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Sunday, May 3, 2020

U.S. equity futures dip as states strive to re-start, Buffett sticks to cash

U.S. equity futures fall, extending the decline that started on Thursday as risk-off sets the tone for the start of the week.
Warren Buffett over the weekend tried to sooth (“never bet against America”), but he’s not a buyer here. Instead he’s unloaded all of his airline investments, and is keeping Berkshire’s cash hoard close.
S&P 500 futures fall 1.3%, Nasdaq futures slip 1.2% and the Dow futures are down 1.3%.
The fall comes after a number of states allow some non-essential businesses to open in an effort to re-start their economies.
Still, the World Health Organization reports that the U.S. suffered its highest 24-hour death toll yet from the coronavirus — 2,909 deaths as of 4AM Friday.
And tensions between the U.S. and China increase after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said there’s a “significant amount of evidence” tying the coronavirus to a lab in the Wuhan region of China.
Crude oil falls 5.0% to $18.80 per barrel; gold creeps up 0.4% to $1,707.10 per ounce.
The U.S. Dollar Index rises 0.2% to 99.22.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3568063-u-s-equity-futures-dip-states-strive-to-re-start-buffett-sticks-to-cash

Trump promises more federal aid for Americans

“There’s more help coming. There has to be,” President Trump said at a virtual town hall meeting on Fox News when asked by an unemployed worker if there will be more federal assistance.
Trump now expects 75K-100K deaths from coronavirus.
He said he expects a vaccine will be available by the end of the year.
Update at 8:16 PM: If he’s elected to a second term, Trump said he’s going to work to reduce the government’s deficit. “We’re going to cut back [spending] very substantially plus we’re going to have great growth,” he said.
“We have tens of billions of dollars coming in” from other countries, Trump added.
On another topic, he aims to bring back the antibiotic supply chain to the U.S. is within two years.
8:27 PM: To help deal with joblessness, Trump would like to see an infrastructure bill, which he says the Democrats want as well. But “we’re not doing anything unless we get a payroll tax cut,” he said.
8:33 PM: Asked if he would use tariffs to punish China for the coronavirus, Trump said they would be the “ultimate punishment.”
If China doesn’t buy the amount of U.S. goods they agreed to, the U.S. will end the trade deal, he said.
8:44 PM: “I’m absolutely convinced that by early summer, we can get the economy moving again,” Vice President Mike Pence said.
8:56 PM: Town hall ends.
The U.S. has 1.57M COVID-19 cases and 67,498 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3568064-trump-promises-federal-aid-for-americans

Stranger Than Fiction

Over a year ago, I completed a script titled “Strangers,” a psychological thriller in which the lead character, Joel, visualizes a world where everyone wears a mask on his face. Joel is unable to relate to anyone because the only face he can see is his own. Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has found itself in an eerily similar scenario. Nearly every person in Manhattan wears a mask these days. What was once my creative fantasy has become a terrifying reality.
The crisis has changed the concept of “stranger” in New York. Seeing another person’s face usually sets us at ease, allowing us to learn something about how the other person is feeling, his personality, and his intentions. That’s gone. We have become fearful of one another. We make sure to stay far apart not just because of the virus but also because now there’s an element of the unknown in every person. Humans are social creatures; we communicate in subtle ways through expression and tone of voice. Now it’s hard to talk with anyone. Muffled voices sound on the streets. Paranoia ranges freely. Manhattan’s social character has been completely transformed. We have all been pushed into a world not unlike Joel’s.
When I wrote the script, I loved the idea of someone unable to communicate by seeing other people’s faces. Now, not so much. I thought it was a fantastic idea for a movie; it isn’t so good for real life.
Joel finds himself staying mostly inside because of the terror he faces in the outside world. He grows desperate and depressed. For entertainment, he browses animal videos. His apartment is a mess because, despite having ample time to clean it, he’s too despondent to care. Self-isolation has driven him into a maddening boredom. Joel’s best “friend” is a poster of a cat he has named Zanny, to whom he expresses his thoughts and feelings. But Zanny can’t give Joel the social interaction he needs.
All of this has become a bit too real. We hold birthday parties over Skype. We dive deep into movies and YouTube videos. Everyone is bored and getting more frustrated at the lack of stimulation. It feels as if we’ve entered an alternative reality, in which we’re allowed only glimpses of real interaction.
In my script, I envisioned a huge “reveal,” just as Joel exits the subway into Columbus Circle: every person outside is casually wearing a mask, going about their business. The reality is somehow scarier. Once heavily populated areas now stand nearly empty. People haul huge carts of food home so that they don’t have to go outside again for weeks. They stand in huge lines outside supermarkets, staying several feet away from one another.
Mark Twain’s well-known quote—“Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t”—will never cease to be relevant. It’s all somehow much more bizarre than I could’ve conjured. Never could I have anticipated that the world would actually be filled with people wearing masks. It was supposed to be a movie script! It was supposed to be thought-provoking, not life-changing. Reality took my fictional idea of one man seeing the world in a horrific way and made it into truth, for everyone.
https://www.city-journal.org/new-york-city-masks

Oxford professor: Possible coronavirus vaccine could show efficacy by June

Sir John Bell, the Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, said Sunday that researchers at the university working on a potential vaccine for the coronavirus would likely have an idea of its efficacy by June.
Bell told NBC’s Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press” that researchers hope to generate enough data from Phase Two trials to “get evidence that the vaccine has efficacy by the beginning of June.”
Bell called the chances of success in developing a vaccine “pretty good,” adding “we are gradually reeling it in, bit by bit and as every day goes by, the likelihood of success goes up.”
If the disease “peters out in the U.K.,” Bell added, “we have sites already in play in other parts of the world where it’s active.”
“Coronavirus doesn’t mutate at the pace of flu as far as we can see but it’s also quite a tricky virus in terms of dictating long-term immune responses to it and as a result I suspect we may need to have relatively regular vaccinations against coronavirus going into the future,” Bell added. “That of course remains to be seen but that’s my bet at the moment, is that this is likely to be a seasonal coronavirus vaccine.”
The Oxford team, he added, is making safety a priority even as it fast-tracks potential vaccines, saying the researchers have done pre-clinical primate studies and taken other precautions, ensuring that “we’re being very careful.”
“I think we’ve got reason to believe that the efficacy, the efficacy of the vaccine in terms of generating strong antibody responses is probably going to be OK. The real question is whether the safety profile’s going to be fine. So that’s actually the main focus of the clinical studies,” he said.
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/495865-oxford-professor-possible-coronavirus-vaccine-could-show-efficacy

Gottlieb: Mitigation ‘didn’t work as well as we expected’

Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Sunday that measures put in place to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus did not work as well as public health experts expected.
“When you look across the country, it’s really a mixed bag,” Gottlieb said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
He said cases are falling in the tri-state area around New York City, which he noted is driving much of the national statistics since the region has such a large outbreak.
“But when you back out what’s happening in New York…around the nation, hospitalizations and new cases continue to rise. There’s about 20 states where we see a rising number of new cases,” he said.
Gottlieb also named a handful of states where the number of cases are still rising, including Tennessee and Texas, which have started lifting restrictions.
“While mitigation didn’t fail, I think it’s fair to say it didn’t work as well as we expected. We expected we’d start seeing more significant declines in new case and deaths around the nation at this point, and we’re just not seeing that,” he said.
Gottlieb said there may be 100,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. by June. There have been 66,415 deaths in the U.S. so far, based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
“It’s really hard to predict beyond June,” he said.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495862-gottlieb-mitigation-didnt-work-as-well-as-we-expected

Gilead CEO: Covid-19 drug to be deployed to ‘most urgent’ patients this week

The CEO of Gilead Sciences said that remdesivir, a new drug granted emergency authorization to treat COVID-19, will be sent to the patients most in need early this week.
“We are now firmly focussed on getting this medicine to the most urgent patients around the country here in the United States,” Daniel O’Day said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
“We intend to get that to patients in the early part of this next week, beginning to work with the government which will determine which cities are most vulnerable and where the patients are that need this medicine,” he added.
Face The Nation @FaceTheNation
NEWS: @GileadSciences Daniel O’Day tells @margbrennan that will be deployed to “most urgent” patients at the beginning of next week following the drug’s emergency use authorization on Friday.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced last Friday the drug received an emergency use authorization as treatment for COVID-19 after it showed promising results during a clinical trial.
The trial found that hospitalized patients with advanced COVID-19 who received remdesivir, an antiviral medicine, recovered in 11 days instead of the 15 days it took patients who were placed on a placebo.
The drug is still being studied, but the emergency use authorization allows it to be administered by prescription while it is still being studied.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495870-gilead-ceo-coronavirus-drug-will-be-deployed-to-most-urgent-patients-this

‘About two to three weeks to see’ whether early reopenings cause Covid-19 spike

Tom Inglesby, the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said on Sunday that the coronavirus’ incubation period meant it would take some time for any spike in infections due to relaxed restrictions to become apparent.
“It’s going to take about two to three weeks for us to begin to see trends that come out of the changes in social distancing,” Inglesby said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “A measure taken this morning, you probably won’t see a change in hospitalization rates or ICU capacity until two or three weeks from now. So that’s the nature of the disease, it’s going to take a little time for things to get into the system.”
Inglesby said that expanding testing capacity and contact tracing would also be vital in the weeks ahead to determine the rate of mild or asymptomatic cases.
“In the coming weeks and months we need to get a much better handle on the number of mild and moderate cases of disease we have. The good news is that many, many people do not get seriously ill with this disease,” he said. “The bad news is we’re not capturing those people in terms of numbers for the country and if we don’t know who they are we can’t break their chains of transmission.”
Asked by host Chuck Todd about the possibility of a second wave of the virus in the fall coinciding with the flu season, Inglesby said that “before we even get to the fall I am worried we will have small waves around the country in various places for the coming months.”
“Hopefully we won’t but … if we stopped social distancing tomorrow we would recreate the conditions that existed in this country in February and March,” Inglesby added.
“Don’t call it a lull,” he said.
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/495864-public-health-expert-its-going-to-take-about-two-to-three-weeks-to