Stifel sees Alkermes trading modestly higher on ‘decent’ schizophrenia data

Stifel analyst Paul Matteis views this morning’s ALKS 3831 Phase III schizophrenia data as a seven on a scale of one to 10. Most importantly, the drug showed a solid benefit on “weight gain outliers,” a well-documented medical problem that represents a major drawback for olanzapine in the real world, Matteis tells investors in a research note. However, he adds that while ALKS 3831 reduced the odds that a patient would gain at least 10% of their body weight by 40%, the magnitude of the effect size was lesser than the Phase 2 study. Further, patients on the drug still gained a “decent amount of weight, plausibly more than one might observe on other atypical antipsychotics outside of olanzapine,” says Matteis. He expects the stock to trade modestly higher today on the Phase 3 results. The data are “decent/solid,” though not a “game changer,” says the analyst. He sees the drug garnering “some use at the right price.” Matteis keeps a Hold rating on Alkermes. The stock in premarket trading is down 28c to $36.88.

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