SpaceX’s IPO Could Pressure Legacy Aerospace Stocks, Says BNP Paribas

 SpaceX’s planned IPO could pressure legacy aerospace and defense stocks, but BNP Paribas says that the biggest disruption may not come from rocket launches alone. Five-star analyst Matt Akers noted that SpaceX is already the clear leader in launch, with more than 160 launches in 2025, nearly 10 times Rocket Lab’s RKLB -0.81% ▼ total. That lead could widen as Starship production ramps up. As a result, Boeing BA +2.02% ▲ and Lockheed Martin LMT +0.95% ▲ face the most obvious launch risk through their United Launch Alliance joint venture, which competes for U.S. national security missions at higher prices than SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

However, BNP said that the direct earnings hit from the launch competition looks limited. Indeed, ULA contributed less than 1% of Lockheed’s operating profit in 2024, while the impact on Boeing was described as “non-meaningful.” The bigger long-term story may be Starship’s ability to change the economics of space. BNP estimates that Starship could lower launch costs to under $1,000 per kilogram to low Earth orbit, which could open new markets such as orbital AI computing, larger satellite networks, and eventually Mars-related infrastructure

Still, cheaper launches may not drastically change near-term Pentagon spending, since launch costs made up only about 7% of Space Force modernization spending in fiscal 2026. The more important risk may be military communications. BNP pointed to SpaceX’s $2.3 billion Space Data Network Backbone contract, which replaced a planned satellite constellation involving Northrop Grumman NOC +1.24% ▲ , Lockheed, Rocket Lab, and York Space Systems. SpaceX’s Starshield system could also compete with tactical communications products from L3Harris LHX +1.82% ▲ and General Dynamics GD +2.31% ▲

Turning to Wall Street, out of the aerospace stocks mentioned above, analysts think that NOC stock has the most room to run. In fact, NOC’s price target of $713.15 per share implies 28.2% upside potential.

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