Apollo Global Chief Economist Torsten Slok identified 40 economic reports from private data sources that investors can use to gauge the economy during the government shutdown.
The shutdown is expected to last 21 days now, according to prediction market Kalshi.
The reports are:
Consumer spending
1. OpenTable daily data for restaurant bookings
2. Bloomberg daily data for debit card transactions
3. Redbook weekly data for same-store retail sales
4. Federal Reserve weekly data for retail sales (Chicago Advance Retail Trade Summary)
5. STR weekly data for hotel demand (revenue per available room, average daily rate, occupancy rate)
6. The Broadway League weekly data on show attendance
7. Boxofficemojo.com weekly movie theatre visits
8. Statue of Liberty visits from irma.nps.gov
9. US airport arrivals from Customs and Border Protection (CBP)
10. Foreign tourist arrivals from the National Travel and Tourism Office
11. Las Vegas tourism and room nights occupied from Bloomberg
Labor market
1. ADP non-farm payrolls
2. Indeed daily job postings
3. American Staffing Association weekly temp worker staffing index
4. Challenger, Gray & Christmas announced job cuts (total and government)
Inflation
1. US inflation swaps from Bloomberg
2. Imported vs domestic goods prices based on tracking the short-run price impact of U.S. tariffs
3. Price of goods by country of origin (Canada, Mexico, China, US)
4. Prices of goods affected by tariffs
5. WCI weekly container freight rates
6. National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) data on plans to raise selling prices
7. Zillow, Apartment List, and BLS New Tenant Rent Index indicators of housing inflation
8. University of Michigan survey on short-run and long-run inflation expectations
9. Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of consumer inflation expectations
Housing
1. University of Michigan and National Association of Home Builders data on homebuyer and homebuilder confidence
2. National Association of Home Builders data on traffic of prospective homebuyers
3. Redfin data on median days on market for homes for sale
4. Redfin data on new residential listings
5. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) purchase index
6. University of Michigan survey on expected change in home values
Production
1. Federal Reserve and other surveys on corporate capex spending plans
2. Federal Reserve and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey on new orders outlook
3. ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing and services
4. Economic Policy Uncertainty index for trade policy
Consumer sentiment
1. Conference Board data on consumer expectations for business conditions
2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York data on job finding expectations
Financial conditions
1. Bloomberg United States Financial Conditions Index
2. Bloomberg data on weekly bankruptcy filings for companies with over $50 million in liabilities
3. The American Bankruptcy Institute data on Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcy filings
4. Federal Reserve data on weekly loan growth for all commercial banks
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