Gilead Truvada conversion still looks challenging, says Piper Jaffray

Gilead Sciences reported positive data from the Phase III Discover trial and the efficacy data demonstrated non-inferiority of Descovy to Truvada for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis, Piper Jaffray analyst Tyler Van Buren tells investors in a research note. The analyst, however, believes the numerical improvements appear small and wonders if a year will be enough time to convert the majority of a $2.6B Truvada U.S. sales franchise prior to generic entry in 2021 In order for this conversion to be “exceedingly” successful, the safety advantage needs to be “dramatic” given the anticipated low price of generic Truvada, says Van Buren. He’s still uncertain as to how well it will go and keeps a Neutral rating on Gilead with a $75 price target.

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