Kalshi now sees government shutdown lasting nearly 21 days, second-longest in U.S. history

 Prediction market Kalshi now sees the U.S. government shutdown lasting almost 21 days, which would tie it with the second-longest in U.S. history. The shutdown entered its fifth day on Sunday, though Wall Street has appeared to be largely unfazed, hitting new record highs this week. 

According to Kalshi, the odds of the shutdown lasting more than 15 days have now increased to 64%. The odds of the duration being more than 20 days stand at 50%, and the odds of the duration spanning more than 25 days are at 40%.  

Meanwhile, on prediction market Polymarket, the odds of the shutdown lasting 30 or more days ticked up slightly to 23%. The odds of the shutdown ranging between 10 and 29 days rose to 68%.

The longest shutdown in U.S. history was from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown had cost the American economy an estimated $11B.

See below a chart detailing U.S. shutdowns since 1990:

U.S. government data

The latest shutdown came into effect at midnight on Wednesday after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a federal funding deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday told CNBC that U.S. GDP growth could take a hit from the shutdown. 

Wall Street has largely shrugged off the shutdown, with the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) scaling all-time peaks this week and hitting the 6,700 points mark for the first time ever.  

Here are some exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500: (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NYSEARCA:VOO), (NYSEARCA:IVV), (NYSEARCA:RSP), (NYSEARCA:SSO), (NYSEARCA:UPRO), (NYSEARCA:SH), (NYSEARCA:SDS), and (NYSEARCA:SPXU).  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/kalshi-now-sees-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-21-days-second-longest-in-u-s-history/ar-AA1NTR6j