Sanofi's Dupixent focus may pay off near $12.5B in peak sales: analysts

Since taking over at Sanofi a year ago, CEO Paul Hudson has made immunology blockbuster Dupixent one of his top priorities—and set some lofty sales goals, too.

The company's focus on the drug is already paying off. In fact, it's set to reach $12.5 billion in peak sales, Jefferies analysts wrote, or about €10.8 billion, beating Hudson's own €10 billion goal.

As of the second quarter, Dupixent is generating about $1 billion every three months. Looking forward, Jefferies figures the med can grow based on further penetration into the atopic dermatitis market—where it’s a market leader—and by posting gains in asthma and numerous other indications, the analysts wrote in a Tuesday note to clients.

In atopic dermatitis, the Jefferies analysts predict the med’s sales could almost double from €3 billion to nearly €6 billion in 2028. That expectation is based on a survey of 25 dermatologists in the U.S., who expect more patients to get treatment over the coming three years.

In asthma, the analysts predict Dupixent’s sales of around €460 million now will reach €2.9 billion by 2028, based on an assumption that 30% of eligible patients will be treated with a biologic. Meanwhile, Dupixent is already approved in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and the med is in late-stage testing for several other diseases. The analysts predict €2.2 billion in peak sales from uses other than asthma and atopic dermatitis.

Altogether, the analysts expect €10.8 billion in peak sales from Dupixent, above consensus estimates of €9.7 billion.

After taking the reins at Sanofi last September, Hudson said new indications and launches in new countries could fuel Dupixent to more than €10 billion in peak sales. Aside from his focus on Dupixent, Hudson launched a cost-cutting initiative aimed at saving €2 billion by 2022.

Further, the drugmaker set out to focus its R&D engine only on “first-in-class" or “best-in-class" drugs, as Hudson puts it. As Sanofi works to advance internal research, the company has been busy scouting and striking deals, recently with its $3.7 billion Principia Biopharma buyout.  

While Dupixent will be the company's "key growth driver" moving forward, Jefferies analysts are also optimistic about the company's flu vaccines, its pipeline and its ability to cut costs. From an investment standpoint, they see Sanofi as the “most compelling” European large pharma company right now.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/sanofi-s-dupixent-focus-will-pay-off-12-5b-peak-sales-from-several-indications-analysts