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Monday, June 8, 2020

Biden tax hikes would be stock-market headwind

A 2020 election win by former Vice President Joe Biden would lead to higher corporate taxes and take the wind out of the stock market, according to new research from Wall Street analysts.
Biden, who has a 55 percent chance of winning the November election, according to online market and political event forecaster PredictIt, would partially reverse President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and make a number of other possible changes, including a higher tax rate on capital gains and dividends for the highest earners and changes in non-tax regulatory policies.
The administration’s tax reform legislation, which was enacted in 2017, lowered the U.S. corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent, which was the highest in the world. Analysis by the Tax Foundation shows Biden’s plan would hike the corporate tax rate to 28 percent.
“Extrapolating current multiples on that kind of earnings decline makes 100-150 points on the S&P 500 a baseline for the impact of a tax cut rollback, all else equal,” wrote Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, noting a good working assumption was a mid-single dollar impact on S&P 500 earnings.
“Of course, any impact on investor confidence that drags the multiple lower, or business investment, that drags economic growth lower could compound this effect,” he added.
The S&P 500 has rallied 43 percent off its March 23 bottom despite the U.S. economy being mired in its sharpest downturn of the postwar era. The benchmark index ended Friday’s session 6 percent below its Feb. 19 peak of 3,386 as investors look ahead toward the full reopening of the U.S. economy.
Wall Street economists see the economy contracting at an annualized rate of at least 30 percent in the second quarter after shrinking by 5 percent during the first three months of the year.
“Although the coronavirus has caused the sharpest decline in economic activity on record, in some ways tax policy represents a larger risk to earnings and consequently to equity prices,” wrote David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
The TCJA has lowered the effective tax rate of S&P 500 companies by 8 percentage points to 19 percent and boosted S&P 500 earnings by 10 percent, according to Kostin. He noted that declining effective tax rates over the past 30 years have boosted S&P 500 earnings by 24 percent and accounted for half of the 400 basis point increase in net profit margins.

Biden, who on Friday secured enough delegates to win the Democratic nominee, “needs to be careful in talking about a big tax increase early next year,” Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at Ontario, Canada-based AGF Investments, which has nearly $39.5 billion in assets under management, told FOX Business. “I’m not sure a tax increase is a good idea in early 2021 as the jury will still be out on the extent of the recovery.”
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biden-tax-hikes-stock-market-headwind

Uncovered: Blood Type Most Resistant To COVID-19… And Another Malaria Link

Genetic testing firm 23andMe have discovered that Type-O blood is particularly resistant to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.
In a Monday statement, the company said that preliminary results from over 750,000 participants have revealed  clues as to why some people experience little to no symptoms from coronavirus, while others become gravely ill, according to Bloomberg.
Many other groups, including 23andMe competitor Ancestry Inc., are combing the genome to help make sense of the virus. It is known that factors such as age and underlying health conditions can determine how people fare once they’ve contracted Covid-19. But those factors alone don’t explain the wide diversity of symptoms, or why some people contract the disease and others don’t. Studying the genetics of the people who are more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 could help identify and protect those more at risk, as well as help speed treatment and drug development. –Bloomberg
Perhaps most interesting is that Type-O blood is also associated with a 66% reduction in the odds of developing severe malaria compared to the non-O blood types, according to a 2007 study.
This might explain why Hydroxychloroquine and other anti-malarial drugs have shown efficacy in treating COVID-19
Last week, peer reviewed research which analyzed the genes of more than 1,600 coronavirus patients in Italy and Spain who experienced respiratory failure suggested that blood type may play a role in the severity of the disease. The found that patients with Type-A blood were linked to a 50% increase in the likelihood they would require a ventilator. The results were similar to an earlier Chinese study regarding susceptibility to COVID-19.
There have also been some reports of links between Covid-19, blood clotting, and cardiovascular disease,” said lead researcher on the 23andMe study, Adam Auton. “These reports provided some hints about which genes might be relevant.”
The 23andMe study, which looked at susceptibility rather than severity of illness, included 10,000 participants who told the company they had Covid-19.
The research found that individuals with type O blood are between 9% and 18% less likely than individuals with other blood types to have tested positive for the virus. However, there was little difference in susceptibility among other blood types, the study found. When the researchers adjusted the data to account for factors like age and pre-existing illnesses, as well as when it restricted the data to only those with high-probability of exposure like health-care workers, the findings were the same. –Bloomberg
Auton say that while the results are promising, larger studies are required.
“It’s early days; even with these sample sizes, it might not be enough to find genetic associations,” he said. “We’re not the only group looking at this, and ultimately the scientific community may need to pool their resources to really address questions surrounding the links between genetics and Covid-19.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/researchers-uncover-which-blood-type-most-resistant-covid-19-and-another-malaria-link

1 of 3 Nevada nursing home virus deaths not reported: Feds

Almost one-third of Nevada nursing home residents who died after contracting COVID-19 have not been publicly reported by state officials, according to a recently published federal report.
At least 126 nursing home residents infected with the respiratory disease have died in Nevada, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reported June 1. State officials had reported only 89 deaths as of June 5.
A new dataset released by the CMS later in the week also indicates that about one-fourth of Nevada nursing homes are not regularly submitting COVID-19 data to federal officials, a finding which some of those nursing homes disputed.
The federal report comes less than two weeks after Nevada Department of Health and Human Services director Richard Whitley announced that nursing home residents accounted for only about 20 percent of the state’s COVID-19 deaths. The federal numbers would put that figure closer to 30 percent.
Neither state or federal officials could immediately point to what was causing the large discrepancy between their figures, and both said they were receiving information directly from nursing homes.
CMS administrator Seema Verma on Thursday said some states may not be including the deaths of nursing home residents who died at local hospitals.
“Right now this is the data that has been reported to us by the nursing homes,” she said.
But Nevada DHHS spokeswoman Shannon Litz said the state isn’t excluding deaths occurring at hospitals from its data.
“We count all deaths with COVID-19 where the patient has not recovered from COVID-19 before dying; it is not necessary for COVID-19 to be listed as the cause of death,” she wrote in an email.
Other numbers in the federal report also differ largely from state-published data.
CMS reported 147 total cases, including deaths, among nursing home residents in Nevada, almost four times less than the 577 reported by the state as of June 5.
Similarly, the federal report stated only 125 nursing home staff had contracted the disease in Nevada. The state has reported 403 cases among staff.
One reason the numbers of cases may be lower in the federal data is that CMS did not require nursing homes to report infections discovered before May 8. However, that would not explain why the number of reported resident deaths is higher in the federal data than the state’s.
Litz said the state’s numbers come from both laboratory data and information that nursing homes are required to submit daily. Cases and deaths are added to the state’s publicly published data once a DHHS worker confirms them with the nursing home.
“We will be looking into this further,” Litz wrote in an email Friday.
The federal report also shows that Nevada is one of four states where state health officials have completed on-site inspections of all nursing homes since early March.
CMS has so far only published inspection findings for four of the state’s 66 facilities. None were cited for failing to meet federal standards for infection prevention and control.
More inspection results will be published on June 24 and then on a monthly basis, according to CMS.
Nursing homes question data
CMS, which regulates and oversees the nation’s nursing homes, last month began requiring the facilities to submit COVID-19 data on a weekly basis to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Healthcare Safety Network.
The new initiative is being used to identify problem areas and help CMS better plan infection control actions.
The federal dataset was released publicly for the first time this week. It indicates that 17 of Nevada’s 66 nursing homes are not regularly submitting data.
The state’s two deadliest outbreak sites — The Heights of Summerlin in Las Vegas and Lakeside Health & Wellness Suites in Reno — were among the facilities that did not submit weekly data to the CDC in time for either of its first two deadlines, May 24 and 31. Facilities that don’t participate can face recurring fines, starting at $1,000.
But administrators from both nursing homes said the federal data is flawed and that they submitted the information.
“We have followed all reporting protocols in a timely manner and have the documentation as a record of our submission,” The Heights of Summerlin administrator Andrew Reese wrote in an email Thursday evening. “It appears their data needs to be updated and we will contact them first thing tomorrow to discuss.”
“We believe it is a mistake and will resolve it directly with CMS,” Lakeside Health & Wellness Suites administrator Ellen Kelly wrote in an email.
The federal dataset also shows that only 30 nursing home residents in Nevada have died from COVID-19, a direct contradiction of the report CMS released earlier in the week.
A CMS official did not directly answer a Review-Journal reporter’s questions about the conflicting death tolls the agency published, but wrote in an email that the agency was performing quality checks to find any ”data submission errors” from nursing homes.
Staffing discrepancies
In addition to tracking COVID-19 infections and deaths, CMS is also collecting information about nursing home staffing levels and their inventories of personal protective equipment.
The federal data shows Life Care Center of Las Vegas reported having a shortage of nursing and clinical staff, as well as a shortage of aides and other workers. Executive director Clarissa Dewese did not return a request for comment.
Lake Mead Health and Rehabilitation Center in Henderson reported having no supply of N-95 masks, surgical masks, eye protection, gowns, gloves or hand sanitizer, according to the federal data. But facility spokesperson Annaliese Impink wrote in an email Friday the facility “has ample PPE.”
Verma said the CMS expects to see fluctuations in the data throughout June as nursing homes get used to reporting information to federal officials.
The dataset will be updated in two weeks, and on a weekly basis after that.
“There’s going to be honest errors in data entry,” she said. “We’re going to be continuing to work on scrubbing the data.”
Feds: One-third of Nevada nursing home virus deaths not reported

The importance of testing Covid-19 tests

The US is authorising new Covid-19 antibody tests faster than it is checking their accuracy.
As many countries around the world begin to reopen schools and businesses in earnest, warnings of the perils of relying on antibody tests to pinpoint people with immunity to the Covid-19 virus have become louder.
It is still unclear whether antibodies confer immunity and, if they do, how long this might last. Questions over accuracy remain, with the figures claimed for marketed tests varying, and quality of the evidence on which those claims are based also showing some disparity. And the FDA continues to authorise new antibody tests rather faster than it is able to conduct their promised independent evaluations.
So far the US regulator has published independent accuracy data on two of the antibody tests to which it has issued emergency use authorisation – those from Euroimmun and Healgen. It has also published data on three tests that it has said must no longer be sold in the US, including that developed by Biomedomics, which had been distributed by Becton Dickinson.
Meanwhile the number of antibody, or serological, tests to have gained authorisation has ticked up to 15. The most recent are from Hangzhou Biotest Biotech and Vibrant America Clinical Labs. No sensitivity and specificity figures are yet available for Vibrant’s test. Hangzhou Biotest’s RightSign assay, meanwhile, has been independently validated at the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, with the tests being sponsored by the National Cancer Institute. This testing put sensitivity and specificity alike at 100% for IgG and IgM combined.
Interestingly the FDA’s own independent accuracy testing is also taking place at the Frederick National Laboratory, under the NCI’s auspices. Presumably when the FDA gets around to checking RightSign it will come up with near-identical figures.
In the meantime, 13 antibody tests have gained EUA and are on sale in the US without having gone through this independent accuracy validation step.
Severe inflammatory response
Separately, another innovative kind of Covid-19 test gained EUA this week. Roche has launched a test that measures levels of the cytokine IL-6 as a way of identifying Covid-19 patients who could be at high risk of needing mechanical ventilation.
IL-6 is released once they are activated by a pathogen such as the novel coronavirus. Roche’s Elecsys IL-6 blood test, which is also CE marked and on sale in Europe, can be used for early identification of severe inflammatory response in patients with confirmed Covid-19, the Swiss group says. It runs on Roche’s cobas e instrument, which can return results in less than 20 minutes, with a throughput of up to 300 tests per hour.
Research published in early March suggested that Covid-19 viral load was associated with elevated IL-6 levels in severely ill patients, spurring several biotechs to start trialling anti-IL-6 therapies in the disease. Roche’s own Actemra had already been added to Chinese treatment guidelines (Tiziana takes a deep breath and targets Covid-19, March 11, 2020).
How large a demand there is for such an assay is not clear, but Roche has certainly had a better week than Hologic. That company obtained EUA for a molecular test for the presence of the coronavirus, to be run on its Panther Fusion analyser, in mid-March, But on Thursday the FDA warned that certain types of liquid used to preserve samples could, when used with the Panther Fusion system, produce cyanide gas.

10 states with economies most exposed to COVID-19

Florida has the economy most exposed to COVID-19, according to an analysis released June 8 by WalletHub, a personal finance website.
To identify state economies most exposed to COVID-19, analysts compared the 50 U.S. states and District of Columbia across 14 metrics. Metrics ranged from the share of employment from highly affected industries to the number of workers with access to paid sick leave and the increase in unemployment. More information about the methodology is available here.
Ten states with economies most exposed to COVID-19, according to the analysis:
Note: District of Columbia ranked between New York and Georgia but is not included in the state list below.
1. Florida
2. Louisiana
3. Mississippi
4. Kentucky
5. New York
6. Georgia
7. Virginia
8. Illinois
9. Maryland
10. North Carolina
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/10-states-with-economies-most-exposed-to-covid-19.html

UnitedHealthcare Chosen to Serve Kentucky Medicaid

UnitedHealthcare Community Plan of Kentucky on Monday said it was chosen as one of five organizations that will administer the state of Kentucky’s Medicaid program, beginning on January 1.
The UnitedHealth Group Inc. company said it will “offer health benefit plans for a portion of approximately 1.2 million eligible adults and children who meet qualifications for the state’s Medicaid program.”
Currently, UnitedHealthcare employs nearly 800 people in Kentucky and works with a number of local organizations and nonprofits, the company said.
Amy Johnston, the chief executive of UnitedHealthcare Community Plan of Kentucky, said “Our mission is to help people live healthier lives and to help make the health system work better for everyone, and we are committed to improving the overall health of Kentucky Medicaid plan participants.”

https://www.marketscreener.com/UNITEDHEALTH-GROUP-14750/news/UnitedHealth-UnitedHealthcare-Chosen-to-Serve-Kentucky-Medicaid-Beneficiaries-30740897/

BioCryst’s berotralstat long term study suggests reductions in attack rate

New data from APeX-2 and APeX-S trials of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’s (BCRX +6.2%) once-daily oral berotralstat demonstrated sustained decrease in attack frequency and improvements in quality of life scores over 48 weeks, in hereditary angioedema (“HAE”) patients.
Berotralstat was also safe and generally well-tolerated over 48 weeks in total of 342 patients with 232 patient-years of daily oral dosing.
Gastrointestinal events led to discontinuation of berotralstat in 3.2% of patients.
Drug-related serious adverse events occurred in three of 342 subjects and resolved after stopping or interrupting dosing.
In APeX-2, 31 patients were randomized to 150 mg of berotralstat and at 48 weeks had a mean baseline attack rate of 2.9 attacks per month, which declined to 1.5 attacks per month after one month and to 1.0 attack per month at 12 months.
In APeX-S, patients completing 48 weeks on 150 mg (n=73) had a median attack rate of zero attacks per month in six of the 12 months, including month 12 (week 48).
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3581231-biocrysts-berotralstat-long-term-study-suggests-reductions-in-attack-rate