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Saturday, February 6, 2021

Cautionary note on recall vaccination in ex-COVID-19 subjects

 Riccardo Levi, Elena Azzolini, 

Chiara PozziLeonardo UbaldiMichele LagioiaAlberto MantovaniMaria Rescigno

Adenovirus-Vector Vaccine Roundup, Feb 5: Sputnik and More

 By Derek Lowe 

We’ve had yet more news in this area in the ten days or so since my last vaccine news roundup post, so here’s a look at the current situation. Most all the news has been in the viral vector area, so I’ll stick to that this time around.

The big news here is the publication of the Gamaleya Institute’s “Sputnik-V” vaccine data. In the end, we have data on about 15,000 patients who were vaccinated, and on about 5,000 in the placebo control group. Volunteers got a dose of an adenovirus-26 vector vaccine, followed 21 days later by a dose of the identical construct in an adenovirus-5 vector. This is to try to avoid the immune response to the vector itself, which has always been a concern with any of the viral-vector vaccines (against the coronavirus and against anything else!) Another concern is the possibility that once you’ve had such an adenovirus-vector treatment, that you might be in trouble for further vaccinations that use the same vector (and this remains an open question).

Counting from the day of the second dose, there were 16 cases of disease in the vaccinated cohort, and 62 cases in the controls. That comes out to a two-dose vaccine efficacy of 91.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of 85.6% to 95.2%. In no subgroup (age, gender, etc.) was it lower than 87%. As with most of the other trials, this is largely based on symptomatic disease – the participants were checked by PCR at the beginning and on the day of the second dose, but at no other times. Importantly, and in line with the other vaccine trial data we’ve seen so far, there were no cases at all of moderate or severe disease in the vaccinated group after the date of the second dose. Figure 2 of the paper shows that the effect of the first shot kicks in around day 16-18 – a bit longer than what’s been seen with the mRNA vaccines, but the curve afterwards shows the same strong protection. Safety looks good, with few adverse events and nothing serious connected with the vaccine itself.

So these data look strong, strong enough that a single-dose trial is underway as well (and that will make an interesting comparison with J&J’s Ad26-vector vaccine, for which we have single-dose data with a two-dose trial underway). We’ll be getting more real-world data on this one, as it’s being deployed in several countries, and it will certainly be worth seeing how it handles the variant strains that we’re seeing now. My expectation is that it will deal with the B.1.1.7 one at nearly the same efficacy and drop down to the 50-60% efficacy range against the B.1.351 strain, as has been seen with the other vaccines where we have such data. Based on the numbers we have, I see no reason why this vaccine can’t make a solid contribution to fighting the pandemic, and I’m very glad to have another efficacious one out there for use.

For updates on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, I’ll refer everyone to this post, and likewise for updates on the J&J vaccine, this recent post. As for the CanSino Ad5 vaccine, there are reports in Chinese media of positive safety and efficacy data, which means that it’s officially moving into Phase III. That sounds a bit odd, considering that it’s apparently being offered in Pakistan, Malaysia, and other countries already, but these are odd times. There is also word of a combination trial with this one and the Sputnik vaccine as well, which would replace the second (Ad5) dose of the former with the CanSino one. And the AstraZeneca/Gamaleya combination trial was reported just today as ready to start in Azerbaijan and a whole list of other countries.

Of the other viral vectors I reported on in the most recent post, the big news has been on the Vaxart oral candidate. Unfortunately, the company reported that they were unable to detect serum neutralizing antibodies in most trial subjects, which has to be considered an unwelcome development. Their press release sounds a lot more positive than that (as is so often the case), but it’s rather light on actual data. It may be (although it seems less likely) that the real-world efficacy of this candidate will depend on its mucosal immunogenicity and that the lack of neutralizing antibodies in serum is a red herring, but the only way to convince people of that will be with lots of strong efficacy data in human trials.

The Reithera vaccine has had a news report about being available in Italy in September, but on closer inspection it’s “if the Phase II and Phase III trials, which haven’t started yet, go well”, so that’s not too useful. And the Washington Univ./Bharat Biotech intranasal adenovirus vector candidate is set to go into Phase I trials on 75 people in India.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/05/adenovirus-vector-vaccine-roundup-feb-5-sputnik-and-more

Protein glycosylation is essential for SARS-CoV-2 infection

 

Aitor Casas-SanchezAlessandra Romero-RamirezEleanor HargreavesEdward I PattersonGrant L HughesTobias ZechAlvaro Acosta-Serrano

Covid-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of broad national immunization program

 Hagai Rossman, Smadar Shilo, Tomer Meir, Malka Gorfine*, Uri Shalit*, Eran Segal*


Abstract 

Studies on the real-life impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine, recently authorized for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are urgently needed. Here, we analysed the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalization in Israel following a vaccination campaign initiated on December 20th, 2020. We conducted a retrospective analysis of real-world data from March 2020 to February 2021, originated from the Israeli Ministry of Health (MOH). In order to distill the effect of the vaccinations from other factors, including a third lockdown imposed in Israel on January 2021, we compared the time-dependent changes in number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations between (1) individuals above 60 years old eligible to receive the vaccine earlier and younger individuals (0-59 years old) and (2) cities who vaccinated early compared to late-vaccinated cities. and (3) the current lockdown versus the previous lockdown, imposed on September 2020. By February 2nd 2021, 42.8% and 27.6% of the entire Israeli population (88.9% and 77.7% of individuals older than 60 years old) received the first dose or both doses of the vaccine, respectively, or recovered from COVID-19. In mid-January, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalization started to decrease, with a larger and earlier decrease among older individuals. This trend was more evident in early-vaccinated compared to late-vaccinated cities. Such a pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown. Our analysis demonstrates early signs for the real-life effectiveness of a national vaccination campaign in Israel on the pandemic dynamics. Although our findings are preliminary, we decided to publish them as they have major public health implications in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. More studies aimed at assessing the effectiveness of vaccination both on the individual and on the population level, with larger followup are needed.

https://github.com/hrossman/Patterns-of-covid-19-pandemic-dynamics-following-deployment-of-a-broad-national-immunization-program/raw/main/2021-02-03%20%20-%20Patterns%20of%20covid-19%20pandemic%20dynamics%20following%20deployment%20of%20a%20broad%20national%20immunization%20program.pdf

A Private Fix for Public Health

 Just before the first cases of the novel coronavirus began popping up in the U.S. around this time last year, public-health agencies’ biggest concern seemed to be e-cigarettes.

In January 2020, the Food and Drug Administration announced stringent bans on many of these nicotine-vapor products, teenagers’ use of which former FDA director Scott Gottlieb called an “epidemic.” That same month, the Centers for Disease Control ended its months-long recommendation that all Americans avoid e-cigarettes, after mistakenly blaming them for causing several thousand cases of lung injury nationwide. Other CDC initiatives in 2019 had included examining what foods should be sold at highway rest stops, encouraging urban planners to build more walking-friendly cities, and trying to influence how Hollywood portrays epidemics.

For all this activity, though, the CDC was failing in its core public-health functions. Despite an $11 billion budget, the agency had never produced useful modeling of how a novel virus might spread and be contained. In March 2020, Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top public-health official, was telling Americans not to wear masks. CDC arrogance and bureaucracy led to contaminated and delayed testing. A recent Reuters investigative report highlights how the agency missed early opportunities to identify asymptomatic spread of Covid-19.

The restrictions that public-health officials have put on American public life have been ad hoc and ineffective. How are liquor stores essential, but not schools? Despite imposing some of the nation’s strictest Covid lockdowns, California has a 45 percent higher hospitalization rate than Florida, which has remained relatively open.

When President Trump promised that a Covid vaccine would be developed within months, the nation’s top public-health experts scoffed. “At the earliest, a year to a year and a half, no matter how fast you go,” said Fauci last March. Private pharmaceutical companies proved the naysayers wrong—but then public-health officials botched the vaccine rollout, contributing to even more suffering and death.

U.S. public health must return to its core function of protecting Americans from transmissible diseases—not from themselves. A downsized CDC should rebrand under its original name, the Communicable Disease Center, and stop trying to control behavioral health decisions like vaping.

Bureaucracies always resist reform, but philanthropy can play a role here, funding innovative private alternatives to public health. Ample historical precedent exists for such an effort. Philanthropy played a role in building the nation’s public-health infrastructure. A local businessman’s idea and generosity led to the founding in 1912 of Tulane’s School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the first institution of its kind. The Rockefeller Foundation founded the nation’s second, the Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene, once known as the “West Point of Public Health.” The Milbank Memorial Fund helped model municipal health departments, including Syracuse’s. Before these foundations existed, wealthy individuals built public baths, clinics, and dispensaries in impoverished neighborhoods of major cities.

Philanthropists can once again lead the way in remodeling our public-health institutions. The effort might start with a nonpartisan citizens’ committee to engage in a military-style “after-action” analysis of the pandemic response to identify shortcomings and fixes. Such a report might identify problems like the CDC’s monopolization of testing and lack of early contact tracing as targets for future philanthropic efforts.

A new infectious-disease school—devoted to science rather than fashionable political causes—could also catalyze a renaissance in the theory and practice of public health. More ambitious philanthropy could support private alternatives to the CDC or even to the feckless World Health Organization.

We can’t control when the next pandemic will strike, but we can vastly improve our response by empowering private institutions to bolster, if not surpass, our sclerotic public-health bureaucracy.

New AI tool can thwart coronavirus mutations

 USC researchers have developed a new method to counter emergent mutations of the coronavirus and hasten vaccine development to stop the pathogen responsible for killing thousands of people and ruining the economy.

Using artificial intelligence (AI), the research team at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering developed a method to speed the analysis of vaccines and zero in on the best potential preventive medical therapy.

The method is easily adaptable to analyze potential mutations of the , ensuring the best possible vaccines are quickly identified—solutions that give humans a big advantage over the evolving contagion. Their machine-learning model can accomplish  design cycles that once took months or years in a matter of seconds and minutes, the study says.

"This AI framework, applied to the specifics of this virus, can provide vaccine candidates within seconds and move them to clinical trials quickly to achieve preventive medical therapies without compromising safety," said Paul Bogdan, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at USC Viterbi and corresponding author of the study. "Moreover, this can be adapted to help us stay ahead of the coronavirus as it mutates around the world."

The findings appear today in Nature Research's Scientific Reports

When applied to SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—the computer model quickly eliminated 95% of the compounds that could've possibly treated the pathogen and pinpointed the best options, the study says.

The AI-assisted method predicted 26 potential vaccines that would work against the coronavirus. From those, the scientists identified the best 11 from which to construct a multi-epitope vaccine, which can attack the spike proteins that the coronavirus uses to bind and penetrate a host cell. Vaccines target the region—or epitope—of the contagion to disrupt the spike protein, neutralizing the ability of the virus to replicate.

Moreover, the engineers can construct a new multi-epitope vaccine for a new virus in less than a minute and validate its quality within an hour. By contrast, current processes to control the virus require growing the pathogen in the lab, deactivating it and injecting the virus that caused a disease. The process is time-consuming and takes more than one year; meanwhile, the disease spreads.

USC method could help counter COVID-19 mutations

The method is especially useful during this stage of the pandemic as the coronavirus begins to mutate in populations around the world. Some scientists are concerned that the mutations may minimize the effectiveness of vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna, which are now being distributed. Recent variants of the virus that have emerged in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil seem to spread more easily, which scientists say will rapidly lead to many more cases, deaths and hospitalizations.

But Bogdan said that if SARS-CoV-2 becomes uncontrollable by current vaccines, or if new vaccines are needed to deal with other emerging viruses, then USC's AI-assisted method can be used to design other preventive mechanisms quickly.

For example, the study explains that the USC scientists used only one B-cell epitope and one T-cell epitope, whereas applying a bigger dataset and more possible combinations can develop a more comprehensive and quicker vaccine design tool. The study estimates the method can perform accurate predictions with over 700,000 different proteins in the dataset.

"The proposed vaccine design framework can tackle the three most frequently observed mutations and be extended to deal with other potentially unknown mutations," Bogdan said.

The raw data for the research comes from a giant bioinformatics database called the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB) in which scientists around the world have been compiling data about the , among other diseases. IEDB contains over 600,000 known epitopes from some 3,600 different species, along with the Virus Pathogen Resource, a complementary repository of information about pathogenic viruses. The genome and spike protein sequence of SARS-CoV-2 comes from the National Center for Biotechnical Information.

COVID-19 has led to 87 million cases and more than 1.88 million deaths worldwide, including more than 400,000 fatalities in the United States. It has devastated the social, financial and political fabric of many countries.

The study authors are Bogdan, Zikun Yang and Shahin Nazarian of the Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at USC Viterbi.


Risk of new SARS-CoV-2 mutations emerging during chronic infection

 SARS-CoV-2 mutations similar to those in the B1.1.7 UK variant could arise in cases of chronic infection, where treatment over an extended period can provide the virus multiple opportunities to evolve, say scientists.

Writing in Nature, a team led by Cambridge researchers report how they were able to observe SARS-CoV-2 mutating in the case of an immunocompromised patient treated with convalescent plasma. In particular, they saw the emergence of a key mutation also seen in the new variant that led to the UK being forced once again into strict lockdown, though there is no suggestion that the variant originated from this patient.

Using a synthetic version of the  Spike protein created in the lab, the team showed that specific changes to its genetic code—the mutation seen in the B1.1.7 variant—made the virus twice as infectious on cells as the more common strain.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is a betacoronavirus. Its RNA—its —is comprised of a series of nucleotides (chemical structures represented by the letters A, C, G and U). As the virus replicates itself, this code can be mis-transcribed, leading to errors, known as mutations. Coronaviruses have a relatively modest mutation rate at around 23 nucleotide substitutions per year.

Of particular concern are mutations that might change the structure of the 'spike protein', which sits on the surface of the virus, giving it its characteristic crown-like shape. The virus uses this protein to attach to the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the host's cells, allowing it entry into the cells where it hijacks their machinery to allow it to replicate and spread throughout the body. Most of the current vaccines in use or being trialed target the spike protein and there is concern that mutations may affect the efficacy of these vaccines.

UK researchers within the Cambridge-led COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium have identified a particular variant of the virus that includes important changes that appear to make it more infectious: the ΔH69/ΔV70 amino acid deletion in part of the spike protein is one of the key changes in this variant.

Although the ΔH69/ΔV70 deletion has been detected multiple times, until now, scientists had not seen them emerge within an individual. However, in a study published today in Nature, Cambridge researchers document how these mutations appeared in a COVID-19 patient admitted to Addenbrooke's Hospital, part of Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

The individual concerned was a man in his seventies who had previously been diagnosed with marginal B cell lymphoma and had recently received chemotherapy, meaning that that his  was seriously compromised. After admission, the patient was provided with a number of treatments, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and convalescent plasma—that is, plasma containing antibodies taken from the blood of a patient who had successfully cleared the virus from their system. Despite his condition initially stabilizing, he later began to deteriorate. He was admitted to the intensive care unit and received further treatment, but later died.

During the patient's stay, 23 viral samples were available for analysis, the majority from his nose and throat. These were sequenced as part of COG-UK. It was in these sequences that the researchers observed the virus's genome mutating.

Between days 66 and 82, following the first two administrations of convalescent sera, the team observed a dramatic shift in the virus population, with a variant bearing ΔH69/ΔV70 deletions, alongside a mutation in the spike protein known as D796H, becoming dominant. Although this variant initially appeared to die away, it re-emerged again when the third course of remdesivir and convalescent plasma therapy were administered.

Professor Ravi Gupta from the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology & Infectious Disease, who led the research, said: "What we were seeing was essentially a competition between different variants of the virus, and we think it was driven by the convalescent plasma therapy.

"The virus that eventually won out—which had the D796H mutation and ΔH69/ΔV70 deletions—initially gained the upper hand during convalescent plasma therapy before being overtaken by other strains, but re-emerged when the therapy was resumed. One of the mutations is in the new UK variant, though there is no suggestion that our patient was where they first arose."

Under strictly-controlled conditions, the researchers created and tested a synthetic version of the virus with the ΔH69/ΔV70 deletions and D796H mutations both individually and together. The combined mutations made the virus less sensitive to neutralization by , though it appears that the D796H mutation alone was responsible for the reduction in susceptibility to the antibodies in the plasma. The D796H mutation alone led to a loss of infection in absence of plasma, typical of mutations that viruses acquire in order to escape from immune pressure.

The researchers found that the ΔH69/ΔV70 deletion by itself made the virus twice as infectious as the previously dominant variant. The researchers believe the role of the deletion was to compensate for the loss of infectiousness due to the D796H mutation. This paradigm is classic for viruses, whereby escape mutations are followed by or accompanied by compensatory .

"Given that both vaccines and therapeutics are aimed at the spike protein, which we saw mutate in our patient, our study raises the worrying possibility that the virus could mutate to outwit our vaccines," added Professor Gupta.

"This effect is unlikely to occur in patients with functioning immune systems, where viral diversity is likely to be lower due to better immune control. But it highlights the care we need to take when treating immunocompromised patients, where prolonged viral replication can occur, giving greater opportunity for the virus to mutate."

More information: Kemp, SA et al. SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection. Nature; 5 Feb; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03291-y

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-highlights-sars-cov-mutations-emerging-chronic.html