Friday, June 19, 2026
'Iran warns of 'consequences' for Israeli strikes in Lebanon'
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei (pictured) condemned the latest Israeli attacks in Lebanon on Friday, claiming that there will be "serious and immediate consequences" for Israel's "continued war-making on regional peace and security."
The Iranian spokesperson also stated that the United States bears "direct responsibility" for the attacks and referred to the recently signed memorandum of understanding, which indicated that the ceasefire in Lebanon was an "integral" part of the agreement between the US and Iran. He added that Tehran will "take all necessary measures to protect its interests, security, and rights and those of its allies."
Goldman Axes $500 From Gold Target on No Fed Cuts This Year
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce as the Federal Reserve is no longer seen easing in 2026.
The revised target of $4,900 an ounce for December implies bullion is still expected to gain ground in the second half, although less than previously expected, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note.
"Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk," they said.
The Wall Street titan has been one of the most consistently bullish and high-profile voices on bullion in recent years, and the tweaked target represents a slight shift in tone. Among a string of positive calls, the bank in late 2024 advised investors to "go for gold," correctly predicting a major rally.
The precious metal has struggled in recent months as the war in the Middle East initially lifted energy prices, boosting expectations for tighter monetary policy. This week, while the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged, policymakers signaled growing support for hikes this year. At the same time, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh vowed to restore price stability.
The cut to the outlook was driven by a lower forecast for inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds after the bank's economists pushed back expectations for US rate cuts to June and December of next year, the analysts said. Previously, reductions were seen in December 2026 and March 2027.
In addition, concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "surprisingly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Warsh's leadership, they added. Warsh was appointed by President Donald Trump, who elevated him after repeatedly lashing out at his predecessor for not slashing rates enough.
If the Fed were to hike, "demand for gold as a macro policy hedge could unwind more persistently," with prices at $4,400 by year-end, the analysts said.
"Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk," they said.
The Wall Street titan has been one of the most consistently bullish and high-profile voices on bullion in recent years, and the tweaked target represents a slight shift in tone. Among a string of positive calls, the bank in late 2024 advised investors to "go for gold," correctly predicting a major rally.
The precious metal has struggled in recent months as the war in the Middle East initially lifted energy prices, boosting expectations for tighter monetary policy. This week, while the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged, policymakers signaled growing support for hikes this year. At the same time, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh vowed to restore price stability.
The cut to the outlook was driven by a lower forecast for inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds after the bank's economists pushed back expectations for US rate cuts to June and December of next year, the analysts said. Previously, reductions were seen in December 2026 and March 2027.
In addition, concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "surprisingly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Warsh's leadership, they added. Warsh was appointed by President Donald Trump, who elevated him after repeatedly lashing out at his predecessor for not slashing rates enough.
If the Fed were to hike, "demand for gold as a macro policy hedge could unwind more persistently," with prices at $4,400 by year-end, the analysts said.
Modern Wars Cannot Be Won Without Kamikaze Drones, Paris Defense Show Makes Clear
One of the world's largest defense and security trade shows is wrapping up this week near Paris at the Paris Nord Villepinte exhibition center, where equity analysts from Paris-based Kepler Cheuvreux attended the event.
Eurosatory focuses mostly on land and air-to-land warfare, including tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, drones, counter-drone systems, missiles, air defense, communications, battlefield software, logistics, robotics, military medicine, and homeland security systems.
Kepler Cheuvreux equity analyst Aymeric Poulain attended the event and spoke with top executives from European defense giants Thales, Exosens, Leonardo, Hensoldt, and Rheinmetall. He also met with Safran executives at the company's headquarters.
Poulain penned a note on Thursday titled "Game of Drone," in which he was able to "take the pulse of the sector" to determine the "latest product trends."
He said European defense sentiment remains firmly bullish, with Eurosatory underscoring enthusiasm among investors and industry interest in drones, counter-drone systems, missiles, lasers, and unmanned platforms.
The war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East have accelerated this defense shift, demonstrating how low-cost drones, autonomous systems, and robotic platforms are increasingly dominating the modern battlefield and forcing legacy defense primes to adapt their portfolios at lightning speed.
Poulain's summary of what he saw at the defense show:
1. We accompanied a group of investors at the Eurosatory trade show for the defence and security industry in Paris early this week. The show was an occasion to meet with Thales, Exosens, Leonardo, Hensoldt and Rheinmetall and take the pulse of the sector and the latest product trends. We also met Safran at their headquarters. This always proposes a sample of our notes from the visit.
2. The atmosphere was buoyant amidst booming times for European defence. One of the most striking features of the show was the prominent display of drones and counter-drones, both as an add-on to incumbent core portfolios or as the core product for defence tech players. The Ukraine delegation came in force this year (even as the country is not allowed to export its production yet), underlining the significant use of drones and unmanned equipment, including underwater unmanned systems, in combat operations in the country. We talked to one of the association's representatives and were shocked to hear that production, which was 2m last year and was expected to reach 4m this year, is actually on track to reach 7m by the end of the year! It is no wonder, therefore, that the so-called "kill zone" has widened from 5km at the beginning of the war to 50km by now and that the "kill rate" is now averaging 400K Russian troops per year, a staggering demonstration of the law of large numbers. Ukraine has banned exports, such that its entire stock of weapons is aimed at supporting the war effort, but a strong presence at the salon shows that Ukrainian arm m
3. The presence of drones, missiles and counter-drones solutions was ubiquitous, be it as a new add-on to incumbent platforms and kits or as a hardware derivative of defence tech players (such as Shield AI, Harmattan AI, Destinus, Quantum Systems or Helsing). The use of laser solutions (e.g., EOS) to neutralise drones or satellites was another demonstration of how science is now turning fiction into reality and how every incumbent is adapting their portfolios to the unassailable and rapid evolution of technology and modern warfare
Key summaries of Poulain's conversation with top executives from top EU defense firms:
Thales
• At Thales, we met the head of North America and Louis Igonet, head of IR. As the trade show is mostly dedicated to land-based solutions, our visit was an occasion to discuss the exposure of Thales to this field, including Thales' integrated command & centre solutions, drone and counter-drone products, as well as electronic warfare capabilities (high energy microwave solutions).
• Air defence is on top of the agenda when it comes to defending Europe, including radars, integrated multi-domain modular command & control solutions (SkyDefender), secured communications, missiles, etc. Thales is not as exposed to effectors as other defense companies, but is well positioned to gain in counter-drone with low-cost effector solutions to neutralize drones. The evolution of the battlefield has seen the ascent of drone warfare and defence tech. Thales believes its AI and sensor capabilities give it a license to operate in this highly competitive segment. The deal announced with Renault to join forces to manufacture 1000 Toutatis drones per month was announced just before the show. At USD 30K per unit, the drone's accuracy is said to rival cheaper drones (at USD 1000 per unit) whose swarms may need 20-50 units to hit. The group noted that anti-tank missile demand is shrinking, but overall demand for missiles is growing. Thales is an equipment supplier to platforms and is therefore platform agnostic and indifferent about the future of armoured vehicle platforms. Whether it is unmanned or manned, the group is selling the same growing amount of sensors and radars, while it is also increasing its share of low-cost munitions. Thales is exposed to the Patriot missile as a supplier of seekers to Boeing and expects a 3-4x increase in demand from this customer. This is on top of its own anti-ballistic missile system, the SAMP/T NG, whose growth prospects are excellent and first export versions are expected to be delivered to Denmark from 2028E, hence the view that missile seekers could grow from a few hundred million euros to a billion-dollar business in the not-too-distant future. The group defined itself as a tech company given its giant EUR4bn+ R&D budget. Current priorities include Cybersecurity, AI and Quantum technologies. Some 1000 engineers are dedicated to applied AI to improve the prowess of its sensors and radars. Similarly, the group leadership in quantum technologies enables the creation of much more efficient and less power-hungry radar systems.
• Order intakes continue to be strong and above expectations with jumbo platform orders (SAMP/T NG and Rafale) expected this year, while much smaller orders (below EUR 10 m) still represent the bread and butter of the group. European orders dominate. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, as 65%+ of the group revenues come from the region, which also happens to be the most dynamic worldwide and benefit from lending facilities that promote European-made equipment buying. In Germany, the group is mostly exposed to the Maritime domain, having won the electronic lead role in the Frigate 126 programme, while it is also gaining ground on radars and communications, notably as part of Germany's EUR 11bn shipment of military goods to Ukraine. However, as a global Franco-British defence contractor, possible delays in the British budget are not seen as a major risk, especially as it should be more than offset by France's LPM EUR 36bn top-up plan, which parliament should vote on and sign soon. Thales is also hopeful to get a growing share of the growing Canadian pie, as the country is trying to reduce its reliance on the US. The group recently booked a EUR 400m (AUD750m) contract in Australia for 268 next-generation Bush Master vehicles. In the US, the group is a leader in communication and secured radio com (along with L3Harris), sonars (world leader), avionics (modest), missile electronics and optronics sensors. The ambition is to double the US business by 2030. Thales has been present in the Middle East for at least 50 years, such that the recent developments in the region are likely to be a positive for the company, which also assembles radar in the UAE. Some 10% of revenues stem from the region, and recent urgent operating requests suggest that orders in the coming year could boost growth.
• The group has also built capacity ahead of the demand, hence its capacity to deliver off-the-shelf, which has been behind its recent double-digit revenue growth momentum and should continue to support both record-breaking orders and revenue growth. Supply chain is performing well, even if the group continues to be vigilant on PCBs. In that regard, Thale is building its own internal capacity. Inflationary pressures in the memory space are covered by indexation clauses.
• M&A is always part of the capital allocation toolbox at Thales, although the group is clear that the goal is not to add a new leg to the portfolio and that it first needs to prove the merit of the Imperva acquisition (which we believe it will, as organic growth is set to recover as the year progresses in the key cybersecurity segment). The Space carve-out means that Space will be looking at its own acquisition as a deconsolidated JV, therefore focusing attention on defence and avionics. The Bromo merger talks are ongoing and focus on convincing social partners and anti trust authorities, while giving the time to Airbus to complete its own carve out. That said, the market opportunity for Space is growing amidst rising EU and ESA budgets.
Exosens
• We had a chance to meet Jerome Cerisier, CEO of Exosens and Laurent Sfaxi, head of IR, who showcased the latest innovations fuelling the group's strong organic growth at the moment.
• The group's infrared thermal imaging solutions (part of D&I) have been in high demand and a key driver of upgrades lately. The product includes both large high-ticket surveillance cameras (a few hundred sold per year at EUR 100K+ a unit) and smaller thermal sensors used in higher volumes by the drone industry (delivering batches of 10k unit orders), the group claiming a dozen clients in this field. Part of its success has been its presence in Europe (the main competitor is Teledyne) and its agile integrated solution. Scale is not an issue, and gross margins are comparable to Amplification.
• In Amplification, the group showcased its bread and butter 4G tubes (used by Theon's binocular NVS), sold at EUR 2400 per unit on average ("between EUR 2000 and EUR 3000) as well as its latest resolution 5G tubes, whose resolution is 35% better and price tag probably 20-25%+ better too. The group is on track to produce 6,000 5G tubes this year, with growth driven by yield improvements rather than additional capacity, in line with the existing plan to reach 175,000 tube capacity by 2028E.
• Geographically, Europe is where the highest growth can be seen, although the growing presence of Asian delegations on the show underlined the growing demand expected from countries such as Japan and Korea, the latter likely to be slower-moving than the former.
• Civil activities at D&I are also enjoying a turnaround of sorts. The semiconductor industry is booming, and demand for non- destructive wafer testing solutions should be benefiting. Life sciences remain complicated, but demand for nuclear gamma ray monitoring devices is starting to take off on the back of the growing interest for SMRs, notably in the US. The group is supplying half of the projects that have been selected in the US and sees "very, very strong growth" as a result, albeit for a low base, in a small niche market shared between Exosens and Mirion Technologies.
• M&A remains on the agenda, the group having commented that the size of its next deals could be bigger than in the past. Although multiples have definitely increased in defence, management has not seen a material inflation of multiples for civil dual- use tech application targets, as it tends to pursue.
Leonardo
• Our meeting with Leonardo was shortened and did not bring anything new to our understanding of the story, which was covered most diligently by Matteo Bonizzoni.
• Order intakes were a record EUR 9bn in Q1, which compares with a EUR 25bn guidance for the year. This included a big helicopter order from the UK (GBP1bn).
• Iveco's consolidation details will be provided in Q2.
• A new CEO took over. Aer 35 years at the company, he knows the business well and would effectively mark a continuation of the strategy set by his predecessor.
• A deal in Aerostructure is no longer realistic this summer.
• However, the group is confident in delivering on its guidance.
• The Middle East is 8% of revenues and growing. Leonardo expects strong demand to come from the region.
• The GCAP is difficult, given the ongoing funding constraints. Yet, it received its first international order. So the program is progressing even if not fully funded.
• The 22.8% stake in Hensoldt is currently looked at as an industrial partner. However, as it is clear that there is no chance for Leonardo of getting control, the group is discussing how to leverage the stake industrially at the moment, but could also eventually decide to realise the value of its stake through a financial sale if no synergies can be found
Hensoldt
• Hensoldt showcased its TRML 4D and Spexer radars, which are in high demand and currently expanding production with a view to doubling capacity from 15 in 2025, estimated at 20 in 2026, to 30 TRML 4D radars in 2027E.
• Although the group's revenues and order intakes are dominated by Germany and other NATO countries (10 Skyshield countries have opted for TRML 4D radars), the group would expect Middle East demand (a low single-digit percentage of group revenues) to double over time.
• Growth should be strong this year, while the book-to-bill of 1.5-2x highlights the strength of the current order momentum, but also the lumpiness necessitating quite a range of absolute outcomes (EUR3.8-5bn order). The group expects to receive EUR 1bn orders for new Pegasus surveillance aircra or Luwes jamming systems, whose exact timing remains uncertain.
• The end of the FCAS is not a concern to Hensoldt, which expects an alternative to the programme. Meanwhile, the group would expect to reallocate a third of the 150 engineers working on the project to other R&D priorities. Paid for R&D accounted for 15% of group revenues last year.
• The stock has derated on macro considerations and ceasefire concerns, but ramping up production to meet a fast-growing backlog of multi-domain sensors and optronics solutions secures the strong 15-20% top line growth outlook earmarked at the CMD last year.
Safran
• We met the Safran IR team at their headquarters aer our visit to Eurosatory.
• The company presented last week its Defence ambitions in Montlucon. We encourage our readers to refer to our site visit note for more details on the very strong prospects offered by Defence for Safran and the confidence we have in the group's ability to continue to surprise in its Propulsion Civil aermarket business, making the stock still one of our highest conviction ideas in the aerospace & defence sector.
• The group's defence portfolio contributed c.20% of revenues in 2025, of which half was attributable to Propulsion (or EUR3.1bn last year) and the rest to Equipment & Defence (or EUR 3.2bn last year).
• In the propulsion, some 10% of revenues stem from Military Engines, notably the M88 engine deliveries and aermarket revenues, whose delivery rates are set to double by 2029. This does not include the possibility of new Rafale orders; the group is awaiting the signature of the 114 Rafale jet Indian contract (FCF guidance not including such jumbo deals). Meanwhile, Safran Propulsion is benefiting from the booming missile demand (EUR0.4bn revenues), which already tripled between 22-25E but is on course to grow by 7x by 2028. Safran is on board 10 missile platforms (with MBDA, Kongsberg and Saab in particular) and is currently in discussion with US missile makers. Another 5% of the group's Propulsion revenues is directed at military Helicopters, whose business is heavily split between aermarket and new turbine deliveries. Margin-wise, the group is not commenting on the contribution by the sub-segment other than the fact that the growth in military propulsion is not expected to be dilutive to the propulsion margins.
• The group's defence segment in Equipment & Defence is enjoying very strong demand for its Hammer guiding kits, recently illustrated by a key ballistic missile win. Here, the group has seen demand grow 5-6 fold over the last three years with continued very strong momentum, hence investments to triple production. Order intakes grew by + 60% last year, pointing at least high teens growth for Safran Defence Electronics Defence segment by the end of the decade, from 17% CAGR reported between 22- 25E. 80% of the order book is international and platform agnostic, while the group is capable of covering the entire spectrum from highly sophisticated programs to more affordable mass customers. In Equipment & Defence, the outperformance of defence is set to be margin accretive and a key reason why management is confident it can increase margin to mid-teens.
• Outside defence, the equity story remains dominated by the group's core Civil Propulsion business, which accounts for 80% of its Propulsion business, of which 68% is narrow-body engines (CFM56 and LEAP), and 12% comes from wide-body. Growth in Civil Aermarket Propulsion was very strong in Q1, including 29% for Spares and 40% for Services. Growth in Spares was not driven by the growth of shop visits, although a growing portion of LEAP shop visits are done by third-party MRO (up from 10% to 15% of total, on 30% shop visit growth expected this year, suggesting a doubling of LEAP third-party spares demand). That said, the bulk of spares growth is explained by CFM56, whose shop visit growth is now flat and pricing gains amount to 5-7%, thereby highlighting the importance of workscope effects, which are growing faster in 26E than in 25E, a phenomenon that could prevail until the end of the decade in line with the ageing fleet and the growing number of 2nd shop visits that tend to consume 60% more parts than the first ones (albeit the average varying given the fact that some spare part replacements are mandatory while others are at the discretion of the airlines). Another for the 3rd shop visits that typically compete on price with the second material, they are also set to contribute more, as there is no stock of the second spare part and as power generation players now buy a growing number of retired engines. Retirement rates of CFM56 have been below the planned 2% this year (at c.1-1.5%) and could continue to be below the 3-4% expected in the coming years, as airlines have so far not changed their behaviour, probably on the assumption that the oil shock would be temporary. Safran has not seen slot cancellation or deferrals as companies do not want to be caught off guard should a reopening of the Hormuz Strait opens soon (likely if a deal is signed this week end in our view and as suggested by the sharp fall in oil prices) pointing to another strong quarter in Q2 and very strong confidence in delivering low teen CAGR in revenues and EBIT for Propulsion between 25-28E (at 22-24% margin), driven by CFM56 and LEAP . If growth offers visibility on the back of planned shop visits and pricing power, the margin band is mostly a reflection of mix question marks and the likely normalisation of spare engine ratios in the LEAP engine delivery mix (expected to be 10-12%). There is upside to margin, though, as tariffs paid last year may be refunded this year, although this may simply compensate other inflationary effects.
• Outside the sensitivity of airline traffic and balance sheet to the macro, Safran USD hedging stands at 1.13 until 2028E, such that the risks to group assumptions appear limited to the French corporate tax surcharge (assumed at EUR 475m this year and not recurring next year), although cash flow assumptions remain prudent as they do not assume the possibility for large order advance payments in defence.
• Divestments from Cabin are gathering pace, as the group is expecting stronger prices in Seats to boost revenues and profit margins in the coming year and beyond. Cabin has more limited upside and is set to rebound to HSD margin, hence the decision to exit. Divestment is complicated by AIFR's keenness to secure supply and therefore prefers industrial solutions.
How to profit:
Related but stateside:
- Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle
JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms
Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As 'War Unicorns' Reshape Defense Tech
"Flying Beer Cooler": Pentagon's Next Kamikaze Drone Ushers In Era Of Cheap Mass-Produced Airpower
Opening Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed After Israel-Lebanon Clashes
Talks between Iran and the US were postponed on Friday in Switzerland, delaying what was supposed to be the opening round of negotiations towards a permanent peace and nuclear deal.
The delay appears to center on a new escalation between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, a troubling development that threatens the fresh interim deal signed by President Trump and Iran just days ago. Tehran has insisted that a ceasefire in Lebanon is part of the interim deal, meaning the Israel-Hezbollah front could derail the US-Iran diplomatic path to a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Financial Times provided more details on the overnight development:
Talks between Iran and the US in Switzerland were postponed due to Israel launching a wave of deadly air strikes on southern Lebanon, according to three people familiar with the matter.
Iran did not send a delegation to Switzerland for the nuclear talks because of the attacks, the people said. The interim agreement signed by the US and Iran on Wednesday stipulates the "immediate and permanent termination" of fighting, including in Lebanon.
A diplomat familiar with the Switzerland talks told the outlet:
The Iranians have asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end, as outlined in the signed agreement, and mediators are currently working to resolve the issue.
According to other FT sources, Iran's position is effectively "no Lebanon, no deal," arguing that it has restrained Hezbollah while Washington has failed to restrain Israel.
Israeli airstrikes across more than 10 villages in southern Lebanon killed 18 people and wounded 33, according to Lebanon's health ministry.
⭕️WATCH: A Hezbollah launcher firing rockets toward IDF soldiers
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 19, 2026
In response to Hezbollah’s repeated & blatant ceasefire violations, the IDF struck 2 Hezbollah command centers in the Beqaa Valley, 80+ terror targets in southern Lebanon and eliminated dozens of Hezbollah… pic.twitter.com/NntfHM87vd
Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel's national security minister, reacted on X to the latest fighting in Lebanon:
For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn! With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration. I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don't win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.
Drop Site provided more color on the canceled talks:
- Al Mayadeen report earlier today that Iran's delegation suspended its trip to Geneva due to ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon.
- A White House spokesperson later said Vice President JD Vance, head of the US delegation, also canceled his planned trip to meet Iranian negotiators and begin talks on negotiating and implementing the postwar framework
- Reuters reported the delegation had been preparing to launch the first round of the agreement's 60-day negotiations. Tehran had previously told Washington and mediators that developments in Lebanon would be a key factor in whether talks proceed.
Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousaf wrote on X, "Pakistan has called back its advance team from Switzerland, throwing the next round of Iran-US talks into uncertainty."
He added, "With Tehran seemingly reluctant to engage at a European venue, diplomatic sources say Islamabad or Doha is now the most likely destination for the next round of negotiations."
Beyond the overnight fighting in southern Lebanon, the takeaway is that the interim deal still gives Washington and Tehran a 60-day ceasefire window, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz and creating a framework for eventual talks on Iran's nuclear program.
The problem now is that both sides need to control their proxies and allied partners. Tehran must keep its Hezbollah fighters restrained, while the Trump administration must keep its Israeli ally from escalating in Lebanon. Without that dual restraint, the 60-day ceasefire window could collapse.
Gabbard Drops Fauci Covid Receipts: He Funded Research, Cooked Cover Story, Lied To Congress
Newly declassified documents released Thursday by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard show that a U.S. national laboratory assessed the COVID-19 lab-origin hypothesis as a serious possibility as early as May 2020, as well as evidence of U.S.-funded coronavirus research that included planning for spike-protein modifications, receptor-adaptation experiments, and testing in humanized mice in collaboration with researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
The documents also prove that Anthony Fauci lied under oath.
The release, issued on Gabbard’s last day on the job, includes an eight-page May 27, 2020, assessment from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Z Program. That assessment concluded that “all of the necessary conditions for an accidental release of a laboratory-modified coronavirus - specifically a coronavirus adapted to recognize human cell receptors - were present at the Chinese Wuhan Institute of Virology in mid-to-late 2019.” It assigned equal weight to a laboratory-modification hypothesis and a natural-origin scenario.
Meanwhile, Recall that while the government was locking us down, Dr. Anthony Fauci and those in his orbit were actively fabricating a 'wet market' narrative that would conceal US research as a possible origin - despite his own advisors initially insisting that COVID-19 looked manmade.
In his January 2024 transcribed interview, Fauci was asked about conversations concerning the same three topics - COVID origins, WIV, and EcoHealth. When asked about the CIA, he answered yes: he said he was briefed “once or twice” in a secure NIH facility and also recalled a briefing in a White House situation room.
The newly released documents then show a June 4, 2021 briefing involving CIA/WCP personnel, NSC officials, and Fauci, during which Fauci offered views on pangolin research, sick WIV researchers, single-lineage vs. multi-lineage evidence, and recommended scientists for the IC to contact. A separate CIA-context email says that same 40-minute secure video teleconfrenece involved CIA/WCPMC officials and that Fauci gave thoughts on the 4 May 2021 COVID-origin briefing and recommended U.S. scientists to consult.
So, he lied.
According to a statement released with the files, "Fauci worked with politicized career leadership in the Intelligence Community (IC) to suppress the truth about his actions, the virus’ lab-leak origins, and his role in directing U.S. funding for this dangerous research that caused immeasurable harm and countless lost lives. These documents expose Fauci’s direct role in influencing and manipulating IC assessments on COVID-19, and how Fauci lied to Congress in 2024, when under oath he denied knowledge of or participation in discussions with intelligence officials about viral research."
U.S.-Funded Research and Planning for Coronavirus Manipulation
The files include the Year 5 progress report for EcoHealth Alliance’s NIH grant 5R01AI110964-05. Under Specific Aim 3, the project outlined plans to:
- Sequence spike genes from bat coronaviruses.
- Create mutants to assess how much further evolution would be needed for efficient use of human ACE2 or other receptors.
- Conduct receptor-mutant pseudovirus binding assays.
- Perform infection experiments in cell lines and humanized mice.
This research track overlaps with work described in the 2018 DEFUSE proposal, which involved EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina, and Shi Zhengli’s team at WIV. The proposal sought to create chimeric bat coronaviruses with enhanced human infectivity, including consideration of furin cleavage site insertion to improve lung-cell entry, and to test the resulting viruses in humanized mice originally developed in Baric’s lab.
A 2016 WIV paper included in the release describes a synthetic shuttle vector system for assembling large DNA fragments, with demonstrated capability up to 31 kilobases. The authors presented the method as a tool for “genome-scale DNA reconstruction,” a technique relevant to synthetic biology and virus engineering.
Surveillance work under the same NIH grant reported that 9 of 1,497 rural residents in southern China (0.6%) were seropositive for bat SARS-related or HKU10 coronaviruses.
And from leaked emails three years ago:
Among other things, the NIH helped fund experiments at WIV that infected genetically engineered mice with “chimeric” hybrids of SARS-related bat coronaviruses in what some scientists have described as unacceptably risky research.
...
Andersen laid them out plainly in an email to Fauci that same evening. “The unusual features of the virus make up a really small part of the genome (<0.1%) so one has to look really closely at all the sequences to see that some of the features (potentially) look engineered,” Andersen wrote in the email. “I should mention,” he added, “that after discussions earlier today, Eddie, Bob, Mike and myself all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory. But we have to look at this much more closely and there are still further analyses to be done, so those opinions could still change.” -The Intercept
Internal Discussions and Awareness of Manipulation Research
A June 8, 2021, internal email in the release references a 2016 New York Academy of Medicine meeting at which Peter Daszak reportedly discussed colleagues in China “manipulating the spike protein on coronavirus to make them more virulent.”
Other 2020–2021 emails show officials debating technical concerns, including references to a DOD report on a “suspicious added furin-site” and FBI reporting containing unusual genetic descriptions. One analyst noted the risk that non-experts could misinterpret technical data while still calling for scrutiny. Another observed that “the IC took direction straight from NIH… the people that funded the Wuhan Lab” and referenced “a complex web of money and politics influencing analysis.”
Picking Their Reviewer
July 2021 emails concerning the selection of outside reviewers for COVID-origin assessments show officials rejecting several candidates for political sensitivity or conflict-of-interest reasons:
- James Clapper was viewed as too politically “hot.”
- Anthony Fauci was flagged due to his position as a “customer” of the assessment through NIH funding ties.
- Michael Morell was considered “too public.”
- Sue Gordon and another individual identified only as “Beth” were also set aside.
And so...
These materials provide primary-source documentation that a U.S. national laboratory assessed a laboratory origin as equally plausible to natural emergence at a time when prominent scientific publications were publicly emphasizing a natural zoonotic source and characterizing alternative hypotheses as conspiracy theories. This includes the February 2020 Lancet letter and the March 2020 Nature Medicine paper “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”, along with subsequent amplification by NIH leadership.
The research details in the declassified grant reports and proposals involved techniques and modifications - spike-protein engineering, receptor adaptation, humanized-mouse testing, and consideration of furin cleavage sites - that later featured prominently in scientific debate over SARS-CoV-2’s characteristics.
Collapsed Lender MFS Said to Have Never Registered £300 Million of Mortgages
A £300 million ($396 million) portfolio of mortgages linked to collapsed lender Market Financial Solutions Ltd. looks to never have been registered with public property records, according to court filings, threatening to complicate lenders’ efforts to establish their claims over the underlying assets.
Twinwin Ltd., a company within the wider network of MFS companies, held the mortgage portfolio, but didn’t appear to register the loans, according to the documents, filed on Thursday as part of a petition to liquidate the company. Registration is generally required to protect a lender’s interest in a property and establish priority over other claims.
MFS collapsed into administration in February 2026 amid massive fraud and financial irregularity allegations.
The company's registered administrative office is currently managed by AlixPartners at 6 New Street Square, London, EC4A 3BF.
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