The divergence has sparked uncomfortable questions. Has Strategy's leveraged bitcoin strategy stretched the balance sheet too far, threatening its ability to serice debt? Or is the market mistaking temporary pressure for existential risk?

Strategy under fire

On October 27, S&P Global Ratings downgraded MSTR to a B- issuer credit rating, citing the high concentration of bitcoin on the balance sheet, a narrow business model, and limited U.S. dollar liquidity. Critics piled on, claiming the company has transformed from a software firm into a Ponzi-like bitcoin vehicle. Venture capitalist Jason Calacanis urged followers to dump MSTR and buy bitcoin directly, calling Strategy a pyramid scheme. Gold bug Peter Schiff revived his familiar refrain, labelling CEO Michael Saylor a con man. Even the Financial Times joined the dogpile, arguing that Strategy’s lofty rhetoric no longer matches its results.

Such synchronized certainty from skeptics often coincides with sentiment exhaustion, yet the company faces a genuine structural threat: potential declassification by MSCI.

The global index provider is reassessing whether Strategy should remain categorized as an operating company. Given that most of its assets are bitcoin, MSCI may instead classify it as a digital-asset holding vehicle, which could trigger removal from major equity indexes. This would force passive funds to liquidate MSTR positions, potentially unleashing up to $8.8bn in outflows if other index providers follow suit, according to JP Morgan. A decision is expected by January 15.

Regarding JP Morgan, the investment bank has been particularly active in Strategy’s affairs. In July, it sharply raised margin requirements for MSTR trading from 50% to 95%. In its latest report, JP Morgan warned that a potential MSCI reclassification could trigger as much as $8.8bn in forced outflows if other index providers follow suit. The crypto community has reacted angrily, accusing the bank of engineering a targeted attack on MSTR. Rumors (still unverified) suggest that JP Morgan may hold a sizeable short position, prompting some MSTR supporters to call for a boycott of the bank in hopes of reenacting a Gamestop-style squeeze.

Strategy cash reserve reassures markets

The market, however, appears to be reassessing the dangers. After bottoming near $155 on Monday, the stock has rebounded above $180 following the firm’s disclosure of a $1.4bn cash reserve. It was designed to cover 21 months of debt and preferred dividend payments, with plans to extend coverage to 24 months. The reserve, funded through at-the-market equity issuance, signals Strategy’s intent not to deleverage or shrink its exposure, but to maintain its bitcoin accumulation strategy with a sizeable liquidity buffer.

On paper, the company’s balance sheet remains robust: $60.4bn in bitcoin, $8.2bn in debt, $1.4bn in cash, and a market capitalization of $51bn. This means that Strategy’s net bitcoin holdings exceed its equity value by $2.6bn. The market is effectively pricing in extreme levels of risk and assigning zero value to the firm’s legacy software division, which still generates roughly $500m in annual revenue.

Whether driven by risk management or something more targeted, the MSTR selling has become self-reinforcing in the past weeks. Yet Strategy’s rapid liquidity pivot from an S&P downgrade to a multibillion-dollar reserve in just 30 days does not resemble a distressed issuer nearing insolvency. It looks more like a firm preparing to withstand a liquidity siege while traditional finance struggles to define what category it belongs to.

The next inflection point arrives on January 15. If MSCI keeps Strategy in its indexes, today’s panic could be remembered as the moment when sentiment detached from balance-sheet reality. If not, MSTR will face a wave of forced selling—pressure that could strain Strategy’s balance sheet and send shockwaves through the broader bitcoin market.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/strategy-vs-wall-street-the-pressure-point-linking-mstr-and-bitcoin-s-future-ce7d51dfdb8ff62c