AwesomeCapital

Saturday, April 25, 2026

The Petroyuan Myth: War Failed To Shake The Dollar

by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

Despite sanctions and two wars, the yuan is losing ground, with much of its earlier rise tied to Russia and now reversing.

The Kremlin drafted a memo this year outlining seven areas of potential economic convergence with Washington, including a proposed return to dollar settlement for Russian energy transactions. The stated rationale in the memo is that dollar integration would stabilize Russia’s balance of payments and foreign exchange markets. Russia never actually wanted to transact business in yuan. Moscow only did so because it was cut off from the dollar system by sanctions and had no choice.

The yuan was a fallback, not a preference. Russia’s desire to return to a dollar-denominated trade regimen is an implicit admission that the yuan-based arrangement failed to deliver monetary stability. It also demonstrates Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to decrease Russia’s dependence on China. Putin has many ambitions for Russia’s future, but among them is not for Russia to be the No. 2 power in a Beijing-centered world order.

Heading into the U.S.–Iran conflict, many pundits believed it would bring about the demise of the dollar while accelerating the internationalization of the yuan.

Bloomberg ran a piece titled “The Iran War Is China’s Global Payments Debut,” arguing it took four years of preparation after Ukraine, and this war, to make the yuan a serious contender.

The South China Morning Post cited analysts saying disruptions from the war could accelerate a shift in oil trade and threaten the dollar’s long-held dominance.

Deutsche Bank’s FX Managing Director Mallika Sachdeva wrote in March that the Iran war could be remembered as a catalyst for “erosion in petrodollar dominance, and the beginnings of the petroyuan.”

However, none of these predictions came true.

In fact, the Iranian Embassy in Zimbabwe posted that it was time to add the “petroyuan” to the global oil market, and Iran demanded that tankers be allowed passage only if trade was denominated in yuan.

But to date, the only confirmation is from Lloyd’s List that two ships paid a toll, and there is no clear evidence that the toll was paid in yuan. Lloyd’s List has also not released the names of the ships; therefore, they may very well have been Chinese-flagged vessels that paid a toll, allowing China to claim that de-dollarization was underway.

The logic behind their belief that dollar dominance would be damaged by this conflict was that the United States used sanctions and dollar-system exclusion as a primary weapon against Iran, just as it did against Russia. Every time Washington weaponizes the dollar, it gives non-Western countries an incentive to build off-ramps. Iran, China, and Russia all have a motive to route energy trade outside SWIFT and dollar settlement.

A major U.S. military and financial confrontation with Iran could have been expected to accelerate that, pushing Iranian oil sales into yuan, deepening CIPS usage, and giving China a showcase for an alternative system. However, the data shows the opposite. The dollar has lost no ground, and the yuan has made no gains. If Russia re-dollarizes, the yuan will lose much of its already small share of global trade.

The yuan’s global footprint does not support the internationalization narrative that Russia’s sanctions-driven shift was used to bolster. IMF COFER data for Q3 2025 put the yuan’s share of global foreign exchange reserves at 1.93 percent, down from 1.99 percent in the prior quarter, compared to the dollar’s 56.92 percent. The SWIFT November 2025 RMB Tracker recorded the yuan’s share of global payments at 2.94 percent, falling to 2.71 percent in February 2026.

Between 2020 and 2024, the yuan’s share of global trade settlement roughly doubled, rising from around 2 percent to a peak of 4.7 percent, according to SWIFT RMB Tracker data. That headline gain drove widespread claims that the yuan was displacing the dollar as the world’s trading currency. The reality is more complicated.

To understand how much of that gain was genuine organic growth versus a single sanctions-driven relationship, it is possible to estimate the dollar amounts involved. Global merchandise trade ran from approximately $17.6 trillion in 2020 to $24.4 trillion in 2024, meaning total yuan-settled trade grew from roughly $350 billion to $1.15 trillion, an increase of approximately $800 billion.

Over the same period, Russia–China bilateral trade grew from around $117 billion to $245 billion, with yuan settlement going from near zero before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine to roughly 60 percent of bilateral trade by 2024, a gain of approximately $145 billion in yuan-settled flows. That one corridor, therefore, accounts for an estimated 15 to 20 percent of the entire global increase in yuan trade settlement.

If Russia shifts back to the dollar, the yuan will lose part of its current 2.71 percent share of global trade settlement. In short, the yuan is not gaining internationalization, the dollar is not losing ground, and even two parallel wars, one in Ukraine and one in Iran, have not been sufficient to accelerate the yuan’s adoption as an international trade currency.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/petroyuan-myth-war-failed-shake-dollar

'Dinner gunman ‘assembled long weapon in unsecured room’ before firing near ballroom'

A White House Correspondents’ Dinner volunteer said the suspected gunman appeared to assemble a “long” weapon in a lightly monitored area near the terrace-level entrance before opening fire and rushing toward the ballroom.

The witness, Helen Mabus, a volunteer working the event who said she is from Harrisburg, Pa., described a “makeshift room” near the entrance where bar carts were being stored and where “there was no security” at the time.

“He was in that room […] he grabbed it out of a bag or something,” Mabus said, adding that the weapon “was long” and “didn’t look like a typical gun.”

Mabus said the suspect was partially out of view of security as he handled the weapon inside the room before suddenly moving toward the main event space.

“He put it together and […] ran towards the stairs to go down to the ballroom,” she said.

The gunman then began firing in multiple directions as guests and staff scrambled to escape.

“It just seem like he was shooting all over the place,” Mabus said, estimating she heard “at least 10 shots.”

She said the gunfire triggered immediate panic, with people “screaming and running” while Secret Service and other armed personnel rushed toward the danger.

Mabus said she fled in the opposite direction and did not see the suspect apprehended, adding that the chaos unfolded just steps from the path leading down to the ballroom where hundreds of high-profile guests had gathered.

https://nypost.com/2026/04/25/us-news/white-house-correspondents-dinner-gunman-assembled-long-weapon-in-unsecured-room-before-firing-volunteer/

Starmer pledges to move on banning Iran's IRGC in next parliament session

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to introduce legislation to proscribe Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the next parliamentary session, in an interview with the Jewish Chronicle.

Starmer said legislation would be brought forward “in a few weeks” as parliament reconvenes.

“In relation to malign state actors more generally, proscription, we do need legislation in order to take necessary measures, and that is legislation that we're bringing forward as soon as we can.”

“We go into a new session in a few weeks' time, and we'll bring that legislation forward,” he said.

He also voiced concern over Tehran’s activities in the United Kingdom, saying he was “very worried” about the increasing use of proxies by the Islamic Republic.

Starmer made the remarks during a solidarity trip to Kenton United Synagogue on Thursday.

The visit came on the eve of the court appearance of two men accused of spying on Jewish and Israeli targets in London on behalf of the Iranian intelligence.

Nematollah Shahsavani 40, and Alireza Farasati, 22, face charges under the UK’s National Security Act of engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service. Prosecutors allege the activity was carried out for Iran.

Growing threats

Starmer's pledge to ban Iran's IRGC comes at a time of growing concern about threats, intimidation, and violence affecting people linked to Iran in Britain.

On April 18, Iran International received reports that an Iranian man was violently assaultedin central London. The Metropolitan Police are understood to be investigating.

On April 17, British police charged three people over an attempted arson attack near the London offices of Iran International.

Police said a burning container was thrown towards the broadcaster’s headquarters in north-west London. No one was injured, but the case has added to concerns about the safety of Persian-language media in Britain.

Before that, in March 2026, an Iran-aligned group was reported to have claimed responsibility for an arson attack on Jewish ambulances in Golders Green, north London.

In May 2025, three Iranian men were charged under the National Security Act after a major counter-terrorism investigation. Prosecutors said one of the men had carried out surveillance, reconnaissance, and online research with the aim of committing serious violence against a person in the UK.

The other two were accused of similar activity intended to help others carry out serious violence. The Home Secretary said the case was part of a broader response to threats linked to the Iranian state.

British authorities have warned for several years that Iran poses a serious threat on UK soil.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604245287

Trump to give press conference after event postponed

President Trump, first lady Melania Trump and his cabinet were evacuated from the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington Saturday night after gunfire erupted.

The president is safe and will give a press conference around 10:15 p.m. after the Secret Service announced that the dinner was postponed.

The Secret Service swiftly secured the hotel as investigations continue into the incident.

The president was slated to join journalists and high-profile administration members for the annual bash, with Trump giving the traditional speech later in the evening.

https://nypost.com/2026/04/25/us-news/white-house-correspondents-dinner-live-updates-news-trump-speech/

LA County supervisor thanks Trump for meeting on wildfire recovery, says other states ‘in line'

Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger (R) on Friday thanked President Trump for meeting with her and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) about wildfire recovery efforts, but noted that other states are “in line” requesting assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Barger told CNN’s Elex Michaelson that she spoke with lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Thursday about other natural disasters that impacted states like North Carolina, Florida and Texas.

“It’s important for us to recognize that they’re also standing in line waiting for assistance,” she said. “So my goal, and I made this clear to everyone on the hill that I met with, is not to leave other states behind. It’s important for us to speak with one voice. We’re all asking for FEMA reimbursement, which is something that’s in the books.”

She said there was “heavy lifting” to do, and added that Trump recognized issues with fire rebuilding permits. Trump signed an executive order in January to speed up the rebuilding of homes in Pacific Palisades and Altadena, the California communities most affected by the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025.

Michaelson pressed on the dynamic between Bass and Trump during the meeting. The two have been outspoken in criticizing each other, specifically over federal immigration enforcement operations in the City of Angels.

“It was not Republican [versus] Democrat, it was about representatives there to talk about a disaster that occurred,” Barger said. “He came out, he saw it firsthand. His concern was, ‘Are you going to help the survivors rebuild?’ And the answer is yes.”

She said the president asked about rebuilding utilities and water infrastructure damaged by the fires, and that he “wanted to know what’s being done to further address future fires.”

Barger did not go into detail about how soon FEMA funding would go toward wildfire recovery.

Trump also praised the meeting on Truth Social, sharing photos with him, Bass and Barger in the Oval Office. Barger said he addressed his criticism of State Farm and other insurance companies during the meeting. The president accused them of inadequately responding to claims related to the fires.

“The Banks, however, have a long way to go, and we will be looking into their actions, effective immediately,” he wrote on Truth Social Thursday. “Wells Fargo, in particular, has been very difficult to deal with. The Banks must treat those people, who so horribly lost their Homes in this tragic fire, very fairly and well.”

Barger is the only Republican on the five women-led board, headed by Chair Hilda Solis (D). Barger’s 5th District, the largest district in Los Angeles County and includes communities in the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys, was affected by the Eaton fire.

Both the Palisades and Eaton fires concurrently ravaged a combined total of more than 37,000 acres, according to NASA. The fires killed 31 people and destroyed 13,000 homes and other residential properties.

California elected officials, including Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), have called on the Trump administration to permit $33.9 billion in FEMA funds to go toward fire recovery aid to rebuild schools, homes, utilities and other infrastructure destroyed by the fires.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5849208-trump-meets-barges-bass-fires/

Mamdani’s photography director has long history of anti-NYPD rants

Her view on cops is anything but picture perfect.

Kara McCurdy, NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s director of photography, has a long history of publicly ranting about her disdain for police — and even her desire to beat some up.

“Isn’t it f—-d up that we can’t throw punches at the police,” the socialist shutterbug wrote on X in May 2020.

In a since-deleted Sept. 20, 2023 post, tagged to the 114th Precinct in Astoria, McCurdy complained about encountering two NYPD squad cars and wrote, “Get f—-d u pieces of s–t,” referring to officers she claimed tried to “corner” her vehicle in the rain after she honked at them for pulling out in front of her.

In what appears to be a follow-up message two minutes later at 4:44 am, she ripped: “Truly wish nothing but the absolute worst things imaginable for f–ing pigs who f-k around with the safety of me [and] my neighbors in ALREADY DANGEROUS SITUATIONS I hope u all rot.”

McCurdy, a 32-year-old Queens resident, describes herself as a “documentary photographer” whose work is “rooted in the belief that the intimate is inherently political.”

She first met Mamdani in 2019 during a campaign party for socialist Councilwoman Tiffany Caban, during Caban’s failed Queens district attorney race, she told Vanity Fair.

A few months later, the Savannah College of Art and Design graduate volunteered to help Mamdani’s 2020 state Assembly campaign and has been his campaign photographer since — earning $36,200 shooting last year’s mayoral race and Hizzoner’s transition to City Hall, records show.

The Mayor’s Office refused to say what McCurdy earns as director of photography.

Critics say McCurdy’s hiring is the latest example of the soft-on-crime mayor’s lack of respect for the NYPD.

“Our police force is already feeling demoralized and disrespected, and now there’s an avowed and open cop hater cavorting around Gracie Mansion with the Mamdanis,” said Councilman Phil Wong (D-Queens) “As they say, show me who your friends are, and I’ll tell you who you are, and this mayor is certainly showing us who he is.”

McCurdy — who is pals with Mamdani’s wife Rama Duwaji — photographed and documented the first couple’s nuptials last year.

Duwaji is already under fire for her own online antics — such as liking a series of anti-Israel social media posts, including one claiming Hamas’ rapes of Israelis during the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attack were a “mass hoax.”

McCurdy’s antipolice rhetoric stretches back to at least June 2012 when she posted “freaking hate cops” without explanation.

She’s also gone out of her way to slam NYPD cops on X — even when they’ve cut her some slack.

“I almost ran over a woman and the cop said, ‘pls stop at stop signs’ like???? This is my third encounter with cops within the month, and they’ve all been stupidly nice to me???? ACAB til I die baby,” she wrote June 4, 2020, referring to the acronym “All Cops are Bastards,” a rallying cry for the “Defund the Police” movement.

Six days later, McCurdy photographed a young girl she was babysitting standing, with her right fist raised, atop a park bench with “FTP” – an acronym for the protest phrase “F—k The Police” — spraypainted on it. The shutterbug posted the photo on X, along with the caption: “You love to see it.”

Councilwoman Joann Ariola (R-Queens) wondered what kind of message McCurdy’s hiring sends to the NYPD.

“The mayor, who is supposed to be leading the department, trusted this woman enough to have her take his wedding pictures and brought her with him into the halls of government, all while she has a history of spouting off on social media about her desire to punch cops and calling police officers pigs,” she said. “This is repugnant.”

The Mayor’s Office and McCurdy did not return messages.

https://nypost.com/2026/04/25/us-news/freaking-hate-cops-mamdanis-photography-director-has-long-history-of-anti-nypd-rants/