Oppenheimer analyst Silvan Tuerkcan has downgraded Constellation Pharmaceuticals (CNST -4.0%) to Perform from Outperform, and lowered price target to $20 from $47 driven by new 25% Probability of Success versus prior 60% for its lead asset CPI-0610, in myelofibrosis, a rare bone marrow cancer.
The analyst notes that the company plans to initiate MANIFEST-2 pivotal study for CPI-0610 in the second half of the year, and expects to enroll ~310 patients. Based on the earlier MANIFEST study, he estimates that CPI-0610 + ruxolitinib causes significant reductions of platelet counts, which lead to ruxolitinib dose reduction.
The analyst, however, is concerned about the probability of CPI-0610 + ruxolitinib beating ruxolitinib alone on efficacy, as he believes patients in the ruxolitinib alone arm could end up with higher doses of ruxolitinib than patients in the CPI + ruxolitinib arm.
In December last year, the company announced that in the first-line treatment arm, 80% of evaluable patients receiving CPI-0610 + ruxolitinib experienced at least a 35% spleen response (SVR35) at week 12, while in evaluable patients resistant to or intolerant of ruxolitinib who received CPI-061 as add-on treatment, the SVR35 rate was 25% at week 24.
New data in June, showed positive action in the myelofibrosis study.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3612258-constellation-pharma-downgraded-to-perform-oppenheimer
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