Trade War Over? Mex Prez: Tariff Halt For Month, Deploying 10,000 Troops To Border To Halt Fentanyl

 Late last night we said that it is very likely Trump's trade war would be very short, after we pointed to better than evern Polymarket odds that the trade war with both Mexico and Canada would be over in the next month or two.

And then, just hours later, this appears to have been validated after Mexico's president Scheinbaum said that after having a good conversation with Trump, Mexico is "pausing tariffs for a month for now" and that Mexico will promptly comply with Trump's ask by reinforning the northern border with 10,000 national guard members to "prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the US, particularly fentanyl."

Here is a translation of what she said:

We had a good conversation with President Trump with great respect for our relationship and sovereignty; we reached a series of agreements:

1. Mexico will immediately reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl.

2. The United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.

3. Our teams will begin working today on two fronts: security and trade.

4. They are pausing tariffs for one month from now.

President Trump has confirmed the tariffs are paused for one month:

And now that trade war with Mexico appears to be over, Trump just has to repeat the same with Canada when he speaks to Trudeau at 3pm ET today. As for China, we doubt that particular trade war will be as easy to win but who knows: Trump is certainly no a roll.

In any case, the market is certainly delighted with the outcome, and the Mexican peso is surging...

TSY yields are rising (shouldn't they fall on non-inflationary, non-tariffs?)...

And US equities are reversing the large losses overnight quite rapidly...

Now, what will the MSM say after doom-mongering all morning about Trump's 'catastrophic' tariffs?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trade-war-over-mexican-president-says-tariffs-delayed-month-after-deploying-10000-troops

Invivyd Positive Phase 1/2 Data for Monoclonal Antibody Designed to be Superior to COVID-19 Vax

 

• Recruitment completed and all doses administered for VYD2311 ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trial (40 subjects) evaluating 3 routes of administration
• Phase 1/2 clinical data for VYD2311 to date are positive for both safety and pharmacokinetics, and are supported by antiviral activity data from Invivyd's standard virologic assessments
  • Pooled, blinded adverse events (AEs) to date are mild or moderate and thus far deemed unrelated to study drug or largely related to injection site reaction or infusion reactions
  • As of Day 65, serum concentrations remain high with half-life not yet reached, indicating potential long clinical dosing interval
  • In vitro neutralization potency of VYD2311 assessed across contemporary SARS-CoV-2 variants tested shows an average 17-fold greater neutralization potency than pemivibart
• Phase 1/2 clinical data, combined with antiviral assessment and COVID-19 antiviral correlate of protection data, including Invivyd's Phase 3 CANOPY clinical trial data for pemivibart, support a potential clinical profile for VYD2311 with superior efficacy, safety, and durability to COVID-19 vaccines:
  • Stronger protection (70-90%) from symptomatic COVID-19 disease
  • Less frequent (e.g. once- or twice-annual) intramuscular or subcutaneous dosing
  • More favorable safety and tolerability and, since VYD2311 is not a vaccine, no activation of subject immune systems
• Profile also suitable as a potential novel, potent, long-acting COVID-19 treatment option

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/03/3019374/0/en/Invivyd-Announces-Positive-Phase-1-2-Clinical-Data-for-VYD2311-a-Monoclonal-Antibody-Designed-to-be-a-Superior-Alternative-to-COVID-19-Vaccination-for-the-Broad-Population.html

BriaCell Resolution of Lung Metastasis in First Patient treated with Bria-OTS

 

• Lung metastasis (from metastatic breast cancer) resolved - after only 2 months (4 doses) of treatment with Bria-OTS™ monotherapy
• No toxicity related to the treatment; Patient remains on study
• Unprecedented result in first patient dosed supports Bria-OTS™ personalized immunotherapy approach
• Ongoing Phase 1/2a dose escalation study to evaluate Bria-OTS™, BriaCell's personalized off-the-shelf immunotherapy in metastatic breast cancer

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/03/3019425/0/en/BriaCell-Announces-Resolution-of-Lung-Metastasis-in-First-Patient-treated-with-Bria-OTS.html

GH Research Primary Endpoint Met in Phase 2b Depression Trial

 

• Primary endpoint met, GH001 led to an ultra-rapid anti-depressant effect with a significant placebo-adjusted MADRS reduction from baseline of -15.5 on Day 8 (p<0.0001)
• The majority of the patients treated with GH001 achieved remission with a 57.5% remission rate on Day 8 compared with 0% in the placebo group (p<0.0001)
• All other secondary endpoints were met with clinically and statistically significant improvements on Day 8, compared with placebo
• During the double-blind part, GH001 was well tolerated and no serious adverse events (SAE) were reported. There was no evidence of treatment-emergent suicidal ideation or behavior. As of January 22, 2025, no SAEs have been reported throughout the open label extension (OLE)
• As of January 22, 2025, 77.8% of the OLE completers were in remission at the 6-month visit, with infrequent treatments
• Patients who had remission on Day 8 after their first active treatment had a 91.7% remission rate at 6 months

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/03/3019385/0/en/GH-Research-Announces-Primary-Endpoint-Met-in-Phase-2b-Trial-with-GH001-in-TRD-Demonstrating-15-5-Point-Placebo-adjusted-MADRS-Reduction.html

HCW Biologics Granted FDA OK for Alopecia Phase 1

 To evaluate HCW9302 in patients with moderate to severe alopecia areata

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/03/3019408/0/en/HCW-Biologics-Granted-FDA-Clearance-to-Evaluate-One-of-the-Company-s-Lead-Product-Candidates-in-a-First-In-Human-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial.html

Baxter International Weighing Potential Tariff Impact

 Baxter International said it weighing the potential impact of the Trump administration's planned tariffs on the medical-products maker's guidance.

Baxter on Monday said it stands by its 2025 goals of 4% to 5% operational sales growth and roughly 16.5% adjusted operating margin, but it noted that the margin guidance doesn't include any impact from the tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China.

The Deerfield, Ill., company said it is working to quantify the expected impact of the tariffs and to identify potential mitigation opportunities, adding that it will provide an update during its fourth-quarter earnings conference call, which it has postponed to Feb. 20 from Feb. 13.

Baxter, which also on Monday announced the departure of Chairman and Chief Executive Jose Almeida, said it expects its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results will be in line with the guidance it provided in November.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202502034527/baxter-international-weighing-potential-tariff-impact

'Goldman Believes U.S. Tariffs on Energy Have Been Priced into the Oil Market -- OPIS'

 U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican energy will take effect Tuesday, but the Goldman Sachs commodities team believes the cost has already been priced into the global oil market.

The analysts said January markets were already pricing in tariffs and predicted Canadian oil will still fetch prices "far above production costs."

The bank in a Sunday note also said the cost of the tariffs to consumers will be about $2-$3/bbl, or 4.75cts to 7.1cts/gal for gasoline and diesel.

Goldman analysts said they expect Canadian producers will have to widen discounts to West Texas Intermediate futures by $3-$4/bbl, which equates to $16.75-$17.75/bbl discounts for Western Canadian Select crude FOB Hardisty, Alberta. Deals on Friday were done at a discount of $13.75/bbl.

The bank also said it believes the tariffs will be temporary and said marine cargos of Mexican or Canadian crude will be rerouted as U.S. refiners turn to replacement crude from Latin America or OPEC.

Goldman maintained its forecast that Brent crude prices will average $78/bbl this year and $73/bbl in 2026.

The bank's analysts, however, warned there is some downside risk to the Brent price forecasts if the tariffs remain in place. Under that scenario, they said the average price for Brent could fall to the mid-to-high $60s by the end of 2026 due to weaker economic growth.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/commodity/WTI-2355639/news/Goldman-Believes-U-S-Tariffs-on-Energy-Have-Been-Priced-into-the-Oil-Market-OPIS-48939545/