Too early to short stocks as flows overpower macro risks – Nomura

 Equity markets may remain difficult to short in the near term despite rising macro risks, as positioning and flows continue to support prices, according to Nomura.

In a recent note, strategist Charlie McElligott said investors are still rebuilding exposure after being heavily de-risked during earlier volatility, creating a backdrop where buying pressure can persist even as fundamental concerns grow. That dynamic has been reinforced by the unwinding of downside hedges, with put positions losing value and generating positive delta that has helped fuel the rally.

Short covering has also played a key role, with high short-interest stocks rising sharply in recent sessions as traders move to re-establish positioning. At the same time, options activity suggests investors are increasingly chasing upside, particularly in megacap technology names.

McElligott argues that this flow-driven support makes it premature to bet against equities (SPY) (IVV) (VOO) (DIA) (QQQ). He said it would take either a renewed bond-market selloff or a more extreme buildup in bullish positioning to create conditions for a sustained downturn.

That said, macro risks are building beneath the surface. McElligott highlighted the potential for an energy-driven inflation shock, which could trigger tighter central bank policy and pressure global growth.

For now, however, those risks are being overshadowed by positioning dynamics, leaving markets supported even as uncertainty remains elevated.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/too-early-to-short-stocks-as-flows-overpower-macro-risks-nomura/ar-AA21fb5E

Iran halts petrochemical exports to supply domestic market

Iran has halted exports of all petrochemical products until further notice to prevent shortages of raw materials and stabilize the domestic market, state-linked media reported.

A letter issued by a senior official at the National Petrochemical Company instructed producers to stop exports and redirect supply to domestic industries.

The directive said the move aims to support downstream industries and consumers following damage caused by recent attacks and to ensure adequate supply in the domestic market, the report said.

Attacks, curbs hit sector

Domestic prices for petrochemical and related products have been held at pre-conflict levels despite rising global prices, officials said, adding the measures would remain in place to support local industry and consumers.

Companies were also told to return export cargoes that have not yet cleared customs, with associated costs to be reported for possible adjustments to domestic pricing.

ey petrochemical hubs in Asaluyeh and Mahshahr have been hit in recent weeks, including strikes on utilities supplying feedstock to plants, disrupting production.

The US military has also begun blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran’s ports this week, a move aimed at reducing Iran’s export revenues as Tehran and Washington consider a second round of talks.

Economic strain deepens

The measures come as Iran faces mounting economic pressure, with reports sent by citizens to Iran Internationaldescribing factory closures and layoffs in industrial hubs due to shortages of raw materials and weak demand.

Residents said businesses have struggled with disrupted supply chains and an ongoing internet shutdown, which has further strained operations and added to rising prices.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604167873

Adviser Velayati says any move against Iran will bring ‘chain reaction’

 

Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to the former Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, said in a post on X that the era of imposing security “from across the oceans” was over and warned that “any mischief will trigger a chain reaction.”

He said security in Hormuz and Malacca was now guaranteed “under the shadow of our power and that of our strategic partners,” and added that security in the Bab al-Mandab was in the hands of “our Ansarallah brothers,” referring to Yemen’s Houthis.

Velayati also took aim at Britain and France, saying that if they were concerned about shipping security, they should “think about the English Channel and the old wound of Gibraltar.” He added: “We appreciate Madrid’s independent and wise positions.”

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604194357

Trump says US envoys due in Pakistan Monday despite Iran ceasefire violation

 

• President Donald Trump said Iran had violated the ceasefire by firing shots in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Washington was offering a fair deal and that US representatives will arrive in Islamabad on Monday for negotiations with Tehran.

• The USS Gerald Ford has left the Mediterranean and is now operating in the Red Sea, CNN reported, citing US officials. The move is meant to strengthen military readiness in case attacks on Iran resume if the ceasefire is not extended.

• US President Donald Trump shared videos on Truth Social showing Iranian-Americans and Iranians expressing thanks and support for US action against Iran, before posting another image saying: “The best is yet to come.”

• Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz remains fully under Iranian control and warned that any further US naval movement, including mine-clearing operations, would be treated as a ceasefire violation and could be met with force.

• US Central Command said its naval forces are enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports and that the operation has completely halted Iran’s maritime trade, while the USS Rushmore is conducting blockade operations in the Arabian Sea.

• Iran has said it will not send any enriched uranium material to the United States and remains opposed to direct talks for now, while also insisting new rules for the Strait of Hormuz will be part of any negotiations.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604194357

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spains-last-chance-could-far-left-govts-mass-legalization-migrants-be-blocked-supreme

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/us-navy-deploys-sea-robots-sweep-hormuz-chokepoint-mines

North Korea missile launch seen as signal over Iran war

 

North Korea fired ballistic missiles into the sea on Sunday in a move some analysts linked directly to the war over Iran, with one former South Korean presidential security adviser saying the launches may have been intended to show that, “unlike Iran,” Pyongyang has self-defense capabilities.

The launch came as the seven-week US-Israeli war against Iran continues, with curbing Tehran’s nuclear program one of its stated aims. Experts and former South Korean officials say the conflict could further reinforce North Korea’s own nuclear ambitions.

“The missile launches may be a way of showing that - unlike Iran - we have self-defense capabilities,” Kim Ki-jung said.

He added that Pyongyang also appeared to be applying pressure and showing force ahead of any possible dialogue with the United States and South Korea.

It was North Korea’s fourth such launch this month and seventh of the year. South Korea’s military said the missiles were fired from near Sinpo on the country’s east coast at around 6:10 a.m. local time and flew about 140 km.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604194357