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Monday, April 22, 2024

' "Reality Check" - JP Morgan Warns Of Delay To Global Energy Transition'

 by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Inflation, interest rates, and wars may well delay the energy transition by quite a long time, JP Morgan has warned in a call for “a reality check” on its shift from hydrocarbons to alternatives.


While the target to net zero is still some time away, we have to face up to the reality that the variables have changed,” the bank’s head of global energy strategy, Christyan Malek, told the Financial Times.

Malek was the lead author of a new report by JP Morgan focusing on energy.

The report noted higher interest rates, inflation, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East were all factors acting as setbacks for the transition.

The report—and Malek’s FT interview—coincided with another report, by Reuters, quoting Rystad Energy analysts as warning about the negative effects of higher interest rates on wind and solar energy developers.

"Owing to the capital-intensive (Capex) nature of renewable energy...they are inherently more susceptible to high-interest rates," Rystad Energy’s head of renewables and power, Vegard Wiik Vollset, said.

Wood Mackenzie has also warned that higher rates are having a negative effect on the economics of wind and solar, as a 2% rate increase can push the levelized cost of electricity for these two sources as much as 20% higher.

“Interest rates are much higher,” JP Morgan’s Malek also said, speaking to the Financial Times.

“Government debt is significantly greater and the geopolitical landscape is structurally different. The $3tn to $4tn it will cost each year come in a different macro environment.”

Because of these challenges, Malek forecasts that governments will dial down the push to transition from oil and gas to wind and solar as their financial resources dwindle.

The FT noted as an example the Scottish parliament’s recent decision to abandon a 75% emission reduction target by 2030 admitting it could not be achieved.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reality-check-jp-morgan-warns-delay-global-energy-transition

Cigna, Humana Merger Deal ‘Math Now Works,’ Jefferies Says

 

  • Price for Humana of about $420 per share is plausible: Windley
  • Humana stock is down 31% since November talks, Cigna up 37%

Cigna Group could resume its abandoned pursuit of Humana Inc. after the stock prices have moved to the point where a deal makes financial sense, according to Jefferies.

The two companies had reportedly been discussing a cash-and-stock deal in November, but talks fell through when the sides couldn’t agree on a price. But now, with Humana’s stock down about 31% since then and Cigna’s up 37%, an acquisition seems plausible, analyst David Windley wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/cigna-humana-merger-deal-math-now-works-jefferies-says

The Key To A Successful Life

 Let's start with the conclusion:  The only path to a successful life is to live a success-full life.

I've been reading a number of books summarizing recent research in positive psychology and will sharing the major conclusions in my next book.

One conclusion especially stands out:  The various attitudes and activities that lead to a happy and fulfilling life--love and social connections; spirituality; gratitude; physical health; achievement; self-acceptance--all are developed by actively exercising them.

If we challenge ourselves in our work, relationships, mindset, and physical development, we can live a life that is successful, because it is success-full.

Living life consciously and intentionally takes a hell of a lot more than sitting for a few minutes and doing meditation exercises.

Living life purposefully means that we create challenges and goals in every area of life that matters to us.  

All of life is a gym.

One question matters:  What is today's workout?



https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-key-to-successful-life.html

Former Obama White House Senior Policy Advisor Charged With 'Child Sex Offenses'

 A 46-year-old former senior policy advisor the Obama administration appeared in a UK court over child sex offense charges.

Rahamim 'Rami' Shy, who worked for the White House under both President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, is accused of arranging the commission of a child sex offense, possessing two 'category C indecent images of children, and 'possessing a prohibited image of a child,' the Daily Mail reports.

Shy, a US citizen who lives in New Jersey, was arrested in late February by Bedfordshire police and charged the next day. On Friday, he appeared at Luton Crown Court via video-link from Bedford prison wearing a gray prison-issue tracksuit, and will remain in custody ahead of a June hearing.

Most recently employed as an executive at banking group Citi, Shy worked in a senior role at the US Treasury department from 2008 to 2014, advising officials on countering the financing of terrorism and assisting foreign governments to impose sanctions on hostile regimes. As well as working as a senior adviser to the late US diplomat Richard Holbrooke, who served under the last three Democrat presidents, Shy provided strategic policy analysis to chiefs of staff at the US Department of Defence.

He was deployed to Afghanistan to provide expertise to the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which was set up to maintain stability following the America-led invasion of the country. -Daily Mail

According to Holbrooke, Hillary Clinton personally knew Shy (6:45 mark), who spoke along John Podesta and other notables at a 2009 Center for American Progress discussion about security challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Shy appears to have deleted his X and LinkedIn accounts.

Shy poses during Army ROTC Commissioning Ceremony at Columbia University

US Poised To Send 60 Additional 'Military Advisers' To Ukraine

 by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US is considering increasing its small military presence in Ukraine by sending up to 60 additional military advisers, POLITICO reported on Saturday, the same day the House approved $61 billion in spending for the proxy war.

Four unnamed US officials told POLITICO that the additional troops would "support logistics and oversight efforts for the weapons the US is sending Ukraine."

Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the potential deployment would augment US personnel based at the US Embassy in Kyiv.

"Throughout this conflict, the DOD has reviewed and adjusted our presence in-country as security conditions have evolved. Currently, we are considering sending several additional advisers to augment the Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC) at the Embassy," Ryder said.

Back in October 2022, the Pentagon announced that ODC and defense attaché personnel were back in Ukraine after being absent for the first few months of Russia’s invasion.

The Pentagon said at the time that the personnel were conducting "onsite" inspections of US-provided weapons.

Ryder said the ODC "performs a variety of advisory and support missions (non-combat), and while it is staffed exclusively by DOD personnel, it is embedded within the US Embassy, under Chief of Mission authority like the rest of the Embassy."

Ryder said the advisers would serve in a non-combat role, but the deployment would still mark an escalation of US involvement in the war and reflect the US’s long-term plans for the conflict. The US has sought to emphasize that they will not participate in battles.

Besides the ODC and defense attaché, the US also has a small number of special operations forces in Ukraine. The Discord leaks revealed last year that as of March 2023, 14 US special operations troops were in Ukraine. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-poised-send-60-additional-military-advisers-ukraine

A Partnership in Eldercare

 In February, an elderly New Yorker had a medical emergency and was saved by an AI speaker.

This good news from the New York Post is bad news for the state of eldercare. With others expressing hope that similar devices will provide medical care and companionship for seniors, our reliance on AI is a grim reminder that we’re in the midst of an eldercare crisis.

The man, Doo Soo Yoo, was home alone when the speaker notified his care team that he went silent. His AI speakers was provided free of cost through a state grant looking to address the shortage of care workers and “skyrocketing isolation and depression.” Helpful as such devices may be, no machine can ever fulfil the need for human care.

To treat our elders with the reverence and dignity that they’re owed, families must overcome the unique sex-based challenges that men and women experience when fulfilling their caregiving duties. Meanwhile, our elected officials must reform social programs to create a family-friendly culture. These partnerships will replace the dystopian vision of AI in every home with one in which men like Doo Soo Yoo have someone by their side. 

The Perfect Storm

In the not-so-distant past, Americans saw caring for the elderly as an obligation born out of reciprocity and reverence. As the late family historian Tamara Hareven observed in the Annual Review of Sociology, “In the regime of economic insecurity characteristic of the nineteenth century and the first part of [the twentieth] century, kin assistance was the only constant source of support.” In this more interdependent era, adult children needed their parents just as much as their parents needed them. What’s more, people also cared for senior citizens outside of their families. Hareven wrote that the boarding system was common for young couples seeking affordable rent, and the elderly rented out space “in exchange for money or assistance” and to “avert loneliness.”

Given the intergenerational ties among both kin and strangers, it’s no wonder that nineteenth-century Americans revered senior citizens. A study in the Journals of Gerontology analyzes key words used to describe the elderly across a 210-year period starting in 1810. During the nineteenth century, common words in newspapers, magazines, and books were those related to “kinship,” “love,” “honor,” and “veneration.” These words are fitting. Eldercare is a privilege that repays the elderly after their lifetime of service to their families and communities, and it’s a recognition that, because each person has inherent worth, everyone deserves care. 

In our own time, economic, demographic, and cultural changes have created a perfect storm, demolishing the communal support once available to older Americans. After the United States industrialized, economic opportunities put geographic distance between parents and their adult children. The nuclear family replaced the multi-generational household, and senior citizens eventually became the main victims of the loneliness epidemic.

Smaller families and an aging population don’t help matters. Without intervention, by 2060 approximately one in four people will be over 65 years old. According to United Nations estimates, “almost one half of the world’s population” lives in a country with birth rates below the replacement rate. As life expectancy rises and populations age, there are fewer and fewer young people to provide care to the aging.

Even though most seniors prefer to age in place, their intense medical needs can make at-home care impractical. Today’s seniors benefit from life-extending modern medicine, but they are also suffering from neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s at increasing rates. For seniors with particularly complex needs, institutional care might be the best option.

Families that are willing and able to provide at-home care still struggle to afford it. The average social security payment “will only cover approximately two-thirds of the cost of having a part-time [my emphasis] home health aide.” Seniors also rely on Medicaid (health insurance for low-income citizens) and Medicare (health insurance for citizens over 65). However, the benefits of these programs differ by state. They will often pay professionals to provide intermittent, home-based medical care, but they will not necessarily pay for help with daily tasks, such as cooking and bathing.

Meanwhile, caregivers are in a tricky position in relation to their own retirement. Those who leave the workforce to care for others put a pause on their Social Security contributions, and Congress isn’t exactly leaping into action to help.

The Second “Second Shift”

Women and men tend to experience the problems caused by aging populations, expensive care, and atomized societies differently. Since the 1980s, sociologists have documented working moms’ “second shift”: the 24.5 hours a week that they spend on childcare and household chores, in addition to their paid work. Members of “the sandwich generation” (adults who care for both aging parents and young children) often work yet another shift.

Research from the University of Michigan shows that the majority of sandwich generation caregivers are women, a finding that holds true for caregiving more generally. Providers of eldercare dedicate “an average of 3.6 hours” a day to the task. In other words, the combined eldercare, childcare, and household chores performed by the sandwich generation equal a full-time job. Although most sandwich generation caregivers also work outside the home, not all can continue their paid work. 2021 survey data indicates that one in five “employees have had to quit their job to care for a loved one,” and other research shows that women quit more often than men.

The demands of early motherhood often lead women to lean out of the workforce after the birth of a child. Later in life, women are usually the ones who lean out once again if someone else needs care. Families with both sons and daughters tend to look to daughters for caregiving. The American Sociological Association (ASA) published a strongly-worded article in 2014, titled “Daughters provide as much elderly parent care as they can, sons do as little as possible.” Dr. Darby Morhardt suggests that patterns in personality differences may play a role here. Whether due to nature, nurture, or a combination of the two, female caregivers “appear to be more concerned about the emotional well-being of people for whom they provide care,” and they “express [a] greater sense of responsibility towards family member[s],” accompanying a sense of “altruism and self-sacrifice.”

But eldercare can overwhelm women who go it alone. Meager tools and resources exist, and adults often refuse what little help there is. While children’s dependency is expected, elderly dependents often feel ashamed of the dependence on others—particularly in cultures that valorize autonomy. The elderly, for example, will often refrain from using a wheelchair or walker in public, even if they need it. Likewise, caregivers can feel uncomfortable in making decisions for their elderly loved ones. Caregivers might see an elderly family member as existing in a liminal space—somewhere between an adult who’s used to making choices independently and a dependent who needs help making choices. In the rare places where there’s financial support for eldercare, families must get past the sense that adult day care is patronizing (as evidenced by the many blog posts and articles on convincing reluctant seniors to go).

Many women spend most of their adult lives as caregivers, and they need men’s help. Eldercare is a group effort, and male-female solidarity is especially important in the absence of state support for caregivers.

Of Sons and Husbands

For men, who make up an estimated 39 percent of caregivers for the elderly, their sex-based challenges can leave them struggling in silence. 

As Richard Reeves argued in Of Boys and Men, overemphasis on male privilege can sideline the discussion of legitimate problems faced by men. One of the ways that men are falling behind is their underrepresentation in what Reeves calls the HEAL professions (health, education, administration, and literacy). Men are hurt by this underrepresentation because they benefit from  receiving care from other men. Reeves notes in Time that men might prefer same-sex help in personal care tasks like using the restroom, and a study in the journal The Gerontologist recommends adding male staff to nursing homes to address men’s dissatisfaction with these facilities.

When it comes to unpaid caregiving, men’s social ties (or lack thereof) determine how they give and receive care. Lois M. Collins notes that sons and husbands who act as caregivers need help, too, but they often hesitate to ask. Men are less likely than women to call on friends and family or to tell their employer about their caregiving role and how it might impact their work. For all their stoicism, “sons reported experiencing the ‘highest emotional and financial strain levels.’”

In The Atlantic, Chiara Dello Joio suggests another way that men’s social ties influence eldercare. Families have a “matrilineal advantage,” with children spending more time and having stronger bonds with maternal aunts, uncles, cousins, and grandparents. A study in Gerontology suggests that the matrilineal advantage influences eldercare. In a survey of married adults, responses “indicated that adult sons reported providing more support for their parents-in-law (i.e., wives’ parents) than adult daughters provided to their parents-in-law.” The matrilineal advantage could also leave men without the help they need when caring for their own parents, since they are less likely to have maintained strong ties with their extended family members.

Modernity has exacerbated the sex-based challenges of eldercare. The large extended families that once helped women fulfill their responsibilities no longer exist. In an atomized society, men hesitate to ask for help from those with whom they do not have strong bonds. But when men and women work together, their complementary skills ensure that seniors receive holistic care, or care that meets their physical and emotional needs.

Reframing care as a privilege, as an act of love, relies on a set of solutions ranging in complexity, from enlisting teenagers and developing apps to reforming Social Security and adopting multigenerational living.

Searching for Solutions

The forces that weakened family and community and spawned the eldercare crisis won’t go away overnight. Because making sweeping cultural changes is an uphill battle, what people must do to rebuild family and community might sound simplistic: Get married! Have bigger families! Join a bowling league!

So, instead of doing the slow, quiet, cultural work that will alleviate the root causes of seniors’ suffering, Western nations are foolishly rushing to apply a band-aid. Though historically assisted suicide was most often a response to physical pain, today patients are frequently responding to psychic pain when they seek so-called “death with dignity” or “medical aid in dying.” In countries and states where the practice is legal, “the dominant motivations for requesting euthanasia,” says medical ethicist Ezekiel Emanuel  “are loss of autonomy and dignity, the inability to enjoy life and regular activities, or other mental illnesses, rather than physical pain.”

Ideally, caregivers would help seniors find new sources of joy when their declining health affects their favorite activities. Caregivers would challenge seniors’ self-conception as “burdens” and remind them that they’re entitled to care after spending most of their lives caring for others. By contrast, the assisted suicide regime offers seniors a cheap yet morally bankrupt solution. Assisted suicide treats the markers of old age—such as a decline in activity or loss of autonomy—as signs that a life is no longer worth living.

To respond effectively to the crisis in eldercare and affirm the dignity of seniors, we must draw on the respective strengths of the sexes while acknowledging how their differences lead to gaps in care. One form of partnership between men and women might involve wives leaning out at the beginning of their careers and husbands leaning out at the end. A woman might go part-time or exit the workforce altogether for five or ten years while her children are young. She could then re-enter the workforce when her children enter school. A man, meanwhile, might go part-time or retire five to ten years early to care for elderly relatives while his wife works.

In addition to Medicaid and Medicare reform, awarding social security credits for unpaid caregiving would make this coordination between men and women easier. A bill reintroduced by Connecticut’s Christopher Murphy in the U.S. Senate would allow caregivers to enjoy the same retirement benefits as those who work full-time. Changes like these would help men and women share in the rewards of a career and care, with neither feeling shortchanged by a trade-off between aspiration and duty.

Although technology should not be used to replace human connection, it can and should be harnessed to facilitate it. To forge social ties, a tech-savvy person might create an app that connects volunteers to nearby seniors who need care and companionship. Very few senior-specific apps exist. If it were sufficiently user-friendly, such an app could facilitate both in-person interactions and the analog communication that’s more familiar to seniors. The app would combine the features of apps like Taskrabbit and Ameelio. Nursing home or home health staff, family members, pastors, or social workers could register those in their care. Whether someone wants a pen pal, someone to talk to on the phone, or help around the house, this app would find people who are committed to sharing their time but don’t know who in their community needs assistance.

Another lifestyle change holds great promise, yet it goes against the very idea of the American Dream: the multi-generational household. A home of one’s own is a marker of affluence, and it can be difficult to let go of the illusion of self-sufficiency. In nations where people can live anywhere, a multigenerational household might violate a well-to-do family’s notions of privacy and privilege, even though the luxury of closing a door is, historically speaking, a fairly recent one. Yet the multigenerational household has so many benefits. It creates a continuum of care: grandparents and parents help care for young children, and then grown children care for parents and grandparents. Dependency slowly shifts from the young to the old, so recipients of care—who have likely looked after their caregivers at some point—don’t feel like a burden.

Although there is still much work to be done, solutions like these hold promise for addressing the eldercare crisis. Already, many quiet, everyday heroes are stepping up. I think, for example, of the shuttle driver I met who takes care of his grandmother because—despite the research on women as the default caregivers—none of her three daughters would.

We must work together to transform our culture. By changing policy, coordinating care with a spouse, or helping a neighbor in need, we can all help each other remember that showing love and gratitude to seniors is all of our responsibility.


https://fairerdisputations.org/eldercare/


CBD Flops Big Time For Pain

 Introducing CBD (cannabidiol), the latest fad in the ever-expanding universe of pseudo-medicine! It's the "miracle" cure that's as easy to buy as a candy bar – and about as effective as wishing on a shooting star. Americans, denied effective pain medicine and desperate for relief from their aches and pains, are jumping on the CBD bandwagon faster than you can say "snake oil." But the truth about this so-called remedy is about to hit harder than a reality check at a fantasy convention.

Just what pain patients didn't need: Another useless substitute for real pain medication. This time, it's the wildly overhyped CBD (cannabidiol) oil that took the hit, courtesy of a new paper in the Journal of Pain in which Andrew Moore and colleagues from the University of Alberta conducted a meta-analysis of 16 randomized controlled clinical trials where the drug was tested against various pain-related conditions. Unsurprisingly, it pretty much bombed with one possible exception. The title alone, Cannabidiol (CBD) Products for Pain: Ineffective, Expensive, and With Potential Harms, speaks volumes.

No one should be surprised that CBD didn't make the cut as a pain therapy. The pseudo-drug has been claimed to have utility for nearly every malady suffered by humans and other beasts. In his article, Moore comments on the ubiquity of unsubstantiated claims (1) made about CBD. (There are claims for at least 10 different conditions that can be found on Twitter alone.) 

[Online] outlets often remain unchecked and unbalanced and appear to be aimed at promoting revenue rather than safe practice. Consumers (people living with pain), their careers, and their professional advisers need more balanced, evidence-informed consumer advice. That can now be provided.

Moore, et. al., The Journal of Pain

Furthermore, the authors expressed skepticism about the contents of the bottle, a concern I have addressed multiple times about dietary supplements."

The U.S. analysis of 105 products found that only 1 in 4 products were accurately labeled for CBD, 1 in 5 had less than 90% of the advertised CBD, and 1 in 2 had more than 110%. The range indicated that CBD content varied from almost nothing to very large amounts.

Nice.

Meta-analysis of RCTs

The group searched PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov for randomized, double-blind trials conducted since 2019 in which CBD (at any dose and through any means of administration) was compared to a placebo for any painful condition. Sixteen trials met these criteria.

Results: CBD has little or no effect on pain

Below is a brief summary (Table 1) of trials included in the meta-analysis and their results.

We can graphically visualize these results in Table 1 – a Forest plot.

Source: Moore et al., The Journal of Pain, Vol 25, No. 4 (April), 2024: pp 833–842.

Figure 1. A Forest plot of the 16 trials that met the meta-analysis criteria. The area to the left of the vertical zero line indicates trials where CBD outperformed placebo (one). The area to the right indicates trials where placebo outperformed CBD (none). When a hatch-mark touches (or crosses) the vertical zero line, the results are not significant. Only one (green oval) of 16 trials – topical CBD oil for arthritic thumb pain – showed a significant advantage of CBD over placebo, but it should be noted that this trial had only 18 participants. 

Summary

Moore and colleagues not only demonstrated the lack of utility of CBD but also opined that the drug is essentially being given a free pass and that this will ultimately harm people suffering from pain. 

[It is unclear] why there is tolerance for the marketing and use of a product without proven benefit but with risk of harm to a large population of people suffering from debilitating pain. This may be due to a misplaced perception of safety [or] a desire of governments to create markets in what is perceived as a new area for national gross domestic product (GDP) growth... What we do know is that if we collude in pretending that we have treatments, we are not facing up to the need for investment in analgesic discovery and innovation. It is sobering to reflect that changes to state medical cannabis laws in the United States to allow greater use have had no important impact on the rate of opioid or nonopioid prescribing or procedures. [emphasis added]

In other words, CBD joins the growing list of drugs that are either ineffective in treating pain, potentially dangerous, or both. But as long as opioids are not used, I guess that's OK.

NOTE:

(1) There is a pharmaceutical-grade CBD (brand name Epidiolex), which is approved only for seizures.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/04/10/cbd-flops-big-time-pain-17761