The possibility that Venezuela could eventually restore some of its oil production following the U.S. removal of the country’s leader may add longer-term downward pressure on global crude prices, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group.
In a note published Sunday, analysts said any rebound in Venezuelan output would likely be limited and slow, citing years of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure. Significant gains, they added, would require strong incentives to attract large-scale upstream capital.
The assessment comes after the United States carried out a military operation over the weekend that led to the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and a pledge by Washington to oversee a political transition. Venezuela was once a major oil producer, but output has steadily eroded over the past two decades.
Goldman left its 2026 oil price outlook unchanged, forecasting average prices of $56 a barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate. Oil futures slipped at the start of the week, with Brent trading near $61 a barrel.
Analysts warned that the prospect of higher Venezuelan supply in the longer term adds to downside risks for prices beyond 2027, particularly when combined with recent production growth in Russia and the United States.
U.S. President Donald Trump said after Maduro’s detention that American oil companies were prepared to invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector. Goldman noted, however, that Venezuela’s current production levels remain far below historical norms.
At its peak in the mid-2000s, Venezuela produced roughly 3 million barrels per day. Output fell to about 930,000 barrels per day in November and may have declined further following recent production shut-ins, the bank said. Storage constraints worsened after the U.S. imposed partial restrictions on tanker traffic ahead of the operation.
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