Presidential Historian: Dropping Biden Won't Help Democrats

 President Biden is under mounting pressure to drop his bid for a second term. In this interview with the Wall Street Journal, American University Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections using his system of "13 keys to the White House," breaks down why Biden still represents the best bet for Democrats.

"American presidential elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength or performance of the White House Party. In other words, it is governance, not campaigning that counts," Lichtman said. "It is still the best bet for Democrats to have Biden stay in the race."

"The 13 keys to the White House are 13 true/false questions pertaining primarily to the strength and performance of the White House party, that when answered true, always favor stability. If six or more of the keys are false, we have earthquakes. If fewer than six are false, we have stability."


"Biden running checks off two keys. Biden stepping aside, they lose the incumbency, and it is not at all clear that there wouldn't be a big party fight," he said.

"Let's assume for a moment that the pressure is so great that Biden has to step aside. Here's what he should do, to preserve the keys and keep the Democrats' best chances alive. He should say, 'For the good of the country, I am making the ultimate sacrifice, I am stepping down from the presidency.' And then Kamala Harris would become president and they would secure the incumbency key. He could then release all of his delegates to Harris to secure the contest key. That's the only situation under which the Democrats would not start out with some keys deficit."

The 13 yes/no keys in the current Biden-Trump race:

If six or more are false, Biden is predicted to lose. Currently two are false and four are undetermined.

[Yes] Incumbent seeking re-election

[Yes] No primary contest

[No] Party mandate

[Yes] Strong short-term economy

[Yes] Strong long-term economy

[Yes] Major policy change

[Yes] No scandal

[No] Charismatic incumbent

[Yes] Uncharismatic challenger

[?] No significant third party

[?] No social unrest

[?] No major foreign/military failure

[?] Major foreign/military success

 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/07/historian_explains_why_dropping_biden_wont_help_democrats.html