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Thursday, January 9, 2025

China Evergrande’s Key Unit Ordered to Liquidate by HK Court

 A key offshore subsidiary of China Evergrande Group was ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court, marking the latest legal win for liquidators who are trying to access the defaulted builder’s key assets.

A year ago, China Evergrande Group was ordered to be wound up in Hong Kong, and its liquidators subsequently filed the petition against its subsidiary CEG Holdings BVI Ltd. in September.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/china-evergrande-s-key-unit-ordered-to-liquidate-by-hk-court

Alaska Sues Federal Government Over Curbs To Oil And Gas Leases

 by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

The state of Alaska is suing the federal government over the Department of Interior’s (DOI) alleged “unlawful detour” in restricting oil and gas lease auctions to about 400,000 acres within the 19.6-million acre Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor filed the lawsuit on Jan. 7 in anticipation of the DOI’s Jan. 8 announcement that the Bureau of Land Management had received “no interest” from oil companies in bidding for leases within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) coastal plain.

Alaska maintains that by restricting leases to 400,000 acres, the administration violated the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which required the DOI to conduct two lease auctions within Section 1002—a 1.5-million acre expanse opened for potential oil and gas development by Congress in 1980.

The state argues that the DOI essentially sabotaged bidding by imposing “new severe restrictions on surface use and occupancy” in November that made “any development economically and practically impossible” when implemented in December as the lease auction opened. When the auction closed on Jan. 6, no bids were submitted.

Taylor alleged in a statement announcing the lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court in Anchorage, that the agencies “ignored the law and took this unlawful detour without even presenting their final decision to the public for comment.”

The Jan. 8 legal challenge follows Alaska’s July 2, 2024, lawsuit over what it said was “billions in lost revenue” from nine canceled federal oil and gas leases in the ANWR’s coastal plain. That action is pending.

In 2023, the DOI suspended already-issued Section 1002 leases, citing insufficient legal analyses and commissioning another study to reassess the potential environmental impacts of the ANWR oil and gas leasing program.

The expired Jan. 6 bid deadline concluded the second Congressionally mandated sale required by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which directed the Bureau of Land Management to hold two lease sales within seven years of enactment.

The first sale, held during the Trump administration, “similarly demonstrated low interest, yielding a total of $14.4 million in high bids on 11 tracts,” the DOI said, noting that Congress grossly overvalued the revenues from the two lease sales, projecting they would generate approximately $2 billion over 10 years.

Alaska officials said they are concerned that the “last-minute actions to restrict and complicate” oil and gas development with ANWR’s Section 1002 dissuaded bidding.

Alaska Department of Natural Resources Commissioner John Boyle said the November restrictions have created “total dysfunction.”

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy said “Interior’s continued and irrational opposition under the Biden administration to responsible energy development in the Arctic continues America on a path of energy dependence instead of utilizing the vast resources we have available,”

In December, the Republican governor called on President-elect Donald Trump to scuttle the existing restrictions and create a cabinet-level task force specifically to address Alaska oil and gas development.

Trump has vowed to do away with the ANWR restrictions with a “Day One” executive order. Dunleavy said the lawsuit is still necessary.

“We have already heard comments from the incoming president that his administration will, thankfully, take a different tack and open up those areas that are meant to be developed,” he said. “But unfortunately, we can’t wait for that—we have to challenge this unlawful action now.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/alaska-sues-federal-government-over-curbs-oil-and-gas-leases

Chinese Traders’ Demand for Global Stocks Prompt Rare ETF Halts

 


  • Two China ETFs tracking overseas shares suspended from trading
  • The ETFs’ premiums spiked as traders seek returns abroad

Chinese investors’ fierce appetite for overseas shares has triggered rare, full-day suspensions on a pair of exchange-traded funds tracking global equities.

The Invesco Great Wall S and P Consumer Select ETF QDII and Harvest Der Dax ETF QDII have been suspended from trading until further notice after their premiums soared, according to exchange filings issued after market hours on Thursday. This marks an escalated degree of risk warning to investors, as halts on such funds usually last for an hour.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/chinese-traders-demand-for-global-stocks-prompt-rare-etf-halts

Edison International, other utilities to trade at discount on fire risk, analysts say

 Edison International (EIX.N) and other utilities are expected to trade at a wider discount to the benchmark S&P 500 utilities index (.SPLRCU) than before as wildfires burning across California underscore the risks of natural disasters on their businesses, Jefferies analysts said in a note on Thursday.

While there has been no determination of the cause of the Southern California wildfires, destructive U.S. blazes in the past have been linked to power infrastructure, leading to devastating financial and legal problems for utilities. Power lines and other systems can also be damaged in fires, adding to potential costs.
Multiple wildfires surrounding Los Angeles and other areas have killed at least five people, destroyed hundreds of homes and stretched firefighting resources.
The California Wildfire Fund provides financing to reimburse eligible claims arising from a wildfire caused by a utility. It acts as a mechanism for utilities to recover certain costs and expenses arising from wildfire-related maintenance and repair costs
Jefferies highlighted that as of Dec. 12, 2024, the fund has about $14.7-billion capitalization, though it has the ability to issue secured debt for amounts exceeding its liquidity.
Edison has an after-tax liability cap of roughly $3.2 billion, according to Jefferies. The brokerage notes the utilities' shares could be at risk if liabilities for the fires breach the fund size.
Jefferies analysts said even if utility infrastructure was found to not be involved in the fire, utilities are expected to trade at a wider discount than before.
"(If) the number of structures and damage estimates gets unwieldy high approaching the roughly $15-billion current fund size, investors will likely get nervous on incremental exposure."
Edison International did not respond to a request for comment.
Shares of Edison International, which had cut off power for nearly 157,315 customers, closed over 10% lower on Wednesday.
PG&E Corp (PCG.N) w, opens new tabhich had over 3,000 customers without power, closed 3.6% lower.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edison-international-other-utilities-trade-discount-fire-risk-analysts-say-2025-01-09/

Scientific Publications Face Credibility Crisis

 The quality and credibility of scientific publications have received increasing scrutiny. Findings from studies by Maria Ángeles Oviedo-García, PhD, from the Department of Business and Marketing at the University of Seville, Seville, Spain, highlight growing concerns about the integrity of published research. Insights from the journal Science and the US blog Retraction Watch reveal similar concerns regarding research integrity.

AI Spurs Low-Quality Submissions

According to a report in Science, journals are inundated with low-quality contributions such as letters and comments generated by AI. Daniel Prevedello, MD, editor in chief of Neurosurgical Review, announced that the journal would temporarily stop accepting these submissions due to their poor quality.

Neurosurgical Review is not the only journal to experience low-quality submissions. In the journal Oral Oncology Reports (Elsevier), comments comprised 70% of the content, whereas in the International Journal of Surgery Open (Wolters Kluwer), they accounted for nearly half. In Neurosurgical Review, letters, comments, and editorials made up 58% of the total content from January to October 2024 compared with only 9% in the previous year.

This trend benefits authors by allowing them to inflate their publication lists with quickly produced contributions that bypass peer review. Publishers may also profit, as many charge fees to publish comments. Additionally, universities and research institutions find this type of content generation useful as more publications can enhance their reputation.

Concerns Over Peer Reviews

The troubling behavior described by Oviedo-García in the journal Scientometrics raises further doubts. An analysis of 263 peer reviews from 37 journals revealed that reviewers often used identical or very similar phrases in their evaluations, regardless of the content. In one case, the reviewer used the same wording in 52 reviews. This suggests that some reviewers read the studies that they are supposed to evaluate only superficially. Such practices can lead to valueless reviews and jeopardize the integrity of scientific literature. “Some other researchers will probably base their future research on these fake reports, which is frightening, especially when it comes to health and medicine,” Oviedo-García stated.

She suspects that the reviewers may have relied on templates to produce their reports quickly. This allowed them to list this work on their resumes for potential career advantages. Some reviewers have reportedly even "requested" the authors of the studies they reviewed to cite their own scientific work.

AI Complicates Peer Review

The process of research and publication has become increasingly challenging in recent years, and more standard and predatory journals allow anyone to publish their work for a fee. Roger W. Byard, MD, PhD, from The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia, explained this trend in the journal Forensic Science, Medicine and Pathology. AI is increasingly being used to generate articles. At international conferences, experts have highlighted claims that AI can complete papers in just a few weeks and dissertations in less than a year. According to the authors of a letter in Critical Care, generative AI is infiltrating the peer review process.

Moreover, the peer review process can be bypassed by publishing research findings on online platforms (eg, preprint servers). Another issue is that some publications have hundreds of authors who can extend their publication list in this manner, even if their contribution to the publication is ambiguous or not substantial.

In a guest article for the LaborjournalUlrich Dirnagl, MD, PhD, from the Charité — Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany, emphasized that the scientific papers have become so complex that two or three experts often cannot thoroughly assess everything presented. The review process is time-consuming and can take several days for reviewers. Currently, very few people have time, especially because it is an unpaid and anonymous task. Dirnagl stated, "The self-correction of science no longer works as it claims."

The old Russian saying ‘Dowjerjaj, no prowjerjaj: Trust, but verify’  remains a timeless recommendation that is likely to stay relevant for years to come.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/scientific-publications-face-credibility-crisis-2025a10000fb

Milk, Calcium Intake Tied to Lower Colon Cancer Risk

 Consumption of dairy products, particularly milk, had a significant association with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in women, data from a large British cohort study suggested.

For every 300 mg of daily calcium intake, the risk of CRC decreased by 17%, the strongest inverse association identified among almost 100 dietary factors analyzed. A genetics-based analysis of milk consumption reinforced a significant association with reduced CRC risk.

The study, involving data for 542,778 women, also corroborated a large volume of existing evidence linking alcohol consumption to a higher risk of CRC, reported Keren Papier, PhD, of the University of Oxford in England, and co-authors in Nature Communicationsopens in a new tab or window.

"In this large prospective study of diet and colorectal cancer, we found a marked positive association for alcohol, and a strong inverse association for calcium," the authors wrote. "Inverse associations were also observed with other dairy-related factors, including dairy milk, yogurt, riboflavin, magnesium, phosphorus, and potassium, which, on further analysis, appeared to be primarily due to the association of these dietary factors with calcium."

"Further evidence for a potentially causal role for calcium in colorectal cancer incidence was provided by an accompanying analysis of genetically predicted milk intake, which is likely to also reflect calcium intake," they added.

The study provided the strongest evidence to date of a protective effect of calcium on CRC risk, according to authoritiesopens in a new tab or window on diet and cancer.

"This major study of over half a million U.K. women provides compelling evidence that dairy consumption, particularly milk and yogurt, is linked to reduced colorectal cancer risk, with the calcium in milk being a likely driver," said Ian Givens, PhD, of the University of Reading in Berkshire, England. "The findings align with previous research and notably used genetic markers of milk consumption to strengthen the conclusions. What's particularly concerning is that many U.K. women, especially younger age groups, are consuming less dairy and have calcium intakes below recommended levels."

Although limited by the observational nature of the study, the results provide direction about dietary modifications that can reduce or increase the risk of CRC, noted Tom Sanders, DSc, PhD, of King's College London.

"In my opinion, the take-home messages of this paper are that drinking above the safe limits of alcohol intake (more than 14 units/week) increases risk of colorectal cancer in women but that drinking about half a pint of cows' milk a day (which would provide about 300 mg calcium) is probably protective," he said.

Andrew Prentice, PhD, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, added that the "results emphasize that milk consumption is particularly beneficial and show evidence that this effect may be largely due to the calcium in milk, begging the question as to whether calcium supplements might be protective. The jury is out on this but as a nutritionist I shall continue to take my calcium from milk and dairy foods, which are rich in so many nutrients."

For individuals who do not drink milk, the study identified other sources of calcium that may help lower the risk of CRC, such as broccoli or tofu, noted Lisa Wilde, PhD, of Bowel Cancer UK.

Despite numerous investigations, the role of dietary factors in CRC risk remains unclear, Papier and co-authors noted in their introduction. The International Agency for Research on Cancer classified alcohol and processed meat as carcinogenic and red meat as "probably carcinogenic," partly on the basis of findings for CRC.

The third expert report from the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research also concluded that "convincing evidence" exists for associations between greater intake of alcohol and processed meat and increased risk of CRC, the authors continued. Additionally, the experts found that dairy products, dairy milk, calcium, calcium supplements, whole grains, and fiber-rich foods "probably" reduce the risk of CRC, and greater intake of red meat "probably" increases the risk.

In an effort to add clarity to relationships between dietary factors and CRC risk, the investigators performed a systematic analysis of 97 dietary factors and their association with CRC risk among 542,778 participants in the Million Women Studyopens in a new tab or window, which documented 12,251 cases of CRC during a mean follow-up of 16.6 years. All participants had completed a detailed dietary questionnaire, and 7% had also completed a 24-hour online dietary assessment.

The analysis identified 17 dietary factors with significant positive or negative associations with CRC (P<0.009). Of the 17 factors, alcohol and calcium intake had the strongest associations. Every 20 mg/day intake of alcohol was associated with a 15% higher risk of developing CRC (95% CI 1.09-1.20, P<0.0000001). In contrast, every 300 mg/day intake of calcium was associated with a statistically significant reduction in CRC risk (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.89, P<0.000001).

Consumption of red and processed meat also increased CRC risk. The remaining factors had negative associations with CRC risk, including dairy milk, phosphorus, riboflavin, whole grains, magnesium, yogurt, folate, carbohydrates, total sugars, vitamin C, fruit, breakfast cereal, potassium, and dietary fiber, which were associated with relative risk values of 0.07-0.83.

Papier and colleagues also performed a Mendelian randomization analysisopens in a new tab or window of milk consumption, a statistical method that uses genetic variants to assess causal relationships. Based on data from three large population-based studies, the analysis showed that the risk of any CRC decreased by 40% with each 200 g/day consumption of dairy milk (95% CI 0.46-0.74), including by 40% for colon cancer (95% CI 0.43-0.77) and 51% for rectal cancer (95% CI 0.31-0.67).

"In addition to confirming the well-established positive associations of alcohol, and red and processed meat consumption, with risk of colorectal cancer, this large prospective analysis provides robust evidence supporting the protective role of dietary calcium," the authors wrote in conclusion. "Additional research is needed to investigate overall health benefits or risks associated with higher calcium intakes."

Disclosures

Papier reported no relevant relationships with industry.

Givens disclosed relationships with multiple dairy associations.

Sanders has consulted with companies and organizations involved in production of ultraprocessed foods.

Prentice reported sitting on the General Nutrition Science Council for the Nestlé Nutrition Institute.

Wilde reported no relevant relationships with industry.

Primary Source

Nature Communications

Source Reference: opens in a new tab or windowPapier K, et al "Diet-wide analyses for risk of colorectal cancer: Prospective study of 12,251 incident cases among 542,778 women in the UK" Nat Comm 2025; DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-55219-5.


https://www.medpagetoday.com/hematologyoncology/coloncancer/113719

Study Questions Genetic Test for Opioid Addiction Risk

 A new study questioned the clinical utility of an algorithm meant to predict opioid use disorder (OUD) risk based on 15 genetic variants.

In a case-control analysis of more than 450,000 adults, the 15 variants collectively accounted for just 0.40% of the variation in OUD risk, according to Henry Kranzler, MD, of the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine in Philadelphia, and co-authors. In comparison, age and sex alone accounted for 3.27% of the variance.

A machine-learning model using the 15 variants as predictive factors correctly identified case and control status 52.83% (95% CI 52.07-53.59) of the time, Kranzler and colleagues reported in JAMA Network Openopens in a new tab or window.

The variants are used in the AvertD test,opens in a new tab or window which the FDA approvedopens in a new tab or window in December 2023 to predict opioid addiction risk.

"These findings underscore the need for more robust and complete data, particularly given the complex nature of psychiatric conditions, including OUD," Kranzler said in a statement. "The potential harms deriving from a faulty genetic test for OUD include both false negatives and false positives."

Andrew Kolodny, MD, an opioid policy expert at Brandeis University in Massachusetts who was not involved with the study, agreed. "This study provides further strong evidence that the FDA made a serious mistake when it approved AvertD," he said.

"The evidence is clear that the test doesn't work. It can't predict OUD any better than a coin flip," Kolodny told MedPage Today.

"Keep in mind that this sham genetic test for OUD is not benign," he added. "A negative result will leave prescribers and patients with a false sense of security about opioid use, and a positive test may frighten people from ever taking an opioid, even when opioid use is beneficial."

Genetic tests for opioid addiction have a checkered historyopens in a new tab or window. Like other tests of complex traits, confoundingopens in a new tab or window is part of the problem.

Last year, a group of 31 physicians and researchers, including Kranzler and Kolodny, called on the FDAopens in a new tab or window to reverse its decision about AvertD. More recently, experts expressed concerns in Lancet Psychiatryopens in a new tab or window about using AvertD in clinical settings.

AvertD detects the presence of 15 single nucleotide variantsopens in a new tab or window (SNVs) to help identify people who may have an increased risk of OUD. It's intended to be used in combination with clinical evaluations and patient assessments when oral prescription opioids are being considered to treat acute pain. The manufacturer reportsopens in a new tab or window an overall sensitivity of 82.8% and specificity of 79.2%.

In their case-control study, Kranzler and colleagues examined the association between the 15 candidate genetic variants and OUD risk using electronic health record data from 452,664 participants in the VA's Million Veteran Programopens in a new tab or window from 1992 to 2022. They also tried to determine whether the 15 SNVs were associated with genetic similarity rather than OUD risk.

All participants had been exposed to opioids. Cases were determined through diagnostic codes; controls had neither an OUD diagnosis code nor prescriptions for medications commonly used to treat OUD.

The sample included 33,669 OUD cases; the mean age was 61 years, and 90.46% were male. Genetically inferred ancestry was 67.46% European, 20.90% African, 9.50% admixed American, 0.81% East Asian, and 0.07% South Asian. While the paper didn't define the admixed American category, it can refer to groups with complex ancestry due to mixing of populations from various continents.

In single-SNV models that did not account for genetic similarity, 13 of 15 SNVs were associated with OUD risk after Bonferroni correction. After including measures of global genetic similarity, that number fell to three.

In test data, a machine-learning model using the 15 variants correctly identified 50.72% of OUD cases (sensitivity) and 54.95% of controls (specificity). Of the model's identified cases, 52.96% were true cases (positive predictive value). Of the identified controls, 52.72% were true controls (negative predictive value).

The study had several limitations, Kranzler and co-authors acknowledged. The models were evaluated using electronic health record diagnosis codes, which may be biased. While the Million Veteran Program sample was predominantly male, the analyses included over 40,000 women, including more than 2,500 women with OUD.

The Million Veteran Program sample also has higher rates of OUD and pain and is older than the general population. "We encourage efforts to evaluate the 15 genetic variants in additional datasets," Kranzler and colleagues said.

In addition, the researchers used genetically inferred ancestry groups as a population descriptor. The Million Veteran Program used array genotyping, which is less accurate than mass spectrometry, and imputation was required for about half of the SNVs.

SOLVD Health, the company that offers AvertD, "is confident in the clinical validity and rigor" of the test, said Ron McCullough, PhD, MBA, its senior vice president of clinical operations. "The researchers in the recent JAMA publication did not have access to our technology; therefore, any comparisons or conclusions in the article to AvertD are invalid," he wrote in an email to MedPage Today.

"The study relied on non-validated data, biased study populations, and methods inconsistent with established research and clinical standards, limiting its applicability," McCullough continued. "These limitations undermine their study's conclusions, which contrast sharply with the robust validation and regulatory review behind AvertD."

Disclosures

This research is based on data from Million Veteran Program of the Veterans Health Administration and was supported by awards from the VA, the VISN 4 Mental Illness Research, Education, and Clinical Center, the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, and the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Kranzler reported receiving personal fees from Altimmune, Clearmind Medicine, Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Entheon Biomedical Corp, Eli Lilly and Company, Sophrosyne Pharmaceuticals, Sobrera Pharma, and the American Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology's Alcohol Clinical Trials Initiative, along with grant funding from Alkermes outside the submitted work and having a patent issued.

Co-authors also reported having patents and outside relationships.

Kolodny has served as an expert witness on behalf of states in the opioid litigation.

Primary Source

JAMA Network Open

Source Reference: opens in a new tab or windowDavis CN, et al "Utility of candidate genes from an algorithm designed to predict genetic risk for opioid use disorder" JAMA Netw Open 2025; DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.53913.


https://www.medpagetoday.com/neurology/opioids/113720