Humana 2-day rally

Stock Price Jump (Oct 3, 2025): Humana (NYSE:HUM) was trading around $272.05 midday (Oct 3), up over +6.0% on the day [1]. This follows gains on Oct 2, 2025 and reflects a sharp rebound from last week’s pullback.
Medicare Advantage Update: The stock rally was driven by a positive surprise in Medicare Advantage “star” ratings for 2026. Humana revealed that ~20% of its members are in 4+‑star plans (vs. a much lower base), and 14% in 4.5‑star plans (up from 3% in 2025) [2]. Investors cheered this news – Humana shares jumped ~3% on Oct 2 following the announcement [3] and added further on Oct 3.
Shift in Medicare Coverage: Recently, Humana said it will trim its Medicare Advantage footprint (plans in 46 states vs 48 this year, cutting coverage in about 85% of U.S. counties) as the insurer exits less‑profitable markets amid rising costs [4] [5]. This sector-wide pullback (also announced by CVS/Aetna and UnitedHealth) reflects soaring medical costs and government cuts [6] [7].
Financials & Guidance: In Q2 2025, Humana reported $32.39 billion in revenue (+9.6% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $4.51 (Adj EPS $6.27) [8]. The company raised full-year 2025 guidance – now expecting ~$17.00 in adjusted EPS and at least $128 billion in revenue [9]. GAAP EPS guidance was trimmed (to ~$13.77) due to one‑time adjustments [10]. Key metrics: Market cap ~$29.7 billion, forward P/E ~14.3, and dividend yield ~1.4% [11].
Analyst Outlook: Wall Street’s consensus on HUM is cautiously neutral. 21 analysts average a “Hold” rating, with a 12‑month price target around $289 [12]. Price targets range widely ($245 – $344) [13]. Notably, Barclays cut its target to $245 on Oct 3, 2025 [14]. Conversely, some bullish analysts recently raised targets (e.g. Bernstein to $341 on Sept 5).
Market Sentiment: The broader market rallied on Oct 3 amid Fed rate‑cut optimism and U.S. “shutdown” news [15] [16]. Healthcare stocks led gains (+1.3% on the S&P), with Humana among the top performers (+5.6%) [17]. Investors appear to be rewarding the Medicare updates and improved guidance, though volatility remains high (14 moves >5% in past year [18]).

As of midday Oct 3, Humana shares were $272.05, up about +6.01% on the day [19]. Yesterday’s close (Oct 2) was $256.62 [20], so HUM has recovered much of last week’s slide. In fact, Oct 1 saw a ~5% drop (on news of scaling back Medicare Advantage plans) [21], but Oct 2’s star rating news spurred a ~3% gain [22]. By Friday morning, industry data show HUM stock as one of the S&P 500’s top gainers (+5.6%) [23]. Year‑to‑date Humana is roughly flat, trading ~19% below its 52-week high (~$312 in Sept 2025) [24].

https://ts2.tech/en/humana-hum-stock-skyrockets-on-medicare-news-what-investors-must-know-today/