The Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on Friday a decree which could allow foreign investors to recover shares in the Sakhalin-1 project, including Exxon Mobil.
The decree was signed on the same day that Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska. At the summit, opportunities for business collaboration and investment will be discussed alongside discussions to bring peace to Ukraine.
The decree published on Friday was a follow up to the one Putin signed in 2022 which ordered the seizure the Sakhalin-1 Project.
Exxon held a 30% operator stake in this lucrative project and is the sole non-Russian investor who has sold its stake.
Exxon didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
It is not clear how Western investors can return to Russia, as the U.S. & EU would have to lift extensive sanctions in order to do so. The Russian government also places high barriers in the way of companies who may wish to return after spending significant sums to leave the country three year ago.
Trump and his team are considering what sanctions they might be able lift quickly if the talks progress. Sakhalin-1 is not directly listed under the extensive U.S. energy sanctions.
In order to recover their shares, foreign investors must support the lifting Western sanctions. The decree also stipulates that foreign shareholders must conclude contracts to supply the necessary equipment made abroad to the Sakhalin-1 Project, and to transfer funds into Sakhalin-1 account.
Exxon has taken a $4.6 billion impairment charge to exit its Russian operations after Moscow sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022.
Putin extended the period of sale for the Exxon share in Sakhalin-1 that was not claimed until 2026.
The October 2022 decree established Rosneft subsidiary Sakhalinmorneftegaz-shelf as the new operator, allowing the Russian government to decide foreign investors' ownership rights in Sakhalin-1.
Exxon was joined by Rosneft from Russia, India's ONGC Videsh, and Japan's SODECO. Both ONGC Videsh, and SODECO were allowed to retain their stakes by the Russian government.
Following are key quotes from Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement after meeting U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday. Translation by Reuters.
ON RUSSIA-U.S. TIES
As is known, Russian-American summits have not been held for more than four years. This is a long time. The past period was very difficult for bilateral relations. And, let's be honest, they have slid to the lowest point since the Cold War. And this is not good for our countries, or the world as a whole. Obviously, sooner or later, it was necessary to correct the situation, to move from confrontation to dialogue. And in this regard, a personal meeting of the heads of the two states was really overdue...
ON UKRAINE
As you well know and understand, one of the central issues
has become the situation around Ukraine. We see the desire of the U.S. administration and President Trump personally to facilitate the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, his desire to delve into the essence and understand its origins.
I have said more than once that for Russia the events in Ukraine are associated with fundamental threats to our national security. Moreover, we have always considered and consider the Ukrainian people, I have said this many times, brotherly, no matter how strange that may sound in today's conditions. We have the same roots and everything that is happening for us is a tragedy and a great pain. Therefore, our country is sincerely interested in putting an end to this. But at the same time, we are convinced that in order for the Ukrainian settlement to be sustainable and long-term, all the root causes of the crisis must be eliminated...
All of Russia's legitimate concerns must be taken into account, and a fair balance in the security sphere in Europe and the world as a whole must be restored.
I agree with President Trump -- he spoke about this today -- that Ukraine's security must, without a doubt, be ensured. We are ready to work on this. I would like to hope that the understanding we have reached will allow us to get closer to that goal and open the way to peace in Ukraine. We expect that Kyiv and the European capitals will perceive all of this in a constructive manner and will not create any obstacles. That they will not attempt to disrupt the emerging progress through provocation or behind-the-scenes intrigue.
ON ECONOMIC TIES
It is obvious that Russian-American business and investment partnership has enormous potential. Russia and the United States have something to offer each other in trade, energy, the digital sphere, high tech and space exploration. Cooperation in the Arctic, resumption of interregional contacts, including between our Far East and the American West Coast, also seem relevant...
I expect that today's agreements will become a reference point not only for solving the Ukrainian problem, but will also
launch the restoration of business-like, pragmatic relations between Russia and the United States.
ON COOPERATION WITH TRUMP
Overall we have established very good business-like and trusting contact with President Trump. And I have every reason to believe that by moving along this path, we can - the quicker the better - reach an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
Fewer women in the United States are opting for birth control pills than before, according to KFF data.
Where 33 percent of women aged 18 to 49 years old said they used oral contraceptives in 2022, that had ticked down to 29 percent in 2024.
As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, after male condoms, the pill is still the most commonly used form of contraception in the U.S.
Recently, there has been a growing number of influencers on TikTok criticizing different forms of hormonal birth control and promoting tracking fertility cycle apps instead.
This goes against experts’ advice, which states that contraceptives such as the pill and IUDs are safe and effective and that risks have been exaggerated online.
This is a trend that has been seen in other countries too.
The BBC reports that in the United Kingdom, some women are moving away from “hormonal” products such as the pill to “natural” fertility tracking apps.
While in Germany, health concerns have been cited in recent years, with younger women in particular moving away from the pill.
The KFF reports that almost four in ten (39 percent) of women of reproductive age have heard something on social media about birth control in the past 12 months, including half (49 percent) of women aged 18 to 25. Meanwhile, one in seven women aged 18 to 25 said they made a change or thought about making a change to their birth control method because of something they saw or heard on social media.
2024 data shows that emergency contraception increased by 5 percentage points compared to two years prior. This brings it to 12 percent of U.S. women aged 18 to 49.
Putin began the joint press conference noting that negotiations were "useful" and held “in a constructive atmosphere.”
Putin says there’s an agreement but Trump appears to dispute that fact, though he notes several points of alignment.
The leaders didn’t spell out the points that had been agreed and those that hadn’t been.
Putin agreed with Trump that Ukraine's security must be guaranteed, and framed the agreement as a starting point for resolving the Ukraine situation, as well as restoring economic relations.
“I would like to hope that the agreement we’ve reached together will help us bring closer that goal and will pave a path towards peace in Ukraine,” Putin says.
“I expect that today’s agreements will be the starting point, not only for the solution of the Ukrainian issue, but also will help us bring back businesslike and pragmatic relations between Russia and the US.”
He also notes that US and Russian investment and business cooperation have “tremendous potential.”
Trump then spoke:
“We had an extremely productive meeting and many points were agreed to. There are just a very few that are left.
Some are not that significant; one is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there.
We didn’t get there but we have a very good chance of getting there.”
“There’s no deal until there’s a deal,”Trump added.
Trump added that he will confer with the leaders of NATO and Ukraine.
“I’m going to start making a few phone calls and tell them what happened,” he said.
Putin suggested the next meeting of the two leaders should be in Moscow. Trump frowned and suggested he would "take some heat" for that.
Neither Putin nor Trump fielded any questions from reporters.
* * *
Update (1830ET): Discussions concluded after more than two-and-a-half hours at the summit in Alaska, marking the longest in-person meeting by Trump and Putin and offering a sign that by the US leader’s own metric the talks went well.
Trump aide Dan Scavino said a three-on-three meeting was still ongoing at 1:25 p.m. Alaska time, more than two hours after reporters were ushered out of the room for the start of the formal discussions.
The Kremlin later said the narrow-format talks had finished.
Joining the leaders in Friday’s meeting were US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov accompanying Putin.
RT reports that Defense Minister Belousov is "in a great mood."
Fox News is reporting that Trump is currently holding a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and other European leaders.
Behind the scenes:
* * *
Big B-2 flyover with both leaders on the tarmac, just after the handshake...
Update(1430ET): President Trump said just before landing in Anchorage that "there's a good respect level on both sides" - but he has also threatened to "walk" if things don't go well.
Trump told Fox News' White House correspondent aboard Air Force One that if his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't go well, "I would walk." According to the brief exchange:
"I mean, if it doesn't, you walk?" Baier asked.
"I would walk, yeah," Trump said.
But Trump also struck a tone of optimism: "I think we're going to do very well. Our country is doing very well. We're setting records economically like we never have before, including the stock markets are all at record high," he said.
Trump told Fox further, "We're taking in trillions and trillions of dollars with tariffs. We're going for a meeting with President Putin in Alaska, and I think it's going to work out very well. And if it doesn't, I'm gonna head back home real fast."
"Look, he's a smart guy. Been doing it for a long time, but so have I," Trump said of Putin. "We get along. There's a good respect level on both sides." Per ABC and others:
A White House official confirms President Donald Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin will now be a three-on-three meeting. The president will be joined by White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
For the expanded working lunch, the president will be joined by Rubio, Witkoff, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, according to a White House official.
Air Force One lands...
Trump warns Putin: 'very economically severe' consequences if meeting doesn't go to his liking
* * *
President Trump has boarded Air Force One and is en route to Anchorage, Alaska - where what could be the most historic summit of his presidency is set to begin at 3pm Alaska time, which is 3pm eastern, and as the Russian delegation headed by Putin has already landed at Elmendorf-Richardson Air Force Base, which is venue for the talks.
Trump himself has been busy trying to temper expectations, calling it a "feel-out" meeting and the White House elsewhere referring to a "listening exercise" on the Ukraine war and bilateral Moscow-Washington relations.
While the consensus among Western officials and pundits is that deal to finally end the war is likely yet still far away, "we do expect some progress in today’s meeting and a path set for further discussions," according to Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. "If we move toward a peace deal, it would be positive for the European markets."
Below is everything you need to know (via Newsquawk):
Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska on Friday 15th August 2025; Summit to begin at 15:00 EDT/20:00 BST; Trump assigned a 25% chance the meeting will not be successful.
OVERVIEW
MEETING FORMAT
US President Trump is to meet Russian President Putin in US territory at Elmendorf-Richardson Air Force Base near Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday, 15 August 2025.
White House said US President Trump will participate in a bilateral program with the President of the Russian Federation in Alaska at 11:00AM (15:00EDT/20:00BST) and will depart Alaska at 17:45 (21:45/02:45BST).
The Alaska summit will begin at 11:30 local time on Friday (20:30 BST/15:30 EDT), according to Russian Kremlin's Ushakov on Wednesday.
Russian President Putin and US President Trump to have a one-on-one meeting with translators; also to have a wider meeting with delegations.
US President Trump on Thursday said that he does not know if there will be a joint press conference with Russian President Putin after the Alaska meeting. Trump will have a press conference however the talks go.
Russian delegation to include Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Advisor Ushakov, Defence Minister Belousov, Finance Minister Siluanov and Special Envoy and head of Sovereign Wealth Fund Dmitriev.
The meeting will be the first time the Russian leader has set foot on US soil since 2015.
Ukrainian President Zelensky is not invited to the Alaska summit.
PURPOSE:
The meeting aims to explore ways to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Russia's Kremlin said the central topic is Ukraine. The sides are to discuss trade and economic cooperation where there is "huge untapped potential".
White House spokeswoman Leavitt described it as a “listening exercise" to hear what Putin proposes.
"At the end of that meeting, probably the first two minutes, I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made," Trump said at a White House press conference.
EXPECTATIONS
The White House downplayed expectations, describing the meeting as a listening exercise. President Trump called it a leel-out meeting.
US President Trump on Thursday assigned a 25% chance that the first meeting (Alaska) is not successful; and said he could be more sanctions if the meeting is not successful. Trump added Have economic incentives and disincentives at his disposal for the meeting; would rather not say about specifics. Incentives/sanctions are "very powerful".
There are no plans to sign documents on the outcome of the Alaska summit between Russia and the US, via Ifx citing the Kremlin; would be a mistake to predict the outcome of the talks.
"All in all, it is difficult to envision a smooth solution to the Russia-Ukraine war through this summit, with Moscow demanding Ukraine give up some territory, a red line for Kyiv."
Analysts at Rane suggest the Friday summit "risks side-lining Ukraine, fracturing Western unity and creating space for Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains and promote a US-Russia framework that advances Russian strategic interests." Markets will likely focus on several factors:
the prospect of looser US sanctions on Russia.
how far Russia is willing to go on concessions.
any tangible progress towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
TRUMP'S CALL WITH EUROPEAN LEADERS ON WEDNESDAY
US President Trump held a call with European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky, which he said was a very good call and "rate it a 10", while he will meet with Russian President Putin, then will call Zelensky and European leaders.
Trump said there is a good chance of a second meeting and he would like to do a second meeting almost immediately which would include Zelensky if the first meeting goes okay, but there may not be a second meeting if he feels it is inappropriate or if he does not get the answers he wants.
Furthermore, he said the first meeting is finding out what they are doing and a second meeting will be more productive, but warned that Russia will face consequences if the war is not stopped.
US President Trump discussed with European leaders possible locations for a meeting between Zelensky, Trump and Putin after the Alaska summit, while locations include cities in Europe and the Middle East, according to Reuters citing sources.
US President Trump reportedly told those on Wednesday's call that he is willing to contribute US security guarantees for Ukraine with some conditions, via Politico citing sources; openness that helps explain the cautious European optimism. Guarantees which are seen as key by Europe and Ukraine. However, Politico caveats that Trump did not elaborate on what he meant by security guarantees, and would only make this commitment of the effort is not part of NATO.
RUSSIA'S PRE-MEETING COMMENTS
Russian Foreign Ministry says Moscow expects Trump's visit to Russia after Alaska summit, according to AI Arabiya.
"We have a clear position that we will present at the Alaska summit and hope to continue the dialogue".
"We do not speculate on anything in the future and we have clear arguments and positions that we will present during the Alaska summit".
Russian President Putin said the US is making a sincere effort to find a solution for the Ukraine crisis; US are seeking agreements that are acceptable to all, via Ifx. Peace will be strengthened if at the next stage Russia and US reach agreements in the field of strategic offensive arms control. New arms agreements with US are possible.
UKRAINE INVOLVEMENT
President Trump said he may arrange a subsequent meeting involving Zelensky and Putin, but he dismissed Zelensky’s desire to participate directly, noting that the Ukrainian leader has ' been to a lot of meetings' without ending the war.
Zelensky criticised the summit's bilateral format, warning that any peace deal must be approved in a national referendum and that the absence of Ukraine would render an agreement illegitimate.
RENEWED OFFENSIVE
Ukrainian President Zelensky on August 12th posted, "We see that the Russian army is not preparing to end the war. On the contrary, they are making movements that indicate preparations for new offensive operations.”
Zelensky added that Russia is moving troops from the Sumy region to Pokrovsky, Zaporizhzhia, and is preparing for a new assault at the start of September.
Zelensky said the current Russian push in eastern Ukraine is timed to coincide with Trump-Putin talks.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not cede land.
Russian President Putin reportedly appears ready to test new nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered cruise missiles even as he prepares for talks with US President Trump, according to US researchers and Western security sources cited by Reuters.
Ukraine's military says it struck Russia's port Olya in the Astrakhan region on Thursday and hit a ship with drone parts and ammo from Iran.
STANCES
RUSSIA'S POSITION
Russian President Putin is seek ng to lock in Russia's territorial gains and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Reports suggest Putin may have floated a ceasefire that asks Ukraine to cede much of Donetsk and to demilitarize
Bloomberg reported on August 5th that the Kremlin is said to be mulling options for a concession to US President Trump that could include an air truce with Ukraine, in a bid to minimize the threat of secondary sanctions
US and Russia reportedly planning Ukraine deal to cement Russ an territorial gains, according to Bloomberg (Aug 8th). Russia would halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine
Russian President Putin reportedly demands Ukraine cede Donetsk Lunansk and Crimea.
Putin told Witkoff he would agree to a complete cease-fire if Ukraine agreed to withdraw forces from all of Ukraine s Eastern Donetsk region.
UKRAINE'S POSITION
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he understood that Russia wants Kyiv to pull out of Donbas and will not advance in other directions in exchange, he added that Ukraine will not pull out of Donbas as such a move would open the way for Russia to attack Dnipropetrovsk. Zaporizhzhia regions, and Kharkiv
Zelensky added that territorial issues should be discussed after the ceasefire and along with security guarantees for Ukraine.
In a press conference, he warned that Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw from the remaining 30% of the Donetsk region, but Ukraine's constitution prohibits surrendering territory.
He also emphasized that giving up Donbas would become a springboard for future invasions; he insists Ukraine will not leave its fortifications or open an avenue for a Russian offensive.
Ukraine insists on a durable ceasefire before any discussion of territorial issues. According to Politico Zelenskyy and European allies will use Wednesday's call tc push for a deal that demands a lasting ceasefire.
Prior reports of softened Ukraine Stance
Ukraine could agree to stop fighting and cede territory already held by Russia as pal of a European-backed plan for peace, according to The Telegraph (Aug 11th)
Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly told European leaders that they must reject any settlement produced by Trump, which sees them giving up Ukrainian land they still hold, but that Ukrainian territory in Russia's control could be on the table. This would mean freezing the frontline where it is and handing Russia de facto control of the territory it occupies
EU/NATO POSITION
EU and NATO leaders insist that Ukraine’s sovereignty and security guarantees are non-negotiable while analysts caution that land-swap proposals risk legitimizing aggression.
NATO Secretary-Genera Rutte described the Alaska summit as a way to test Putin's seriousness and stressed that Ukraine must decide its own future he argued that only involving Ukraine and Europe will make any settlement
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said on August 11th that the EU will work on a 1st package of sanctions against Russia while she warned against concessions to Moscow.
Germany said it will fund a USD 500m n package of military equipment and munitions
Polish PM Tusk said they cannot allow the biggest powers to decide the fate of smaller countries without their participation and Russia wants to ink a reduction in NATO troops in Poland to the talks about Ukraine, while he added It will be easier for Poland's opponents to "play us" if we are not united.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS AND MARKET ANGLES
No Deal [most likely]:
Analysts consider it likely that the summit results n no ma or agreement Trump may simply gauge Put n s intentions and then coordinate with Zelenskyy and Europe.
Broader sentiment will likely not be too swayed by a "no deal" amid low expectations heading into the meeting
Limited Ceasefire [possible]
This could be seen as progress toward de-escalation: on and potential easing of sanctions
A "limited ceasefire" could be short-term negative for oil. defense stocks whilst stocks and EUR equities and EGBs could be buoyed
Some analysts suggest Russia could use a limited ceasefire to regroup and delay sanctions.
US-Russia Tensions Escalate [possible but not in bilateral interests]
A further breakdown in relations between Moscow and Washington could see risk avers on and a rise in oil prices.
Goldman Sachs: While lack of progress towards a ceasefire may lead renewed threats of secondary oil tariffs/sanctions, we see limited risk of large disruptions in Russia supply given the large volumes of Russian exports the possibility for deepening price discounts to maintain demand, and Iikely eagerness of the key buyers, India and especially China to continue energy cooperation with Russia
As a reminder. US President Trump recently ordered two nuclear submarines to be "positioned in the appropriate regions" in response to "highly provocative ’ comments by former Russian President Medvedev
Land-Swap Proposal [possible but unlikely to be accepted]:
If Trump agrees to a ceasefire that frontloads territorial concessions, analysts warn that Ukraine and Europe will reject it. Such a deal could trigger political backlash in Ukraine and may collapse due to constitutional and public opposition
Short-term risk across markets amid progress toward de-escalation and potent al easing of sanctions with energy likely to slip. However, the reaction will likely fade if/when rejected by Ukraine.
Comprehensive Framework [near-zero]
Neither side currently appears willing to make the necessary concessions. Without Ukraine's participation on any framework is likely to faiI.
Risk on. energy sold
Goldman Sachs "While a lasting peace agreement may potentially lead to a relaxation of US sanctions on Russian oil we wouldn't expect a significant short-term increase in Russian oiI supply in this scenario. The reason is that Russian production, in our view, has instead been constrained by CPEC+ quota decisions, low oi: investment, and a strong Ruble
Here is what the most likely outcomes are according to a Bloomberg Markets Live poll:
BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg's John Authers citing Christopher Smart of the Arbroath Group says "European defence stocks should fly on any lopsided deal that rewards Russia's aggression with oil prices likely to slump on even the whiff of looser sanctions on Russian oil... Beyond Europe, markets appear to have long since moved past the 2022 invasion, implying Friday s meeting has little potential to trigger a significant market shift. "
GOLDMAN SACHS: We don't expect the announced meeting between President Trump and President Putin, scheduled for Friday August 15 to cause a significant shift in Russian oil supply in key scenarios”.
ING: If we do see some level of de-escalation, it could remove sanction risk from the oil market. This would likely drive prices lower, given the Bearish fundamentals .
Attorney General Pam Bondi said Thursday she was ramping up pressure on 32 “sanctuary jurisdictions,” urging them to comply with federal immigration enforcement efforts.
“I just sent Sanctuary City letters to 32 mayors around the country and multiple governors saying, you better be abiding by our federal policies and with our federal law enforcement, because if you aren’t, we’re going to come after you,” she told a Fox News reporter.
“And they have, I think, a week to respond to me, so let’s see who responds and how they respond. It starts at the top, and our leaders have to support our law enforcement,” she added.
The measure comes after an Aug. 5 release from the Justice Department highlighting various states, cities and counties deemed noncompliant with regulations that impede enforcement of federal immigration laws.
“For too long, so-called sanctuary jurisdiction policies have undermined this necessary cooperation and obstructed federal immigration enforcement, giving aliens cover to perpetrate crimes in our communities and evade the immigration consequences that federal law requires,” Bondi wrote in the letter to officials across the country.
“Any sanctuary jurisdiction that continues to put illegal aliens ahead of American citizens can either come to the table or see us in court,” Bondi wrote in a post announcing the move.
The California Coastal Commission rejected a proposal Thursday to increase the number of yearly rocket launches fromElon Musk’s SpaceX at Vandenberg Space Force Base.
The commissioners unanimously voted down the push to increase launches of SpaceX rockets from 50 to 100 a year from the base north of Santa Barbara, citing concerns that they did not have enough information about the environmental and community impacts of doubling the number of launches.
“There are a number of unanswered questions that make it really quite impossible for us to engage,” Caryl Hart, vice chair of the commission, said at Thursday’s meeting.
“Here today, once again, we see no appearance by U.S. Air Force, U.S. Space Force or SpaceX to answer the questions that we have, further indications that there just doesn’t seem to be a willingness to provide further information,” she added.
The decision comes after SpaceX sued the commission last year over an earlier vote to deny an increase from 36 to 50 yearly launches, alleging political discrimination and regulatory overreach.
“Rarely has a government agency made so clear that it was exceeding its authorized mandate to punish a company for the political views and statements of its largest shareholder and CEO,” the complaint argues.
However, Musk’s firm appears poised to receive a boost from the federal government, after President Trump signed an executive order Wednesday easing regulations for commercial rocket launches and spaceport development.
This includes eliminating or expediting environmental reviews, as well as creating exemptions from or rescinding licensing regulations. The order also seeks to evaluate state and local restrictions on spaceport development.
The spacecraft and satellite communications company has already performed more than 100 launches this year from bases in California, Florida and Texas, according to SpaceX’s website.
While Trump has been raging in the past month at India for buying Russian oil (then processing it and reselling it to Europe at a huge markup) and slapping it with punitive tariffs in response to repeat sanctions violations, he has generally ignored the fact thatChina has been importing glorious amounts of Russian oil as well: amounts which are only set to becomeeven more glorious in coming weeks.
And now that India is suddenly shy about funneling millions of Russian barrels with the world spotlight aimed squarely at it, Beijing is stepping up to fill the void: according to Kpler, Chinese state-owned and mega-sized private refiners are snapping up Western Russian crude cargoes for Oct. and Nov. arrival as India eases off.
Previously Bloomberg reported that in hopes to appease Trump and as they hedged their bets ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, refiners in India, the world’s top importer of seaborne Russian crude, have been scouring the globe for alternative supplies. Trump has demanded that India stop purchases of cut-price crude and doubled tariffs on the country’s goods as punishment for imports he has said were fuelling “the war machine”. The move left refiners in the world’s third-largest oil consumer looking to switch up their procurement plans.
India’s state processors have bought large volumes of non-Russian crude this week for prompt September-October delivery, extending a buying spree spurred by an early threat by Washington. Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. have taken cargoes from all corners of the market including the US, but also Brazil and the Middle East. Just earlier today, Reuters reported that IOC bought another cargo of US WTI for delivery in October.
These spot market purchases come on top of supplies from long-term sellers like Saudi Arabia, which is set to send about 22.5 million barrels of crude to India for September loading, traders said. India’s monthly imports from Saudi last exceeded that level in September 2024, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
And with India slowing, China has stepped up: as Bloomberg reports, Chinese refiners purchased about 13 cargoes of Urals and Varandey for October delivery, and at least two Urals cargoes for Nov., Kpler analyst Muyu Xu wrote in a report. The last time China took Varandey was Sept. 2023.
Following intensified Ukrainian drone attacks, which have crippled many of its refineries and lowered domestic intakes, Russia instead moved to export 10-12 more Urals cargoes. Indeed, according to BBG, refineriies at Saratov, Novokuibyshevsk, Afipskiy, and Ryazan have fully or partially halted crude intake
Still, the rise in Chinese demand for Russian oil has failed to fully offset loss of Indian demand, and Urals may be trading at $0.80/bbl premium to Dated Brent, down from $2/bbl before India scaled back buying in July. Prices are expected to fall further if India continues to eschew Russian, although with India forced to buy oil in the open market, it will likely push broader benchmark prices solidly higher in coming weeks.
