US natural gas futures are ripping higher, up roughly 75% in just three trading days, and are on pace to post the largest weekly gain on record.
The move has all the signs of a classic winter-driven short squeeze, with traders scrambling to cover as a polar blast descends into the Lower 48.
An intense Arctic blast and a sprawling winter storm system, drawing comparisons to the Blizzard of '96, are set to sweep across the eastern half of the US this weekend.
Weather models point to prolonged sub-freezing temperatures, raising the risk of freeze-offs in the Appalachian Basin, a critical US NatGas supply region.
Energy research firm Criterion Research was the first to warn that NatGas production disruptions across Appalachia could materially tighten balances at the worst possible time, just as heating demand spikes. Any sustained freeze-offs would not only pressure spot supply but could also stress regional power grids.
Criterion Research explained:
Winter is Coming for Appalachia
This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.
Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in lower and longer than Winter Storm Elliott (Dec 2022.)
During Eliott, regional production dropped 25-30%.
Winter is Coming for Appalachia
— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 22, 2026
This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.
Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in… pic.twitter.com/l2oyl80cfe
We cited Criterion Research on Wednesday (read here), which outlined where the production freeze-offs are likely to emerge.
Production Freeze Offs Coming
— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 21, 2026
The screenshot from our Mapping Analytics Platform below shows all Appalachian production meters in the region (green dots) and processing plants (pink dots) - and the key item to watch is where winter precipitation hits and where the power outages… pic.twitter.com/PjWxQPc3Zo
At least 175 million people across the Lower 48 will face snow, rain, sleet and ice through the weekend as record-breaking cold pours into the eastern half of the US. Below-zero temperatures are expected to boost heating demand at a time when pipeline freeze-offs could disrupt gas production.
We warned on Wednesday:
Recall Winter Storm Uri in 2021, when extreme cold paralyzed the NatGas supply and collapsed the ERCOT grid in Texas for a week. A scenario like that could be in play in parts of the eastern US, regions where power grids are already tight because of bad 'green' energy policies colliding with the era of data centers.
Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB AB, commented on Natty prices ripping higher: "This is a textbook winter-driven squeeze: fast, violent, and sentiment-shifting."
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