'Everything' Rallies On First Day Of March After Fed Hints At Next 'QE'

 And ugly data day was brightened up when Fed Governor Waller wrecked the wall of worry.

ISM Manufacturing was a shitshow (in contraction for 15 straight months), Construction spending unexpectedly declined (first MoM drop since Dec 2022), UMich confidence declined (and inflation exp ticked higher) - all of which dragged US Macro surprise index back near neutral...

And although 'bad news is good news', it was Waller's remarks that prompted the market's "everything is awesome" response as he hinted that The Fed would unveil a new QE 'Reverse Twist' for its balance-sheet (buying short-term Treasuries and dumping Agency MBS).

Of course, as we detailed earlier, the timing of Waller's comments are convenient too as shifting The Fed's holdings towards Bills perfectly complement's The Treasury's recently stated expectation that their Bill-share will rise above their prior 20% guideline.

In other words: Treasury is going to issue more bills, and Fed will buy more of them as well.

Waller's comments come as Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan reiterated it’ll likely be appropriate to start slowing the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet.

And Waller's comments come right on cue as The Fed's reverse repo facility saw a simply stunning $128BN of liquidity sucked out of it over the last two days (a 22% drop) across month-end...

Source: Bloomberg

We warned four days ago this was coming...

Leaving the Ides of March in play for a liquidity crisis...

Source: Bloomberg

So - Unleash the dollars...

And just like - everything was higher...

Stocks went vertical, gold soared, Treasury yields plunged (and the yield curve steepened... in a good way), oil ramped up too (and so did crypto, even after the week it had).

Small Caps led the face-ripping melt-up on the week (with Nasdaq's big day today pulling it to a 2% gain on the week). The S&P managed gains on the week (thanks to today's meltup), but The Dow ended the week marginally lower...

NVDA officially closed above $2TN market cap today. For context, in Oct 2022, the company was worth $280BN...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, while the last few months have seen 'Vol Up, Spot Up' in Nasdaq as traders chase the market with levered bets, the last week has seen vols decline as stocks soared (implying less of a FOMO chasefest)...

Source: Bloomberg

But... demand for downside protection is still non-existent as skews test record lows once again...

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were aggressively bid today, led by the short-end (2Y -9bps, 30Y -5bps), dragging all yields lower on the week (again led by the short-end)...

Source: Bloomberg

And that bull-steepened the yield curve...

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto had a giant week with huge inflows to BTC ETFs...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin roared up to just shy of $64,000 this week...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also spiked, all the way above $3500 this week...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled today after Waller but ended the week unch...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared up near end-Dec highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices also spiked today, breaking out to their highest close since Nov 6th...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, are these the vinegar strokes (Google it) of the melt-up-rally-top?

Source: Bloomberg

Will the March FOMC meeting be used to introduce the public to NOT-QE "Reverse Twist", because the first rule of Fed QE-club is you never mention QE.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-rallies-first-day-march-after-fed-hints-next-qe

US Bank Crisis Looms As Deposit Outflows Accelerated Last Week, Loan Volumes Stagnate

 With the imminent expiration of The Fed's bank bailout facility (reminder they were 12-month collateralized term loans), and with The Fed's reverse repo facility see a massive $128BN in liquidity sucked out of it in the last two days, this week's excitement over at NYCB again is sure to have seen some depositors question their decisions (but we won't know about that for a couple of weeks as The Fed needs time to 'manage' the data).

RRP's collision with the x-axis is right on schedule...

And while The Fed's balance sheet continues to contract, we do note that the pace of contraction has slowed significantly this year...

Source: Bloomberg

And at the same time, inflows to money-market funds continued to take total assets to fresh record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

...as banks saw deposits decline $48BN (SA) last week ($86BN in the last 3 weeks)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total deposits fell $74BN in the week ending 2/21 (down $206BN in 2024)...

Source: Bloomberg

And, excluding foreign banks, domestic deposits dropped $46BN SA (Large Banks -$36BN, Small Banks -$10BN), and tumbled $69BN NSA (Large Banks -$62BN, Small Banks -$7BN)

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the ledger, there basically no activity at all in loans from small or large banks. Quite an odd print...

Source: Bloomberg

US equity market cap remains dramatically decoupled from bank reserves at The Fed. The last time it was this decoupled didn't end well...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, as if you needed a reminder after this week's NYCB debacle - despite the rebound off the lows again this week in regional bank shares, which must mean everything is awesome, right? - the regional bank crisis is still very much alive as evidenced by the red line below (without The Fed's imminently expiring BTFP facility)...

Source: Bloomberg

...what else are big banks (green line) going to do with all that cash burning a hole in their pockets (although we do note a big cash drop at large banks - which includes NYCB, but this was the week before).

As one veteran Fed watcher remarked "this is such a clusterfuck... deposits should be $500BN lower"

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is - this looks a lot like a 'Small Bank' crisis. The last time this happened, the crisis sparked a sudden $300BN 'run' in small bank deposits (this time it's bigger!).

Is The Fed 'hoping' for a controlled bank-run this time - so as many small bank deposits are drained voluntarily, before they are drained all at once in a panic (and the Reverse Repo facility is empty, unable to provide any cushion)?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-bank-crisis-looms-deposit-outflows-accelerated-last-week-loan-volumes-stagnate

Health Officials Concerned Over Possible RSV Vaccine Link To Rare Neurological Condition

 "Trust the science," they told us... 

At a time when the largest mRNA Covid vaccine peer-reviewed study recently revealed increases in neurological, blood, and heart-related conditions, along with the pharma-industrial complex unleashing a 'blitzkrieg' of vaccine commercials across corporate media outlets, a new report has found that vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus could be causing a rare nervous system disorder in older adults. 

The New York Times has reported that new safety data for two RSV vaccines, presented at a meeting of scientific advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday, indicates that Guillain-Barre syndrome - a rare condition where the immune system attacks nerve cells, leading to muscle weakness and paralysis - may have occurred in adults over 60 who received the vaccines. Two vaccines, Pfizer's Abrysvo and GSK's Arexvy, are currently available on the market.

Officials said the rare disease that attacks the immune system was found in two cases per 100,000 vaccinated, and added more data is needed to understand the risks. 

"At this point, due to the uncertainties and limitations, these early data cannot establish if there is an increased risk for GBS after vaccination in this age group," Dr. Thomas Shimabukuro, director of the CDC's Immunization Safety Office, said at the meeting on Thursday. 

Dr. Shimabukuro continued: Increased surveillance "will be better able to determine if an increased risk for GBS after RSV vaccination is present, and if so the magnitude of the risk." 

NYTimes pointed out the new safety data was derived from multiple databases maintained by federal health agencies: 

"Of 37 preliminary reports in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, officials verified 23 by medical record review, 15 with Abrysvo and eight after Arexvy, Dr. Shimabukuro said. There were nearly three additional cases of GBS per million doses of Abrysvo than would be expected in the population of older Americans.

"A separate database identified four cases of GBS linked to Arexvy, translating to an estimated 14 cases per million doses administered. That system did not pick up any cases after shots of Abrysvo. But the vaccine accounted for only about 10 percent of the total doses recorded in the database." -NYTimes

"I will say that these rates are higher than rates that we've observed for high-dose influenza and for Shingrix," Dr. Shimabukuro said.

NYTimes also noted, "Additional data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services indicated that the incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome after vaccination with Abrysvo was roughly five times higher than would be expected. The incidence after vaccination with Arexvy was not statistically significant." 

A GSK spokeswoman told the media outlet, "There are limitations to all of these data, and further analysis by FDA, CDC and the vaccine manufacturers are needed to confirm and quantify any potential risk." 

One X user makes a good point. 

Another said, "Trust the science." 

"Of course, they begin by saying it's so "Rare" until it's not," another X user said.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has warned about the lack of vaccine testing...

Remember this...

Perhaps Americans need to look at total health instead of relying on one-shot vaccines pitched as "miracle drugs." 

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/health-officials-concerned-over-possible-rsv-vaccine-link-rare-neurological-condition

Fed-Up San Fran Voters Set To Expand Police Power, Drug-Screen Welfare Recipients

 Fed up with a city ravaged by crime and drug addiction and shedding theft-plagued businesses weekly, voters in ultra-liberal San Francisco are poised to approve a ballot measure that would require illegal-drug screening for recipients of city benefits, and another that would give police more power and less oversight.  

That's the finding of a San Francisco Chamber of Commerce poll, in which 61% of likely voters said they back both measures on the March 5 ballot. It's a population that's increasingly aware of its trajectory: 71% say the city is on the wrong track. 

“The pendulum is swinging,” 41-year-old resident Malcolm Weitz tells the Wall Street Journal. “It’s coming hard-core back to the center.” He says he he'll vote yes on both propositions, completing a major philosophical u-turn. Weitz voted for progressive district attorney Chesa Boudin in 2019, only to vote to kick him out in the successful 2022 recall drive. 

Now, he and other residents are ready to sic the cops on the criminals. Proposition E would remove several shackles from law enforcers, authorizing them to:

• Engage in more high-speed chases
• Use drones during pursuits
• Install more cameras in public places and test electronic surveillance methods -- with less oversight
• File fewer reports about their use of force
• Substitute body-camera footage for other types of documentation 

Little of that would address the scourge of increasingly brazen shoplifters, which is encouraged by 2014's Prop 47, which turned thefts valued under $950 into mere misdemeanors. In an eye-rollingly limp-wristed effort to impose more accountability, state legislators in January proposed making jail time mandatory after a THIRD theft conviction.  

Proposition F endeavors to cut off city handouts to people likely to take the money and shoot it into their veins. It doesn't cover everyone, however, and the wording of the measure doesn't imply it will precipitate universal drug-testing: 

Shall the City require single adults age 65 and under with no dependent children who receive City public assistance benefits and whom the City reasonably suspects are dependent on illegal drugs to participate in screening, evaluation and treatment for drug dependency for those adults to be eligible for most of those benefits?

People who decline the screening, evaluation and treatment would be terminated and, depending on whether they're homeless, would receive a final 30 days of shelter access or rent paid direct to the landlord, according to San Francisco Public Press. 

Embattled San Francisco Mayor London Breed backs two ballot measures intended to pull the city out of the abyss (Eric Risberg/AP via Politico)

San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who's under fire as the city collapses and is facing multiple primary challengers to her 2024 reelection bid, is backing both measures. Striking a decidedly un-progressive tone in September, Breed said of the drug-screening requirement, "No more handouts without accountability. People are not accepting help. Now, it’s time to make sure that we are cutting off resources that continue to allow this behavior.”

As we wrote Monday, the latest indication that San Francisco is reaching new depths of despair comes with reports that a hardware store is now requiring shoppers who want to peruse its merchandise to be accompanied by an employee escort.   

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fed-san-fran-voters-set-expand-police-power-drug-screen-welfare-recipients

Study Finds Majority Of Patients With Long COVID Were Vaccinated

 by Megan Redshaw via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A recent study found that the majority of patients who suffered from long COVID during a time when vaccines and antiviral treatments were widely available were vaccinated.

The observational study published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine, researchers interviewed 390 people in Thailand who contracted COVID-19 during the “fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic” when the omicron variant was dominant. Patients were followed by phone from three months after their diagnosis for a year to monitor their physical condition, mental health, sleep disturbances, and quality of life.

Out of 390 people with COVID-19, 377 (97 percent) were vaccinated, 383 (98 percent) underwent antiviral treatment, and 330 (78 percent) developed long COVID syndrome. The most frequently reported symptoms were fatigue and cough. Other reported symptoms included depression, anxiety, and poor sleep quality. The study found that patients under age 60 with a cough as an initial symptom were more likely to develop the condition. In a subset of patients with long COVID, researchers found a notable correlation in females with headaches, dizziness, and brain fog.

“Despite the extensive distribution of vaccines and antiviral therapies, the prevalence of long COVID remains high,” the authors of the paper wrote.

Although definitions of long COVID differ, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) broadly defines long COVID as “signs, symptoms, and conditions that continue to develop after acute COVID-19 infection” that can last for “weeks, months, or years.” The term “long COVID” also includes post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection, long-haul COVID, and post-acute COVID-19.

According to the World Health Organization, while most people with COVID-19 recover and return to normal health, some patients, including those with mild illness, have symptoms that persist for weeks or months after recovering from acute illness.

Nearly 7 percent of U.S. adults surveyed by the CDC in 2022 said they’ve experienced long COVID. Although U.S. regulatory agencies claim vaccinating against COVID-19 can reduce the risk of developing long COVID, the current paper did not find a significant link between the presence of comorbidities or infection severity and the emergence of long COVID symptoms.

Studies Link Long COVID to Vaccination

A February report published by the CDC found that more than 8 percent of participants in seven U.S. states reported having experienced long COVID symptoms. In West Virginia, almost 11 percent of survey participants reported long COVID symptoms. However, the agency did not disclose whether survey respondents were vaccinated.

Some research suggests long COVID may be caused by an immune overreaction to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that COVID-19 vaccines use to induce antibodies and that vaccination causes some people to generate a second round of antibodies that target the first.

In a February 2023 study published in the Journal of Medical Virology, researchers analyzed the levels of spike protein and viral RNA in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with and without long COVID. They found that spike protein and viral RNA were more likely to be present in patients with long COVID.

In an August 2023 study published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, researchers found the risk of long COVID was lower in those who had previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the risk of getting long COVID did not differ by vaccination status. Researchers found that unvaccinated people infected with omicron had the lowest risk of long COVID.

In a 2023 study in the European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences, researchers studied the serum of 81 individuals with long COVID. They found viral spike protein in one patient after the infection had cleared despite having a negative COVID-19 test, and vaccine spike protein in two patients two months after vaccination.

In a December 2022 study published in PLoS One, researchers found patients were more likely to experience long COVID if they had preexisting medical conditions, a higher number of symptoms during the acute phase of COVID-19 illness, if their infection was more severe or resulted in hospitalization, or if they had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

The Epoch Times contacted the CDC for comment.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/study-finds-majority-patients-long-covid-were-vaccinated

Eye-Catching Jump In Inflation Expectations Threatens Bonds

 By Wes Goodman, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

The US two-year breakeven rate is showing an eye-popping increase and will put upward pressure on yields.

Inflation expectations are climbing as the Fed’s fight against rising prices seems to be sputtering. The latest warning for bond investors came from Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok, who said that a re-accelerating US economy, coupled with a rise in underlying inflation, will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2024.

The numbers tell the tale of a Fed battle against inflation that has yet to be won. Core PCE is the highest in almost a year. CPI and PPI both beat expectations.

All of this comes at a time when breakeven rates and yields are moving together more. This signals breakevens are asserting more influence on yields. The chart below shows the 30-day correlation between two-year breakeven rates and two-year yields is rising.

Bloomberg’s Correlation Finder shows that two-year breakeven rates are also moving largely in line with five- and 10-year yields, suggesting rising inflation expectations have the potential to buoy yields across maturities.

My theory is being put to the test today because Treasury yields are falling. Still, it’s worth keeping these risks in mind. The most potent warning from these breakevens came after they rose in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index went on to tumble a stunning 12% in 2022, its biggest loss based on Bloomberg data going back to 1974 –- the year President Richard Nixon resigned and I turned 10 years old.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eye-catching-jump-inflation-expectations-threatens-bonds