Xenon $1B Potential: Anti-Epileptic Candidate's Untapped Value

 Cantor Fitzgerald has initiated coverage on Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc 

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 with an Overweight rating and a price target of $58. 

The analyst writes that the company’s lead candidate, XEN1101, a Kv7.2/3 potassium ion-channel activator, has a de-risked mechanism of action based on the approval of ezogabine, a Kv7.2-7.5 channel activator.

Retigabine or ezogabine is used as an adjunctive treatment for partial epilepsies. The drug was developed by Bausch Health Companies Inc 

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 (formerly Valeant Pharmaceuticals), and GSK Plc 

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The analyst also writes that positive data presented from the Phase 2b X-TOLE study in focal onset seizures (FOS) clinically de-risks XEN1101 while demonstrating an enhanced safety/ adverse event profile relative to its predecessor, ezogabine.

Cantor writes that neither the PoS in FOS nor the potential broader use of XEN1101 within epilepsies or psychiatric disorders is fully valued at current trading levels. It foresees increasing visibility in the next 12 months for all three opportunities. 

Even with modest penetration into the FOS population and an annual pricing assumption of ~$22K, we forecast over $1 billion in probability-adjusted sales within five years of the launch. 

https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/23/04/31995064/unlocking-xenon-pharmaceuticals-1b-potential-analyst-cites-anti-epileptic-candidates-untapped-val

Hospital operators' outlook in focus on Medicaid concerns

 U.S. hospital operators are expected to report strong revenue for the first quarter, while investors will also focus on results for cues on the impact to future earnings following an end to COVID-related insurance protection.

Beginning April 1, states were allowed to begin the process of re-determining if people qualify for Medicaid, the government-backed health insurance plans for low-income people, which was previously not allowed during the pandemic.

"There may be some coverage lapses for people who lose Medicaid coverage that may result in more uninsured patients obtaining care through hospital emergency rooms ... which of course would squeeze margins for caregivers" Morningstar analyst Julie Utterback said.

HCA Healthcare Inc, the largest publicly listed U.S. hospital operator, will report earnings on Friday, followed by earnings for smaller rivals Tenet Healthcare Corp and Universal Health Services Inc next week.

GRAPHIC: HCA margins have inversely tracked staff costs https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akveqndwkvr/nHNrE-hca-margins-have-inversely-tracked-staff-cost.png

THE CONTEXT

HCA said in March that its profit forecast did not factor in an impact from Medicaid re-determination because of too many unknowns.

In the first quarter, analysts expect costs related to spending on temporary nurses and bonuses to retain staff to fall for HCA.

However, analysts have pointed to uncertainty around annual profit at hospital operators as states restart the process of re-determining coverage for Medicaid, which might result in millions of people losing coverage.

GRAPHIC: HCA's inpatient surgeries slide during pandemic https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akveqndadvr/EF85d-hca-s-inpatient-surgeries-slide-during-pandemic.png

FUNDAMENTALS

** 19 analysts, on average, forecast HCA's first-quarter revenue to be $15.27 billion, according to Refinitiv, compared with $14.95 billion that the company reported a year earlier

** 12 analysts, on average, forecast HCA's first-quarter net profit to be $1.13 billion, compared with $1.27 billion last year

WALL STREET SENTIMENT

** Of the 24 analysts covering HCA, 19 rate it "buy" or higher, five rate "hold"

** The median price target for HCA is $288.50, a 5.6% upside to its last closing price

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hospital-operators-outlook-focus-medicaid-142302400.html

Roche Q1 sales decline tempered by swift uptake of new eye drug

 Switzerland's Roche said first-quarter sales dropped 7% on falling demand for its COVID-19 therapies and diagnostics kits, less steep than feared by analysts due to strong revenue growth from a new eye drug.

Quarterly group revenue fell to 15.3 billion Swiss francs ($17.2 billion), the company reported on Wednesday, beating market expectations of 14.8 billion francs.

The company, which does not report earnings for its first and third quarter, reiterated that pandemic-related sales - mainly lab testing, antibody treatment Ronapreve and repurposed arthritis drug Actemra - would drop by 5 billion francs this year.

But quarterly sales of Vabysmo, an injection against a common form of blindness in the elderly that won approval last year, came in at 432 million francs, making it the strongest growth driver in the pharmaceuticals division, Roche said.

CEO Thomas Schinecker, previously Roche's head of diagnostics and promoted to the top job last month, said new drug sales were strong across the board but Vabysmo beat consensus by more than 100 million francs in the quarter.

"We are very happy with the very rapid and significant uptake in the different markets around the world," he said on a media call.

Roche is challenging Bayer and its partner Regeneron's established rival product Eylea, which is used to treat a common age-related degeneration of the macular in the back of the eye.

Vabysmo can be given at longer intervals between injections than the standard Eylea regimen, but Bayer and Regeneron are working on a high-dose version of their shot to offer the same advantage.

Roche said late on Monday that a deeper analysis of clinical trials suggested that a harmful excess of retinal fluid, which is often monitored by an ophthalmologist to track treatment progress, dried faster in patients on Vabysmo than those on a standard Eylea treatment.

Sales and core earnings per share were still expected to decrease at a "low single-digit" percentage in 2023, the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics company added.

https://news.yahoo.com/roche-q1-sales-down-7-051040414.html

GSK stays strong as healthy sales beat expectations

 GSK began 2023 with a quarterly performance that beat analyst expectations and extended a series of positive results following strong sales of its roster of vaccines as well as HIV and respiratory medicines.

It reaffirmed its guidance for 2023, saying it expected adjusted operating profit growth to be higher in the second half, but lower in the first half of the year when expected drug launches will increase costs.

The British drugmaker carved out its consumer health business Haleon last year and has in recent quarters begun to reverse years of underperformance relative to its peers and from largely missing out on the market for COVID-19 vaccines.

Even after stripping out one-time contributions, the underlying revenue and earnings beat are a respectable 3% and 4% respectively, Citi analyst Andrew Baum wrote in a note.

He added there was little material risk to GSK's near-term earnings, although investors are nervous ahead of a trial in California for Zantac, a discontinued heartburn drug that claimants say is linked to cancer.

Some of those fears were quashed in December after a U.S. judge dismissed about 50,000 claims in federal court.

That does not directly affect tens of thousands of similar cases pending in state courts and a trial in July will be the first test of how Zantac cancer claims fare before a jury.

Investors are also concerned about the company's long-term prospects, given the pending loss of patent protection of one of GSK's HIV compounds and setbacks in its marketed oncology portfolio.

To compensate, the company has announced a number of buyout deals, including Bellus Health, Affinivax and Sierra Oncology.

GSK is also relying in part on its potential blockbuster vaccine for RSV, which leads to thousands of hospitalisations and deaths each year.

It anticipates launching the vaccine later this year in the U.S. and Europe, pending regulatory approval, as does rival Pfizer.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gsk-beats-first-quarter-profit-061125544.html

States where your risk of identity theft is high

 Fraud alert.

Identity theft is on the rise — but it’s most common in three Southern states: Louisiana, Georgia and Florida, according to data from the Federal Trade Commission. 

In 2022, more than 500 people for every 100,000 were victims of the crime, with credit card fraud being the most common form of identity theft. This involves scammers using someone’s personal information to steal from a credit card account or to open a new line of credit in the individual’s name. 

Alabama’s largest college city, Tuscaloosa, was the No. 1 metro area in the country for identity fraud, with more than 1,000 victims for every 100,000 residents. 

Baton Rouge, Louisiana, was No. 2, with 947 victims for every 8,347 people, followed by the Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Pompano Beach areas of South Florida with 868 affected for every 53,201 individuals there. 

There were a shocking 441,822 reports of identity theft nationwide last year.

Identity theft is on the rise — but it’s most common in three Southern states: Louisiana, Georgia and Florida, according to data from the Federal Trade Commission. 

FTC

Millennials appeared to be most at risk, with individuals from the ages of 30 to 39 comprising 25% of all US victims, according to the data.

Americans 80 and older reported the least amount of fraud.

After credit card fraud, the second most common category of scams were those involving online shopping and payment accounts, social media and emails, according to the FTC report.

Criminals also found a way to get money through employment, taxes, benefits, loans, utilities and phone calls. 

The top metro areas in the US affected by identity theft.

FTC

The FTC suggests Americans protect themselves from identity theft by keeping paper financial records including Social Security, Medicare cards and other personal documents in a private space.

Those logging into an online account should use a strong password and add multifactor authentication to accounts that offer that option (an extra security measure that requires two or more credentials to log into an account), according to the FTC.

The agency also urges Americans to beware scammers calling, texting or emailing to ask about personal information.

https://nypost.com/2023/04/25/these-are-the-states-where-your-risk-of-identity-theft-is-high/