Goldman Breaks Down Build America 250 Impact On Construction Stocks

 The Build America 250 bill is a proposed transportation infrastructure funding package covering federal projects between 2027 and 2031 and would succeed the Biden-era Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which expires in the coming months.

Goldman analysts, led by Ben Rada Martin, stated that the Build America 250 bill has cleared House committee approval with limited amendments, providing greater clarity around $580 billion for highways, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure.

One main point from the Goldman note is that Build America 250 is not another IIJA-style boom. For the Federal Highway Administration, Martin sees only about an 8% nominal increase relative to IIJA levels, after IIJA delivered a more than 50% federal funding uplift.

Martin pointed out that bridge funding jumped by about 29%, while rail and transit programs face reductions. He expects public highway spending to grow by 6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, though much of that reflects inflation rather than real volume growth. After adjusting for construction cost inflation, he expects flat-to-slightly negative volume trends.

"Nominal uplift, with a mix shift to bridges, transit sees cuts: We go through the 1,000-page draft document and amendments to date, with the recent bill implying a broad continuation in spending with a category mix shift toward bridges (+29%), while rail and transit administrations see cuts," Martin wrote in a note published on Monday.

Highways in detail - Limited expansion, especially net of inflation

Goldman's prediction model indicates that public construction should continue to grow, but at a slower pace after a very strong 2021 to 2025 period.

Martin said the stock impact of the Build America 250 bill on construction-linked companies is viewed as neutral to slightly negative.

Engineering and Construction - Neutral/Mix:

• US (GVA, AECOM, J): We view the bill as broadly net neutral for GVA (diversified civil contractor), as funding implies flat to modest real volume declines. For Jacobs and AECOM (engineering and design firms), we see a modest negative impact, reflecting cuts to rail and transit. While state and local infrastructure accounts for ~25–30% of revenue for both companies, we believe they are relatively overweight transit versus traditional infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, tunnels).
• EU (Ferrovial): The bill is likely to be neutral for Ferrovial's construction division - with Webber and Ferrovial Construction largely exposed to the broad US infrastructure segment, across bridges, highways, waterworks, and energy. When it comes to future infrastructure projects (P3), Ferrovial could benefit from lower government infrastructure spend, given lower crowding out effects increasing private market opportunities and ROI.

Lightside building materials

• (EU - Sika, SGO) - Neutral: Construction Chemicals are used in more complex engineering projects and in greater quantities in infrastructure refurbishment. Hence, we see the uplift in funding towards Bridge renovations as a positive, while see this to be offset by lower funding in transport and transit related categories. Sika is the most exposed with US Infra representing c.7% of Group (GSe).

Heavyside building materials - Neutral/Mixed:

• Cement (EU - Buzzi, Heidelberg, Latam - CX) - Neutral: Cement in our view is relatively project agnostic between bridges and highways. Hence, we see neutral implications, with strong Bridge spend offset by lower transport funding and limited uplift in nominal highway spend.
• Aggregates (EU - Heidelberg, Latam - CX) - Slight negative: Given only a small nominal funding increase for highways (key aggregate end-market), and expectations of continued pricing growth (c. +MSD) and inflation in the category, we believe levels of volume growth may be muted. While other spend categories of growth (Bridges) are less aggregate intensive.

The understanding here is that Build America 250 keeps federal infrastructure spending ongoing, but it should not be viewed as a new infrastructure supercycle.

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