Medicines for obesity, diabetes, rare diseases, cancer, and women's health feature among Clarivate's annual round-up of 11 Drugs to Watch this year, but two of them far outstrip the others in sales potential.
There are no prizes for guessing that the multibillion-dollar predictions go to GLP-1-based therapies for obesity and type 2 diabetes, given the class has dominated the pharma news agenda in the last couple of years. But while the current market is a duopoly dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, Clarivate sees one clear winner in its sales projects in the G7 markets (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US) in 2031.
As we can see from the list below – which considers both the sales potential and the broader impact of new therapies and can be viewed here – that winner is Lilly.
1) Orforglipron
Clarivate is predicting that Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron will bring in a massive $11.1 billion in G7 obesity sales in 2031, with another $5.2 billion from use in type 2 diabetes (T2D). It is one to watch because it avoids the strict dosing requirements of Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy (semaglutide) – which is its main rival and has beaten Lilly's drug to the market – and is also easier and less expensive to produce. Orforglipron is due for an approval decision by the FDA in the second quarter, but, in the meantime, initial take-up data on oral Wegovy is encouraging for Novo Nordisk.
2) Retatrutide
If Clarivate's forecasts for orforglipron are high, they are trumped by its predictions for Lilly's retatrutide, a once-weekly, injectable triple agonist – targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon at the same time – that it predicts will make $10 billion from obesity and a massive $20.1 billion from T2D sales in five years. It looks set to be the first triple therapy to reach the market, and has already pulled off stellar weight reduction in a phase 3 trial, thanks to a mechanism that combines reducing calorie intake and augmenting energy expenditure. Post-2028, retatrutide is expected to become the primary growth driver for the obesity drug market, according to the report.
3) Exdensur (depemokimab)
GSK gets an entry in the list with Exdensur (depemokimab), a twice-yearly injectable IL-5 inhibitor for severe asthma, which picked up its regulatory approvals in the US and UK towards the end of 2025 and could provide greater convenience over current drugs in the class that require monthly or bimonthly dosing. Clarivate reckons it will make $510 million from asthma alone in 2031, thanks to its potential to address adherence barriers for patients, with additional upside from other indications like chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), for which it is also approved in the UK.
4) Icotrokinra
Johnson & Johnson's icotrokinra, an IL-23 receptor antagonist for plaque psoriasis, has been included on the grounds that it combines a tried-and-tested biological mechanism with oral dosing. J&J has shown its confidence in the drug by pitting against Bristol Myers Squibb's oral therapy Sotyktu (deucravacitinib), a TYK2 inhibitor that is the most efficacious oral agent for psoriasis so far, as well as its big-selling injectable therapy, IL-12 and IL-23 inhibitor Stelara (ustekinumab), in head-to-head trials. Assuming those studies deliver positive results, the report predicts G7 sales will reach $1.5 billion.
5) Voyxact (sibeprenlimab)
Otsuka picked up an approval from the FDA for its anti-APRIL antibody Voyxact (sibeprenlimab) in the increasingly crowded immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) market a few weeks ago, becoming the first drug in the class to reach the US market ahead of rival Vera Therapeutics, and Clarivate thinks it could become a $955 million seller in 2031. The drug is a "high-impact, disease-modifying" entrant for the life-threatening kidney disease, addressing a root cause of disease progression, allowing monthly self-administration at home to avoid clinic visits, and "superior efficacy" to current IgAN drugs.
6) Tolebrutinib
Sanofi has high hopes for oral BTK inhibitor tolebrutinib, aiming to be the first drug in the class to be approved for multiple sclerosis, but suffered a setback in its plans when it was turned down by the FDA at the end of last year. Nevertheless, Clarivate thinks it could get a green light in the US as well as Europe this year, and in Japan in 2027, and become the first approved therapy for non-relapsing secondary progressive MS (nrSPMS), and carve out a $1.4 billion slice of the G7 market for MS therapies thanks to the convenience of its oral administration over injectable therapies like Roche's Ocrevus (ocrelizumab).
7) BGB-16673
China's BeOne Medicines makes it into the list with BGB-16673, a BTK-targeting chimeric degradation activation compound (CDAC), suitable for once-daily, oral dosing that could launch from 2027 onwards as a treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL). Early clinical data supports a strong preclinical profile and, if approved, it has the potential to be a "paradigm-changing" treatment for B-cell malignancies, according to Clarivate, which has set its 2031 G7 sales forecast in CLL/SLL at $1.19 billion, given there are limited treatment options in the double- and triple-refractory patient population.
8) Mezigdomide
Bristol Myers Squibb's mezigdomide is described as a second-generation CELMoD (cereblon E3 ligase modulator) – one of three clinical-stage candidates being developed by the drugmaker – and is due to generate results from a pair of phase 3 clinical trials (SUCCESSOR-1 and SUCCESSOR-2) in second-line multiple myeloma later this year. The trio (which also includes iberdomide and golcadomide) are viewed as key for BMS' multiple myeloma franchise, now that its Revlimid (lenalidomide) and Pomalyst (pomalidomide) products, which act via a similar pathway, are coming to the end of their patent lives. Predicted 2031 sales are $1.47 billion.
9) Gedatolisib
Shares in Celcuity skyrocketed last summer when it reported positive data from the phase 3 VIKTORIA-1 study of gedatolisib, an intravenous PI3K/mTOR inhibitor originally developed by Pfizer, for previously treated patients with HR-positive, HER2-negative locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer without PIK3CA mutations. The results showed "unprecedented" reductions in the risk of disease progression or death and median progression-free survival (PFS), according to Clarivate, which notes that a rolling marketing application has been filed in the US. A second phase 3 trial (VIKTORIA-2), due to read out in 2027, could move the drug into the first-line setting. Its ability to address resistance to endocrine therapies when used second-line, and a good safety profile, underpins a forecast of $1.08 billion in 2031 sales.
10) Inlexzo (TAR-200)
Johnson & Johnson's TAR-200 intravesical formulation of gemcitabine, recently approved by the FDA as Inlexzo for BCG-unresponsive high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) with carcinoma in situ (CIS), addresses a significant unmet medical need for effective, less-invasive, bladder-preserving therapies in this type of cancer. It could make G7 sales of $1.8 billion in five years, according to the report, fuelled by monotherapy use and potentially part of combination regimens with therapies including checkpoint inhibitors, although it is facing competition from other novel therapies like ImmunityBio's Anktiva (nogapendekin alfa inbakicep) and Ferring Pharma's Adstiladrin (nadofaragene firadenovec), while CG Oncology's experimental cretostimogene grenadenorepvec is also in late-stage development, with results due in the first half of this year.
11) Relacorilant
Finally, Corcept Therapeutics secures a place on Clarivate's list with relacorilant, a selective glucocorticoid receptor antagonist (SGRA), suitable for oral dosing, that is being developed for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and hypercortisolism (Cushing syndrome). The FDA declined to approve the drug earlier this month for Cushing's, but it is due to deliver a verdict on the ovarian cancer indication in July. Clarivate has pointed to "compelling data" in the ROSELLA study, where its combination with nab-paclitaxel significantly improved PFS and overall survival in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, without increasing toxicity. It is predicting ovarian cancer sales of $150 million in 2031.
https://pharmaphorum.com/news/11-high-impact-drugs-look-out-2026
