Polymarket traders fume on refusal to settle bets worth $10m on Venezuela invasion — 'Cannot change rules'

 Prediction platform Polymarket is facing backlash after refusing to settle contracts betting on whether the U.S. would “invade” Venezuela, following a special forces operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday.

Bets worth around $10.7 million are currently tied up in the disputed contracts, leaving bettors furious and reigniting questions around transparency and governance in the largely unregulated prediction market industry.

'Raid Doesn’t Meet Its Threshold'

Polymarket said it would only resolve the “Will the US invade Venezuela?” bet if the U.S. commenced a military offensive aimed at establishing territorial control by one of the three specified dates. 

While U.S. forces extracted Maduro from his Caracas compound in a covert raid, the platform ruled that the action did not qualify as an invasion under its terms.

Prices briefly surged following the operation but collapsed below 5% after Polymarket declined to settle the contract.

Following the operation, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would dictate Venezuela's future policies through remaining leadership— comments that further muddied perceptions of whether the action constituted a de facto invasion.

“President Trump’s statement that they will ‘run’ Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion,” Polymarket says on its website.

That distinction sparked online fury among traders.

“Then what the **** would be an invasion?” one user wrote in the comments section.

Another said: “Sue polymarket. Class action lawsuit. Financial fraud. Make a new market called “Will Polymarket get sued by..?”

The controversy follows revelations that an anonymous trader earned over $400,000 betting on the timing of Maduro’s removal from power. The account, created just days before the operation, placed a series of highly profitable wagers across multiple Venezuela-related markets, often when odds implied a low probability of success.

The timing has also reignited concerns that traders may be exploiting non-public or insider information, with the trades tracking platform Sonar Pro saying the Venezuela bettor could be a geopolitical insider.

“Words are redefined at will,” wrote another Polymarket user, while another said, “You cannot change rules in the middle of the game, polyscam.”

Polymarket did not immediately respond to Benzinga‘s request for comment.

Regulatory Scrutiny Ramps Up

The episode comes as Polymarket has only recently received approval to operate legally in the US. lawmakers are now watching closely.

Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to propose legislation this week that would bar insiders from trading on prediction market contracts tied to sensitive political or military events.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/polymarket-traders-fume-as-prediction-platform-refuses-to-settle-bets-worth-over-10-million-on-us-invasion-of-venezuela-you-cannot-change-rules/ar-AA1TJ9NG