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Sunday, August 5, 2018

AT&T Overpaid Some Pensioners. Now It Wants the Money Back


When James Mizelle retired in 2001, he started drawing a pension from his 27-year career with AT&T T 1.21%▲ and other phone companies.
Fifteen years later, he got a letter saying his benefits were miscalculated and demanding he repay $32,116.05. Mr. Mizelle, living in Round Hill, Va., replied that he couldn’t repay. Within weeks, he heard from a collection agency.
“That money had been spent,” says Mr. Mizelle, 70, who had incurred medical bills in a battle with prostate cancer. “I could not pay it back.”
The former programmer and human-resources worker is among potentially hundreds of ex-employees whom AT&T Inc. has dunned in recent years for what it calls pension “overpayments.” AT&T sometimes has enlisted a collection agency to recover the money, a move retiree advocates, pension lawyers and some former Treasury Department officials call unusual.
Among them are 17 retirees from whom AT&T and Fidelity Investments, the pension plan’s record-keeper, have demanded a combined $1 million and who have contacted lawyers working with the Pension Rights Center, a retiree-advocacy nonprofit in Washington, D.C., or related groups around the country, the center says.
An AT&T spokesman says the pension overpayments affect “significantly less than 1/10th of 1%” of its about 517,000 participants, with “a very small percentage” referred to collections. He declines to say how the company identified the errors or how much money is at stake.
A Fidelity spokesman says the firm helped zero in on errors at AT&T’s direction, including some predating Fidelity’s role. AT&T and Fidelity decline to address the individual cases in this article.
Companies for years have been taking measures to recoup pension overpayments, an issue federal tax officials have tried to address going back to the 1990s with a series of refinements to rules governing when and how companies must rectify such errors.
AT&T appears to have gone a step beyond many other large companies by sticking to its demands of full repayment and hiring a collection agency in some cases, even where retirees make the case that they lack the wherewithal to repay.

‘Our approach is common and similar to how most other employers handle this issue,’ says an AT&T spokesman.
Sydney Smith, a former AT&T information-technology analyst living in the St. Louis area, received a letter in July 2016 saying she owed AT&T’s pension plan $19,306.95—money she had received, the company later told her, because she provided a date in the pension-benefit calculation that the plan’s website shouldn’t have let her use.
Ms. Smith says she told Fidelity she didn’t have the money. A single mother, she had cashed out her pension to pay debts and living expenses. “I used it,” says Ms. Smith, 42. “It’s gone.”
She asked about a repayment plan and was told she could make two payments of nearly $10,000 each, she says. She didn’t have that. Days after the plan denied her appeals, Ms. Smith says, she began getting calls from Lyon Collection Services Inc., the same agency that demanded repayment of Mr. Mizelle. “They started to call pretty constantly.”
Ms. Smith enlisted Roger Curme, a lawyer with the South Central Pension Rights Project, a legal-assistance service funded in part by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. “We haven’t seen that before,” Mr. Curme says of a big company’s using a collection agency. “These tactics that AT&T is using…they’re kind of harsh.”
Ms. Smith filed a claim with the plan asking it to waive repayment but was denied. The plan also denied her subsequent appeal. She hasn’t heard from the company since February, she says, and is hopeful she won’t. Yet, she adds, “it’s not resolved—it’s still up in the air.”
Lyon Collection President Rick Mantin says his firm follows laws governing consumer collections and his employees are persistent without harassing customers. He declines to comment on individual cases or clients and says the company doesn’t focus on retirees. “Debtors have the right to request that Lyon cease any further communication with them,” he says, “which we immediately honor.”
In general, pension lawyers say, it is legal for a company to demand back pension overpayments. Pension-plan sponsors and administrators have an obligation to safeguard a plan’s assets. Companies for years have interpreted that obligation to include not just stopping overpayments but also requiring repayment. Often, plans recoup what they can by reducing retirees’ remaining benefits.
“Not recouping the monies would mean that there would be fewer funds available for distribution to other participants,” the Fidelity spokesman says.

Pension lawyers say that in recent years some employers and plan administrators have grown skittish about giving retirees a pass for even small overpayments. They point to Internal Revenue Service guidance that suggested plans had to pursue repayments vigorously or risk losing key tax benefits, such as deductions for employer contributions and tax-free investment returns.
Among companies recently requesting paybacks is Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s U.S. unit, which says that in 2016 it notified several hundred retirees that their pension checks were incorrect. About 300 people, or 0.3% of its pension recipients, received more than they were supposed to, it says.
The company says it followed federal regulations when asking retirees to return overpayments and doesn’t use a collections service. On average, it says, those getting extra payments were receiving benefits of $24,000 a year. Three-quarters of them were asked to repay $3,000 or less. Of the rest, the average recovery the company sought was 3.7% of the retiree’s monthly benefit, and none was more than 8%.
Had they known the correct payment amount, some retirees might have made different life decisions, such as when to retire or where to move, says Jay Kuhnie, president of the National Chrysler Retirement Organization, a retiree-advocacy group. “They might have said, that’s not as much as I thought, I’m going to work another 4 to 5 years,” he says. “The retiree has no way of going back.”
AT&T’s collection agency
AT&T’s pension plans have $45 billion in assets, enough to pay about 77 cents on every dollar of pension benefits earned so far by all current and former employees and retirees for their full life expectancy, as well as other beneficiaries.

Pensions Calling

AT&T’s pension plans have about three-quarters of the assets they need to pay lifetime benefits for its employees, retirees and other beneficiaries.

Lawyers who work with retirees say they rarely see referrals to collections agencies by a large company. Some former Treasury Department officials who worked on recoupment issues say it wasn’t something they had seen before.
“An awful lot of plan sponsors, just as a matter of culture, are not very enthusiastic about chasing down their retirees to recover overpayments,” says Brian Dougherty, co-leader of the plan-sponsor task force at the law firm Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP.
The AT&T spokesman says “our approach is common and similar to how most other employers handle this issue” and follows federal pension rules, treating retirees ethically. The Fidelity spokesman says that “having a third party to assist with contacting plan participants in seeking reimbursement is a common practice among many employers in the industry.”

Faced with complaints from retirees whose pension benefits had been reduced, officials at the Treasury Department and the IRS in 2015 issued new guidance, clarifying that plans could recover funds in other ways instead, including from contractors responsible for errors. Companies could also replace the missing funds themselves, or modify plan rules retroactively to accommodate the overpayments, according to the guidance.
“It clarified that plan sponsors were not always required to recoup inadvertent overpayments and pursue all available legal remedies to do so,” says Mark Iwry, a Treasury Department official from 2009 to 2017 who worked on retirement policy. The guidance “took a step toward making the system more practical, workable, and humane.”
Some pension experts have concluded that overpayments essentially never harm plan finances, says Richard Shea, who advises employers as head of the employee-benefits law practice at Covington & Burling LLP. That’s because employers must set aside enough money to cover a lifetime of benefits based on what retirees actually receive, not some earlier estimate.
“The way the funding rules work, you’ve already got it,” he says. “You don’t have to get it back.”
Telephone-company pensions may be more prone to mistakes than others, thanks to the federal breakup of the Bell System monopoly in the mid-1980s. Often, workers’ pensions accompanied them as they moved among the company’s successors.
An operator’s case
Some errors AT&T identified amount to double-counting, in which retirees received benefits reflecting their full careers plus additional payments reflecting part of the same history.
Eileen Ralston of Daytona Beach, Fla., joined what was AT&T’s Pacific Telephone in 1970 as an operator. She left telephone work in the mid-1980s, then rejoined the new AT&T in 1986 as an operator.
She began collecting her AT&T pension of $921.83 a month soon after leaving in 1999. Shortly before turning 65, she says, she called AT&T’s pension administrators and was surprised to hear she was entitled to another $546.73. “I said, are you sure about this? Because I get an AT&T pension,” says Ms. Ralston, 75. “They said, no, this is your pension for your previous service.”

Just before Ms. Ralston’s September 2017 birthday, Fidelity told her in a letter that the additional benefit was a mistake and that she owed $58,500.11. It was about two years after she suffered a heart attack. “I thought I was going to have another one,” she says. “Every time I get something in the mail from AT&T that says ‘benefits department,’ I get a cold chill up my back.”
AT&T offered to halve her remaining pension to $444.89 a month. After Ms. Ralston consulted a lawyer, she received a letter from AT&T in February reaffirming the debt but adding that “your overpayment information will not be sent to an outside collections agency at this time.”
She hasn’t repaid and worries AT&T might come after her again.
Claudia Jones worked for Bell South and then AT&T for about 16 years, she says, before being laid off in 2015. She took her pension in a lump sum and invested it in an annuity that pays about $600 a month.
In March, she got a letter from AT&T and Fidelity saying her benefit had been miscalculated and that she would have to repay $45,300.17. “Say they did miscalculate,” says Ms. Jones, 66. “We shouldn’t be punished for that.”
In late June, she says, she started receiving calls from Lyon Collection. She can’t afford to pay, she says, and isn’t sure what she’ll do.
AT&T left Mr. Mizelle, too, in limbo. Fidelity in a letter wrote that “the Plan will recover the excess benefit amount by any means that are available.”
He enlisted a lawyer to file a claim with the plan, arguing that he no longer had the additional money and that requiring repayment would cause him financial hardship. The plan rejected his claim.
The committee that denied his subsequent appeal wrote him reiterating the debt but saying it “decided not to pursue further collection attempts of the overpayment amount at this time, without waiving any rights to resume the collection process in the future.”

Asia’s New Stock-Market King Has Strong Profits, BOJ Support


With Japan regaining its place as the second-biggest stock market amid growing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, investors expect the nation’s equities to garner more attention.
Japanese shares were worth $6.15 trillion on Friday compared with just under $6 trillion for Chinese equities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The markets swapped position behind the U.S. for the first time since 2014, making Japan Asia’s biggest stock market.
While Chinese stocks have suffered recently from the country’s ongoing trade spat with the U.S., their Japanese peers have benefited from improved earnings and the Bank of Japan’s annual purchase of up to 6 trillion yen ($54 billion) in exchange-traded funds. Still, market observers are divided over what impact the mounting trade war might have on Japan.
“If China and the U.S. are going to throw bricks at each other’s windows, it pays to be the one that sells glass to both sides,” said Nicholas Smith, an equity strategist at CLSA Ltd. “That’s Japan.”
The Topix index has lost 4.1 percent this year, compared with a 17 percent slide in the Shanghai Composite Index. Nearly 60 percent of companies listed on the Japanese benchmark that have reported earnings so far for the latest quarter have beaten analyst expectations.

Big Beats

“We’ve seen some pretty big beats from some big companies including Sony, Hitachi and Fujitsu. That’s the major driver,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee.
He expects the positive trend in Japanese earnings to continue. First-quarter results suggest room for upward revisions of company guidance, which tend to be conservative at the start of the fiscal year, he said. With many firms basing their forecasts on the yen at 105 per dollar, the current level serves as a tailwind for those sensitive to currency movements, Calder added.
Japan regaining the No. 2 spot calls attention to its “market thrashing consensus earnings forecasts” as well as its relatively appealing valuations, CLSA’s Smith said.

External Economies

Japan remains dependent on external economies such as China and U.S. as well as on a weaker yen, said Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Corporate earnings should remain solid “as long as we see a continuing strong expansion in the U.S. economy, and action by China to support their economy by increasing fiscal spending and easing monetary policy.”

Corporate Governance Enthusiasm

“There is a newfound enthusiasm for corporate governance that is manifesting with announced share buybacks year-to-date being up in value terms by over 25 percent year-on-year,” said CLSA’s Smith. In Japan 58 percent of Topix non-financials are net cash, and “at last shareholders are starting to unlock some of that hitherto trapped value.”
Political stability, an attractive valuation compared with other developed markets and signs of improving corporate governance are fueling Nomura’s optimism on Japan’s equity market, said Nomura Holdings Inc. strategist Jim McCafferty. The firm is overweight on the shares.
The 2014 publication of the stewardship code aiming at encouraging investors to be more forceful in demanding higher returns will lead to companies putting more money to work. As a result, they’ll either expand their business or increase dividends or share buybacks, McCafferty said.

Staying Neutral

“We haven’t changed our Japanese exposure in the last few months, maintaining a neutral exposure,” said Daryl Liew, head of portfolio management at Reyl Singapore Pte. There have been “no real red flags” after “decent” earnings results so far.
“Japan being No. 1 or No. 2 doesn’t effect us at all as we are all about market and sector depth, as well as cheap transparent trading costs, which is something Japan offers well ahead of China,” said Andrew Jackson, head of Japanese equities at Soochow CSSD Capital Markets. “It’s more about volatility for me than anything.”

Re-discovering Japan

“The news will make global investors pay more attention to Japan and that will result in re-discovering the attractions of Japanese companies,” said Hideaki Fukuchi, Asia equity sales at Auerbach Grayson and Co. in New York.
Retaking the No. 2 position was due to not only the better prospects of the Japanese economy but also Japanese companies’ long-term efforts to pursue more advanced technologies, improve corporate efficiency and focus on better corporate governance, Fukuchi said.

Standing desks vs sitting: why sitting ISN’T slowly killing you


You’re *sitting* at your desk working away, deep in flow, when you notice out of the corner of your eye someone staring at you.
Ignoring it at first, you continue to type away at your computer, but as the feeling of staring daggers grows stronger, it gets harder and harder to resist the urge of looking up and seeing who the culprit is.
Finally, you glance away from your screen and lock eyes with Susan in accounting — who is standing upright with perfect posture at her brand spanking new standing desk.
With complete confusion, you raise your eyebrows and mouth “what” — an appropriate response for someone who has felt like a zoo animal for the past fifteen minutes.
She stares at you a little longer, sadly shakes her head and then continues to work.
With growing insecurity you take a moment to ponder what’s going on — then it hits you. You’re sitting.
After a quick WebMD search you realize that at any moment you could drop dead in your office at the young age of 32 — that night you spend a grand on a standing desk.

“Oh, you haven’t heard? Sitting is the new smoking…”

Raise your hand if you’re tired of hearing the fear-inducing phrase — sitting is the new smoking?
Or, perhaps, tired of feeling like you’re minutes away from a date with the grim reaper because you refuse to drop an entire paycheck on a fancy hydraulic, slip resistant, levitating, hydro-cooled standing desk?
I’m not entirely sure when simply sitting in a chair became linked to one hundred and one various life-threatening diseases (like Type 2 Diabetes).
Since a few studies came out that said it might be detrimental to one’s health, standing desks have been flying off the shelves like hotcakes — an ironic comparison considering that one too many hotcakes might result in one developing Type 2 Diabetes — not simply sitting.
In addition to the hotcake argument, a study on the effects of sitting published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine tracked 5,000 folks over the course of thirteen years and found absolutely no correlation between sitting and developing life threatening diseases like diabetes.
However, one Google search on the effects of sitting can leave even the most stable minded individuals panicking.
While neither of us have the time nor energy to pick apart every single argument out there on the effects of sitting, I am going to bring up an another point — standing might have just as many health implications.

Why standing may not be the answer either.

Perhaps what sparked the standing desk movement was a study done a while back that made an extraordinarily bold claim:
Sitting for just three hours a day is responsible for 430,000 deaths across 54 countries.
This is where the solution came into the picture — the standing desk. It seemed logical and perhaps simple enough — the average human drops dead if they sit for more than three hours a day, so they can stand for the other five.
However, recent studies have surfaced that say:
Standing for just two hours a day can lead to swelling in the lower limbs, increased discomfort and a substantial drop in cognitive function and in turn overall productivity.
So… risk dropping dead from sitting or risk losing your job from standing… what’s the answer?
But wait, before you make up your mind, there is more. There was another study published that showed prolonged standing could increase chances of heart diseases due to blood pooling in the legs and increasing pressure in the veins — a worrisome finding considering more than 630,000 people die from heart disease each year in the United States alone.
So, the decision is no longer sit and die or stand and not be productive… but rather… sit and die or stand and die…

Perhaps, we should just concentrate on doing good work and living healthier.

While I’m not a doctor, I suspect all of the buzz around standing desks could potentially be overhyped.
At JotForm, we offer most of our 110 employees both standing and normal desks.
A random photo from JotForm offices
Moderation is good for business and for our bodies.
It isn’t black or white, nor should we abandon one of the two and replace the entire office with the other once a new study suggests the opposite.
We can balance both sitting & standing and keep things in moderation by focusing on our overall diet, exercise habits and overall lifestyle.
In fact, here are a few very simple lifestyle changes I think we should be focusing more of our attention on than fighting tooth and nail over whether or not sitting is going to kill us.
  1. Walk for 30-minutes a day — if you cut your lunch break in half and walk for just 30-minutes each day, you lower your risk of Type 2 Diabetes, Heart Disease and High Blood Pressure. In addition, you sharpen your focus, strengthen your memory and enhance your overall mood.
  2. Drink eight glasses of water a day — by simply drinking enough water each day you lower your risk of developing high blood pressure. Water also strengthens your immune system allowing your white blood cells to better fight colds and flus.
  3. Cut back on fried foods — this goes without saying but eating junk can lead to nasty diseases that have also been associated with “sitting” — heart disease, diabetes and obesity. So, by simply choosing healthier options during your lunch breaks, you’re preventing many of the diseases that sitting supposedly causes.
  4. Develop a daily workout routine — I started my daily workout routine a while back when I was looking to improve my overall health and improve my energy so I could be a better asset to JotForm. After just a few short weeks of working out, I was blown away at the increase I saw in mood, focus and motivation. But, besides helping you from a mental and emotional standpoint, exercising daily can also decrease your chances of developing chronic diseases.

Waymo’s Self-Driving Cars Are Near: Meet the Teen Who Rides One Every Day


For the past year, Kyla Jackson has been one of the only teenagers in the world who gets a ride to high school from a robot.
When she’s ready to start her day, Kyla summons a self-driving car using the Waymo app on her phone. Five minutes later a Chrysler Pacifica run by the autonomous vehicle arm of Google’s parent company, Alphabet Inc., stops at her home in Chandler, Arizona. She slides open the door, fastens her seat belt, and hits a blue button above her head to set the car in motion. It’s a minivan covered in goofy-looking sensors, but it’s the coolest ride at her school.
The Jackson family, along with some 400 neighbors in their Phoenix suburb, are volunteers in an ongoing test of Waymo’s autonomous ride-hailing business, which is expected to launch for paying passengers in the area by the end of the year. The Jacksons, who Waymo made available for this story, have largely ditched their own cars and now use self-driving vehicles to go almost everywhere within the 100 square-mile operating area: track practice, grocery shopping, movies, the train station.
Kyla acts like a diva with a private chauffeur, laughs her mom, Samantha Jackson, in an interview in Chandler last week. Access to robotaxis has even managed to convince this 17-year-old to put off an American rite of passage: getting her driver’s license. As Kyla puts it, “What’s the point?”
All rides are free for volunteers, but the Waymo app recently started to show hypothetical prices. A view of the app by Bloomberg News offers the first indication of Waymo’s early experiments with pricing. A ride to Kyla’s nearby school shows up as $5, for example, while a longer 11.3-mile trip lists a cost of $19.15. That’s similar to the cost of a ride from Uber Technologies Inc. or Lyft Inc.,and cheaper than a local taxi.
A Waymo spokesperson says the placeholder price is a way to solicit feedback from volunteers and “does not reflect the various pricing models under consideration.” It’s certainly got the Jackson family wondering how the service they’ve come to rely on will soon fit into their lives.
“People were like, ‘I don’t know how you get in that. I couldn’t trust a machine like that.’ It’s so opposite to how I’ve come to think about it,” Samantha says of friends’ reaction to her family’s trust in driverless cars. “I can’t think of a time that we’ve ever been honked at.”
Waymo’s Early Rider program in the Phoenix area is the furthest along among the company’s 25 test cities. The Google offshoot has logged more than 8 million miles in fully autonomous mode and is now starting to test cars in Phoenix with no backup safety driver behind the wheel, something the Jacksons have experienced just once. If the public launch is successful, Waymo would be the first autonomous ride-hailing business.
“We’re just getting started,” says Waymo Chief Executive Officer John Krafcik, who spoke with Bloomberg last week at Alphabet’s X lab in Mountain View, California. It’s the semi-secret facility where delivery drones land on the rooftop and engineers in the garage below tinker with Waymo’s next vehicle, an autonomous Jaguar I-Pace.
Krafcik’s goal is to build what he calls “the driver,” an integrated suite of hardware and software that makes self-driving possible, and then to put the technology to work across four areas of transportation: ride-hailing services, trucking, personal vehicles, and public transportation. The strategy leans heavily on partnerships, especially for vehicles.
“Car companies make cars, and that’s what they should do,” Krafcik says. “Self-driving companies should make drivers.”
Waymo has made a lot of moves on the first three of its four priorities. Here’s where things stand:
  1. Ride Hailing: Waymo has reached deals to buy as many as 62,000 plug-in hybrid Pacifica minivans and 20,000 fully-electric I-Pace SUVs to build out its fleet over the next few years. It’s getting ready to launch the first commercial program in Phoenix and is waiting to hear back from California regulators on its application to begin testing without safety drivers in its hometown.
  2. Trucking: Waymo has outfitted several Peterbilt Class 8 semi trucks with autonomous packages. The hardware is exactly the same as what’s used on its Pacifica minivans, and Krafcik says the software is 95 percent similar. The trucks are now hauling equipment among Alphabet facilities in Atlanta, with human backup drivers behind the wheel. Waymo announced talks with Honda Motor Corp. almost two years ago, and in April indicated that the pact would focus on producing a driverless vehicle aimed at delivery and logistics.
  3. Personal Vehicles: Waymo announced that it’s in talks with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV to develop a self-driving personal car. Krafcik says Waymo is also in discussions with “more than 50 percent” of the global auto industry by volume, and the introduction of self-driving cars for personal use will trail its ride-hailing service by “a couple years.”
Waymo’s fourth category is public transportation. On Tuesday, Waymo is announcing a partnership with Valley Metro, the agency in charge of public transportation in Phoenix, to begin shuttling people to and from public transportation. The program will start with Valley Metro employees and expand over time. The pact may later extend to Phoenix’s RideChoice program, which negotiates deals with taxi companies and subsidizes rates. The idea is that, if done right, self-driving cars could increase access to buses and trains in sprawling cities like Phoenix.
“Personal auto mobility has changed the world in some fairly negative ways,” Krafcik says. “We can get the world back to a better place.”
That utopian vision has been undercut by the emerging impact of ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft on mass transit. A new report by Bruce Schaller, a consultant and former traffic-planning official in New York, found that 60 percent of app-based rides drew people away from otherwise using public transportation, biking or walking. For every mile of personal driving replaced by a ride-hailing app, customers added 2.8 miles of driving.
If self-driving cars make ride-hailing cheaper and more convenient, the research suggests, it could take a wrecking ball to public transportation. Strangely, the head of Phoenix’s public transportation agency agrees with that assessment.
“It will absolutely happen,” says Scott Smith, Valley Metro’s CEO. “But I’m not scared, I’m excited. There will be a reduction in bus use, in subway use in some areas, but expanded use in others. This is real. We’ve got to be a part of it.”
Some local bus routes are inefficient, Smith says, carrying just a few passengers in a vehicle built for 40. The partnership with Waymo could instead provide cheap connections to Phoenix’s high-capacity corridors of express buses and light rail. An autonomous car could drop you at one station, and another could arrive just in time to pick you up on the other side of the city. The problem with impact studies that have been conducted so far, Smith says, is that the data available today only captures the negative effects of ride hailing—not the benefits that could come from integrating self-driving cars combined with streamlined public transit.
The partnership between Waymo and Phoenix’s mass-transit system will last up to two years. In the next three to six months, the program will expand to include pickups for people with disabilities. The city typically spends $25 to $50 to subsidize those rides, and working with Waymo could be a way to cut costs and expand service.
“There are no rules other than let’s be safe, let’s learn, and let’s share data,” Smith says.
The experience of riding in a Waymo is surprisingly mundane. The robotaxi drives like a very careful human. Bloomberg News sat in the backseat, accompanied by backup drivers, for recent rides near Palo Alto and Phoenix.
Screens built into the back of the front-seat headrests give passengers a sleek, videogame-like view of what the car sees, with nearby vehicles represented as smooth pods jockeying along a dark blue virtual roadway. Every 5 seconds or so, a spray of white pinpoints flash across the screen, briefly illuminating the roadway in striking detail: pedestrians on the sidewalk, shrubbery, road signs dotting the landscape. It’s Waymo’s way of telling the passenger: I’ve got this.
One of the tricks Waymo has had to learn is how to indicate “intent” to other drivers by how the car moves. While making a left turn in a large multi-lane intersection, the car signals and creeps forward before accelerating into the turn. Waymo drives conservatively, to be sure, but the robots aren’t cowards. Gone are the days where two self-driving cars facing each other in a parking lot might freeze up from an overabundance of politeness: You go first. No, please, you go first.
There are still times when the car gets flustered—Kyla says that the rush of students in the parking lot of her high school can trigger Waymo paralysis—but for the most part it’s a reliable, if boring, chauffeur. “Kids walk and it halts,” she says. “It’s so polite. It’s like, ‘Oh sorry.’ It’s not rude enough.”
Waymo vans shuttle in and out of a nondescript depot in suburban Arizona, where a handful of dispatchers manage a fleet of hundreds of vehicles. Waymo just doubled the size of its Chandler facility and will need to find more space soon. The new area of the warehouse is packed with some 50 minivans still being loaded with sensors, and one depot operator said that more vehicles arrive every week.
While Waymo’s trials have proven the technology is feasible, it’s only done so in Arizona’s Goldilocks-like conditions of sunny weather and wide streets, says Raj Rajkumar, a computer engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University. “The question is not just one of cost, it’s one of scale,” he says. “Even Waymo, with Alphabet’s deep pockets, cannot do this across the country.”
In California, meanwhile, Waymo has dozens of vans operating out of Alphabet’s X lab to provide daytime taxi services for employees. That program, too, is up for expansion.
Waymo is coming of age at a time when Uber and Lyft have cemented themselves as the dominant brands in U.S. ride-hailing apps, but Waymo’s head start could establish it as the go-to self-driving service. (Waymo entered into a partnership with Lyft in 2017, although that deal has yet to yield results.) There are ways to quantify this early advantage. California requires detailed reporting from every company testing cars there, and the results show Waymo far ahead of its competitors testing on public roads in the state. The chart below shows the number of miles driven, on average, before a human took control of the car.
Samantha Jackson, who works as a senior director of operations for Downtown Phoenix, grew up in a Michigan family that worked for General Motors Co. Her father was an early tech adopter, boasting the first personal computer of anyone they knew. Now, she says, her dad is “that senior citizen driving 55 in a 70” and she wants him to shift into self-driving cars. “I can’t wait until my dad can get in this thing. I’m so excited for that moment.”
The Waymo app updates every month or so, Samantha says, and the performance of the autonomous cars is constantly improving. Once, early on, her car stopped behind a construction container and didn’t know what to do, forcing the backup driver to take over. On her first trip to the mall, she recalls the car taking “the most asinine route” and then driving all around the parking lot. Since then, she says, Waymo has designated drop-offs on the map for major points of interest.
Waymo is widely seen as the current leader in self-driving technology, and the company is poised to step first into a market that could top more than $1.5 trillion a year by 2030, according to UBS analyst Eric Sheridan. He estimates that Waymo software will drive some 60 percent of autonomous cars by then, bringing Alphabet some $114 billion in revenue, not including the trucking business. But these eye-opening revenue projections and the potential for widespread adoption will hinge, in part, on pricing.
The roughly $1.70 per mile price visible to the Jackson family on the Waymo app is comparable to rates for ride-hailing options in Phoenix but less than the roughly $2.50-per-mile rate charged by the local taxi companies. Without human drivers to pay, however, the price of a Waymo could go lower—much lower.
Tasha Keeney, an analyst at ARK Invest, says that Waymo could choose to offer an autonomous ride-hailing service today at around 70 cents a mile—a quarter of the cost for Uber passengers in San Francisco. Over time, she says, robotaxis should get even cheaper—down to 35 cents a mile by 2020, especially if Waymo’s technology proves sturdy enough to need few human safety monitors overseeing the autonomous vehicles remotely. “You could see software-like margins,” Keeney says.
Self-driving rivals are also plotting their own pricing strategies. Cruise Automation, the unit of GM that’s widely seen as the nearest competitor to Waymo, hasn’t launched passenger tests yet but is already talking about pushing robotaxi prices down. “We see a pretty clear path to less than $1 per mile cost by 2025,” GM President Dan Ammann said in November.
Kyla Jackson has been talking to her parents about what happens when Waymo starts charging for rides. The calculation is different for each member of the family. For Samantha and her husband, who own their own cars, the cost of taking a Waymo competes with the price of gasoline, and that’s a tough sell for everyday errands. The minimum age of riding alone is 16, which means Kyla’s 12-year-old brother needs an older escort. For Kyla’s grandmother, who isn’t in the program, it would be a bargain to be able to pick up her grandson from school and spend time with him rather than worrying about the road.
Kyla is holding out hope that her parents will subsidize her rides. Even if she keeps up her pace of using the car to go to school and work at a burger chain and parties with her friends, the Jacksons all agree that the Waymo is safer than teenage driving—as well as cheaper than owning a car and paying for insurance.
The question then is whether Kyla will get her license at all. She’s in no rush, and her peers seem open to an alternative: “A lot of my friends are like, ‘Oh my gosh, I wish I had a Waymo.’”

How Fire-Safe Is Your Airbnb?


If you use Airbnbs or other vacation rentals, it might be a good idea to check first on their fire safety.
A new study found that while many Airbnbs in the United States had smoke alarms, less than half had fire extinguishers or first-aid kits.
The research was led by Vanya Jones, of the Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy, in Baltimore. Her team surveyed more than 120,500 Airbnb rentals in 16 cities across the United States.
The investigators found that 80 percent had smoke detectors, with rates ranging from 75 percent in Austin, Texas, to 90 percent in Nashville.
But only 58 percent had carbon monoxide (CO) detectors, with rates ranging from 37 percent in Austin to nearly 74 percent in Denver.
And less than half had fire extinguishers, with rates ranging from 29 percent in New York City to more than 70 percent in Austin, the report found.
Portland, Ore., was the only city in the study in which more than half of Airbnbs had first-aid kits, according to the study published May 7 in the journal Injury Prevention.
While it’s reassuring that most Airbnbs had smoke detectors and many had carbon monoxide alarms, “this is substantially lower than the universal requirement for hotels,” which are legally obliged to comply with national fire safety regulations, Jones and her team noted.
Nick Shapiro is Airbnb’s global head of Trust and Risk Management. He said, “At Airbnb, safety is our priority. All hosts must certify that they follow all local laws and regulations. We run home-safety workshops with local fire and emergency medical services all over the world, making sure our hosts have access to the best information in order to keep their guests, their homes and themselves safe.”
Shapiro said that information on safety equipment is included in every listing. That includes “smoke and CO detectors, fire extinguishers, and first-aid kits, so guests can look first and then decide whether that home, tree-house, yurt or igloo is the one they want,” he said.
According to Shapiro, Airbnb gives free smoke and CO detectors to any host that needs one, and the company’s “Plus Collection” of listings requires that residences have a smoke and CO detector in order to make the list.
The new study “used data from three years before Airbnb Plus even debuted,” Shapiro pointed out.
Jones and her colleagues believe more must be done to help boost consumers’ awareness of potential hazards — wherever they stay.
“Public information efforts to make guests more aware of the importance of these safety amenities could facilitate demand for them, which might also increase the number of hosts who offer them,” they suggested in a journal news release.
In the meantime, Shapiro said that Airbnb “will reach out to the authors of the study, as we would like to work with them to increase awareness of safety measures for all homeowners, again, whether they are Airbnb hosts or not — and transparency is key, so we will continue to ensure our guests know exactly what safety features their Airbnb has before they book it.”
More information
The American Red Cross has more on fire prevention and safety.
SOURCES: Injury Prevention, news release, May 7, 2018; May 7, 2018, statement, Nick Shapiro, global head of Trust and Risk Management, Airbnb

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