high.
Meanwhile, the saga at embattled Chinese property developer Evergrande took another twist on Monday when it was confirmed that its auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers had resigned over matters related to the 2021 fiscal year.
Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
- China GDP (Q4), retail sales, industrial output, investment (December)
