Kalshi now sees U.S. shutdown lasting for 26 days as Trump not looking to talk on ACA subsidies

 Prediction market Kalshi sees the U.S. government shutdown lasting 19.6 days, down from ~22 days on Monday, as President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he is willing to have discussions with Democrats over health care as a way to end the federal government shutdown.

A key reason for the shutdown is that Democrats are opposed to the Republicans' plan not to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits for 2026. If that were to happen, many individuals who obtain their health coverage through state insurance exchanges are likely to face drastically higher premiums without the subsidies.

According to Kalshi, the chances of the shutdown lasting more than 15 days slipped to 62%, while odds of it stretching past 25 days stood at 35%. 

Meanwhile, on prediction market Polymarket, the odds of the shutdown lasting 30 or more days slipped slightly to 26%. The odds of the shutdown ranging between 10 and 29 days were at 67%. 

The longest shutdown in U.S. history was from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown had cost the American economy an estimated $11B.

The latest shutdown came into effect at midnight on Wednesday. 

Stock index futures ticked lower on Tuesday, however, largely Wall Street has not been impacted by the shutdown and has shrugged off the concerns related to it. 

Here are some exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500: (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NYSEARCA:VOO), (NYSEARCA:IVV), (NYSEARCA:RSP), (NYSEARCA:SSO), (NYSEARCA:UPRO), (NYSEARCA:SH), (NYSEARCA:SDS), and (NYSEARCA:SPXU).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/prediction-markets-trim-odds-of-prolonged-u-s-shutdown-as-trump-open-to-talks-on-health-care/ar-AA1O0xks