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Sunday, February 2, 2025

75% of Dems believe NYC is in crisis – nearly half ready to leave if things get worse: new poll

 Likely Dem primary voters in the upcoming mayoral election overwhelmingly say New York City is in crisis — with nearly half saying that if things get any worse, they may leave, a dismal new survey shows.

The pessimism is broad and deep.

Eighty percent of the respondents say they are worried about the current level of crime, while 75% believe their city is in a state of crisis, and 70% are “fearful and anxious” about its future, according to the poll by Democratic strategists with the Honan Strategy Group.

Eighty percent of the respondents say they are worried about the current level of crime, according to a new survey.REUTERS

Nearly half, or 45%, of respondents say that if things get any worse, they “may be forced to move out” of Gotham.

“It’s misery, absolutely. It’s f–king disgusting, in plain English,” said Dennis Griggs, 57, a more than 20-year resident of Woodside, Queens, referring to the state of the city.

“I’ve been planning to leave here for three solid years. I can’t leave here because of  my job — I don’t see a pathway where I can work work fully remote,” he said, declining to give his line of work.

A 60-year-old Forest Hills, Queens, resident who only gave his first name, Gustavo, said he is originally from Lima, Peru, but has been living in New York for more than 30 years — and it’s “not safe anymore.

“Since they opened the border and they let in all these gangs from Venezuela, they call came over,” he lamented.

Nearly half of the polled Democrats say crime/violence and quality-of-life issues — 23% and 22% respectively — were top concerns, followed by worries about housing costs at 19%.

“Overall, we found the electorate very much on edge,” said pollster Bradley Honan, whose previous clients include former Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic National Committee and the Teach Coalition affiliated with the Jewish Orthodox Union.

Pollster Bradley Honan’s previous clients include former Mayor Mike Bloomberg and the Democratic National Committee.William Farrington

“Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters believe that New York City is heading on
the wrong track versus only 12% who believe the city is heading in the right direction,” he said.

Honan said he’s only seen such sour numbers among New York voters twice over the past 25 years — after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and during the once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic.

“New Yorkers are fundamentally unhappy with where the city is today,” the pollster said. “There’s a sense of fear and anxiety that runs deep.”

“Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters believe that New York City is heading on the wrong track,” Honan said.Michael Nagle

That nearly half of Democratic primary voters would consider leaving if things get worse is “a shocking number,” Honan added.

The Democratic voters’ feelings about the state of the city is more bad news for incumbent Democratic Mayor Eric Adams, who is broadly unpopular as he seeks re-election while fighting a criminal corruption indictment.

The poll found that 85% of Democrats do not believe that Adams should be reelected and that 81% disapprove of his job performance, including 60% who say they strongly disapprove.

Meanwhile, 66% give the city government a poor rating for how it is being run today, and another 28% only give the municipality a “fair” rating.

Among Democratic respondents, 64% believe Adams is too closely tied to President Trump.

64% of Democratic respondents believe Adams is too closely tied to President Trump.AFP via Getty Images

The poll, which interviewed 769 Democratic primary voters by text from January
23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.53% , was conducted before Adams’ legal team met with Trump’s Justice Department on Friday to consider getting the criminal corruption charges against him dropped.

Before taking office, Trump said he would consider pardoning the mayor, saying he thinks Adams had been “treated pretty unfairly.”

Adams in September became the first sitting mayor in the city’s history to be charged with federal crimes when he was indicted for allegedly taking bribes and illegal campaign contributions from foreign sources. The mayor has forcefully denied the charges

The survey, mirroring a previous one, shows that ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo would be the clear-front runner if he enters the race for mayor.

In a hypothetical ballot for the Democratic mayoral primary, Cuomo leads with 35% of the vote, followed by city Comptroller Brad Lander with 10% and Adams tied for third place with 9% of the vote along with Democratic Socialist Queens state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.

Former city Comptroller Scott Stringer is supported by 8% of respondents, Queens state Sen. Jessica Ramos by 6% and Brooklyn state Sen. Zellnor Myrie by 3%, while 20% remain undecided.

Under ranked-choice voting, Cuomo would win the primary in the sixth round with 58% of the vote, to 17% for Brad Lander and 13% for Mandani. Adams is eliminated in the ffith round with 12% support, according to polling.

About half of Dems had a favorable view of Cuomo and nearly half unfavorable.

Cuomo resigned as governor in August 2021 under the threat of impeachment following a slew of sexual misconduct accusations that he denies. He is mulling a comeback bid for City Hall.

Despite the baggage and attacks, Cuomo still has a strong brand among city Democrats for tackling issues, Honan said.

https://nypost.com/2025/02/02/us-news/new-poll-shows-75-of-dems-say-nyc-in-crisis-with-nearly-half-ready-to-leave-if-things-get-worse/

What Goes Into An A+ Trading Opportunity?

 Over the years, I've been struck by how many top performing discretionary traders don't have win percentages of much over 50%.  Most of their trades are relatively small winners and relatively small losers.  They are *very* good at risk management and so they have very few large losers.  But they are also good at recognizing their best opportunities--what we might call their A+ trades--and making the most of these.  In his book One Good Trade, Mike Bellafiore of SMB Capital stresses that, "Consistently profitable traders obsess about making One Good Trade and not money.  Your job is to make One Good Trade and then One Good Trade and then One Good Trade" (p. 31).

From this perspective, One Good Trade includes losing trades that one manages well.  One Good Trade also refers to profitable trades that follow one's trading rules.  If my above observation is correct, however, trading success also requires awareness of One Great Trade:  one's A+ opportunity.  It's the relatively few big winning trades that account for the difference between most good traders and the great ones.  It's the (all too rare) combination of disciplined risk management and aggressive pursuit of special opportunities that define the great trader.

Having met with many traders over the years, I can confidently say that the great majority don't know--in detail--what goes into One Great Trade.  They might have a sense for good opportunities, which they might call A trades, but they haven't truly studied their A+ trades:  those few trades in a month or year that account for a large share of total profitability.  What goes into an A+ trading opportunity?  If you don't study those One Great Trade occasions in detail, replaying them and analyzing them intensively, how can you find the conviction to pursue them with aggressiveness?

I've been studying my own A+ trades and opportunities and will share them in an update to this post.  But my unique opportunities are unlikely to be yours.  Anything great cannot be copied from someone else, whether it's a painting, musical work, or writing.  The odds are good that your A+ opportunities are hiding in plain sight.  They are among your standout winners, even though you may not have fully exploited their potential.  Much of the time, we become so immersed in solving trading problems and controlling trading emotions that we never fully study our trading strengths.

One Good Trade keeps you in the game and can make you consistently profitable.  If you can identify One Great Trade, you'll have a template for success that you can build upon.

More to come.

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-goes-into-a-trading-opportunity.html

Canada to launch program to relieve businesses of tariff hit

 Canadian officials announced Sunday they will provide a mechanism for Canadian businesses to obtain relief from retaliatory tariffs set to take effect against the United States in the coming days.

Under the so-called "remission process," Canadian businesses could apply for tariff relief or refunds, provided they meet certain conditions.

Companies would be eligible for the relief if goods cannot be sourced domestically or reasonably from non-U.S. sources. The government would also consider relief on a case-by-case basis in "other exceptional circumstances that could have severe adverse impacts on the Canadian economy."

"We want to preserve this relationship, but in the face of the unjustified U.S. tariffs against Canadian goods, we are taking action to protect our economy, our workers and our businesses. We will always stand for Canada," said Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's finance minister in a statement.

The Canadian government announced retaliatory tariffs on Saturday, in response to a host of new tariffs President Donald Trump announced against Canada, Mexico and China.

The first set of Canadian tariffs, set to take effect Tuesday on $30 billion of products, will apply to products including beverages, cosmetics and paper products.

The government announced Saturday it would impose additional tariffs on $125 billion of U.S. products, which will be specified at a later date but will include vehicles, metal, produce, beef, pork, dairy products, and more, according to a Department of Finance release.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-launch-program-relieve-businesses-193031586.html

'Tariff War Likely to Put Canada Into Recession, Economists Say'

 

The Canadian economy is set to face the most severe shock since the Covid-19 pandemic and will probably sink into a recession if a tariff war persists, say top economists, with one calling it an “existential threat.”

President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on most goods the US buys from Canada and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to retaliate on C$155 billion ($105 billion) worth of American-made products will trim real gross domestic product growth by 2 to 4 percentage points, according to economists’ estimates.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-02/tariff-war-likely-to-plunge-canada-into-recession

Rubio tells Panama that China threaten canal, changes needed - statement

 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino that US President Donald Trump has determined China’s influence threatens the Panama Canal and that immediate changes were needed or the US would act, the State Department said on Monday.

Rubio told Mulino that Trump “has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal”, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said.

The Panamanian government has vehemently denied ceding operation of the canal to China and insists it administers the canal fairly to all shipping.


'North Korea criticises Rubio, says it will respond strongly to US provocations'

 North Korea on Monday criticised U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for calling it a "rogue state", saying his comments do not help U.S. interests, state media KCNA said.

North Korea's foreign ministry said the country will respond strongly to hostile U.S. provocations, KCNA reported.

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/north-korea-criticises-rubio-says-it-will-respond-strongly-to-us-provocations/ar-AA1yhSzK