AwesomeCapital: Merck beats Q1 2026 estimates and raises 2026 guidance despite $9B Cidara charge

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Q1 2026 non-GAAP loss was $1.28 per share, narrower than the -$1.47 analyst estimate.
Non-GAAP EPS of -$1.28 was down 158% YoY in Q1 2026.
Q1 2026 revenue grew 5% YoY to $16.3B, driven by oncology, cardiometabolic and Animal Health strength.
KEYTRUDA franchise rose 8% to $8B; new subcutaneous QLEX launch reached $128M in Q1.
WINREVAIR posted $525M, reinforcing its role as a major new growth driver.
GARDASIL fell 22% to $1.1B, with notable demand weakness in China and Japan.
OHTUVAYRE sales were $131M, pressured by CMS reimbursement changes but prescriptions recovered in March.
Non-GAAP gross margin was 81.9%, down 0.3 pts; EPS was -$1.28 including a $9B Cidara charge.
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised at the midpoint to $65.8–$67.0B (1–3% growth).
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance increased to $5.04–$5.16, excluding the pending Terns acquisition impact.
Management highlighted over 20 early-launch products, each with ‘blockbuster potential,’ to diversify beyond KEYTRUDA.
Upcoming Phase III data and regulatory events across oncology, HIV, cardiometabolic and ophthalmology are key 18‑month catalysts.
Main concern: execution and reimbursement risks around new launches plus earnings volatility from large business development charges.

AwesomeCapital