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Monday, June 16, 2025

Wave Of USAF Tankers Depart America Amid Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict

Israel's ongoing military campaign, Operation Rising Lion, has conducted coordinated precision strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, crude oil export terminals, and high-value IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) targets since late last week. The scope and sequencing of these strikes—outlined in a Wall Street Journal op-ed in October 2024—suggest objectives that go well beyond deterrence, aiming instead to pave the way for regime change in Tehran.

Speaking Sunday, President Trump emphasized that the U.S. "is not involved" in Israel's strikes on Iran—adding, however, that "it's possible we could get involved."

"We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," Trump told ABC News' Rachel Scott.

The president also took to Truth Social, positioning himself as mediator and de-escalator-in-chief, stating: "Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal."

Even though President Trump is intent on avoiding a direct confrontation with Iran, any IRGC shift from striking Israel to targeting U.S. interests or personnel in the Middle East would likely escalate the conflict and sharply increase the odds of American intervention.

Overnight, several aviation tracking websites, including Flightradar24 and Air Live, reported that dozens of U.S. Air Force tankers took off from the U.S. and headed towards Europe.

Destinations are unknown for some, but the Boeing KC-46A and KC-135 aerial refueling tankers are critical aviation assets that extend the operational reach, endurance, and flexibility of fighter jets.

However...

The repositioning of USAF aerial refueling tankers strongly indicates that Western military planners are bracing for a sustained or broadening conflict—measured in weeks, not days. If that's the case, market overservers should take note: JPMorgan warns Brent crude futures could surge into triple-digit territory if the conflict deepens.

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/wave-usaf-tankers-depart-america-and-deploy-east-amid-escalating-israel-iran-conflict

'Market Rapidly Evolving Towards Positive Outcome In The Middle East'

by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

While the fighting continues between Iran and Israel, the market is pricing in a positive outcome in the Middle East. Casualties continue to mount as Iran and Israel continue to attack each other, but an optimistic narrative is emerging.

Israel has the upper hand militarily. Through a combination of traditional military force, intelligence, espionage and even sabotage, Israel has demonstrated the ability to target specific leaders and sites, with a high degree of success. Iran on the other hand, seems to be confirming what many of our GIG stated back when Iran launched a thousand or so missiles and drones against Israel – the weapons weren’t as effective against Israel’s Iron Dome and other defenses as feared.
- The proxies have gone quiet. Rather than seeing Israel attacked on multiple fronts, the proxies have been quite quiet. Damage done to the proxies since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th 2023, has been substantial.
Iran is afraid to risk escalation to the point of direct U.S. involvement. While Iran has managed some strikes into Israel, the missile barrages seem dangerous, but not overwhelmingly so. Would they dare risk bringing the U.S. into more direct involvement? That would seem like a bad idea strategically from Iran, given their performance so far.
- Straits of Hormuz likely to remain open. Threats about potentially trying to close this are largely being ignored (crude prices are slightly lower). Do they have the capability? Maybe, but that could bring the U.S. into the conflict in a more meaningful way. It would also not be surprising if China, via back channels, has messaged its preference to continue receiving Iranian oil.
Regime change is on the table. From the messaging Israel is sending, it is clear that they believe there is a potential to kindle a regime change in Iran. We should all assume they have some degree of intelligence giving them the confidence to go ahead with that messaging. While the IRGC is allegedly still a major force to be reckoned with (we will come back to the word “allegedly” shortly) this would be a major positive development for the region. As the GIG has been pointing out for the past 2 years, with increasing emphasis, Iran has become the outlier and the “enemy” of the Middle East rather than Israel. Many of the nations want to move on and continue to develop post fossil fuel economies – just look at the deals President Trump struck on his recent trip to the region. One can even wonder if Regime Change might be easier to accomplish than knocking out all the Nuclear Capabilities?

While anything can still happen while the fighting continues, the optimistic narrative seems plausible and is very positive.

Which brings us to the point where we need to think about further ramifications. Since China, the Chinese military and the possibility of attacking Taiwan come up in so many of our meetings, we cannot help but wonder if China has some doubt about their own military:

Russia turned out to be far less superior in the field than one would have expected on paper. They squandered a massive advantage in equipment early on, and while they continue to pound on Ukraine, they have failed to progress much beyond what they held before this all started.
North Korean troops made headlines by fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. By all accounts, they had incredibly poor tactics (World War I style charges, leading to their own slaughter). While North Korea has nukes and missiles, and we need to continue to take them seriously, their military seemed lacking in practice (at least what we witnessed in Ukraine).
Iran’s “vaunted” missile systems. Not to diminish the deaths that have occurred, on both sides, but this has not been “shock and awe” levels of performance. While Iran has no air force, nor navy, so to speak, their air defense systems also seemed particularly vulnerable.
China, a year or so ago, had dismissals in their “elite” rocket and missile forces. During the brief altercation between India and Pakistan, the Chinese fighter jets supposedly performed well, but the Chinese anti-air defenses did not (that is the intelligence scuttlebutt that came out of that fighting).

If you are Xi, it seems almost impossible that you aren’t at least a tiny bit worried that your own rapidly growing military is merely a paper dragon.

Maybe this will encourage China to negotiate more fulsomely with the U.S. on the trade front?
- In any case, hopefully given the recent talks and the focus on rare earths and critical minerals, the U.S. will embrace the policy of National Production for National Security which we touched on in this weekend’s On Shaky Ground.

The fighting continues, and there are risks, but what seemed like optimistic outcomes, now seems to be the most plausible outcomes.

At this rate, the FOMC meeting might be important, and we continue to expect the market to be surprised by a shift to dovishness from this Fed (as described in more detail in Sunday’s T-Report, linked above).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-rapidly-evolving-positive-outcome-middle-east

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Trump to flood big cities like LA and NYC with ICE agents in ‘single largest Mass Deportation Program’

President Trump announced plans to flood Democrat-run cities, namely New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, with new, larger waves of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to bring about the “single largest Mass Deportation Program in History.”

Trump highlighted the sweeping change targeting the majority-Democrat cities on Truth Social Sunday night as he praised ICE agents for their “incredible strength, determination, and courage.”

“In order to achieve this, we must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside,” Trump wrote.

“These, and other such Cities, are the core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State, robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens.”

Republican-run states like Texas, which is home to five of the largest cities in America, including Houston and San Antonio, were notably left out of the president’s post.

None of the Lone Star State’s big urban centers, however, call themselves “sanctuary cities.”

“These Radical Left Democrats are sick of mind, hate our Country, and actually want to destroy our Inner Cities — And they are doing a good job of it!” the commander in chief added in his post.

“And that is why I want ICE, Border Patrol, and our Great and Patriotic Law Enforcement Officers, to FOCUS on our crime ridden and deadly Inner Cities, and those places where Sanctuary Cities play such a big role. You don’t hear about Sanctuary Cities in our Heartland!”

Trump previously pledged that “changes are coming” last week after admitting that his administration’s crackdown on immigration was massacring key American industries — namely farming and hospitality.

The Department of Agriculture estimates that nearly half of the 850,000 crop workers in the United States are undocumented, putting America’s food supply chain at risk of total collapse if all are deported.

While New York State is home to the largest sanctuary city in the country, it ranks first nationally in the production of many crops and products, including household staples like yogurt and cottage cheese, according to the New York Farm Bureau.

With Trump’s focus set on sanctuary cities, it is unclear how other parts of Democratic states may be impacted, or if ICE activity will primarily center on metropolitan areas going forward.

Even so, raids have already expanded beyond the fields with ICE agents turning up anywhere from courthouses to schools. The shift quickly scared many immigrant workers away from the public eye.

Data cited by the Wall Street Journal showed how immigrants’ purchasing habits dramatically shifted online. Large brands also saw a steep decrease in Hispanic customer traffic, with places that have fallen victim to raids like Home Depot seeing an 8.7% drop.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/15/us-news/trump-to-flood-big-cities-like-la-and-nyc-with-ice-agents-in-single-largest-mass-deportation-program-in-history/

Minnesota suspected assassin Vance Boelter captured alive

Suspected political assassin Vance Luther Boelter was captured Sunday following an intense manhunt for the gunman accused of murdering a Minnesota state lawmaker and wounding another, according to a report.

Boelter, a 57-year-old former appointee by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was sought by police for allegedly shooting Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, and fatally shooting former Democratic House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband.

He was arrested and taken into custody in a field in Sibley County Sunday night, sources told local station Fox 9.

The alleged gunman disguised himself as a police officer, wearing a uniform, vest and creepy Halloween mask when he launched his attack in the northern Minnesota suburb.

Boelter’s rampage began at State Senator Hoffman’s Champlin home around 2 a.m. on Saturday.

The crazed gunman fired off multiple rounds, striking the 60-year-old Democrat and his wife multiple times, seriously wounding the couple.

Yvette Hoffman had jumped on top of her daughter, Hope, shielding her from the bullets, the couple’s nephew said.

John and Yvette Hoffman underwent surgery and are in stable condition.

After the first shooting, Boelter — still disguised — raced to the home of Speaker Emerita Hortman in Brooklyn Park.

He fatally wounded Hortman and her husband Mark with multiple shots.

Hortman, a 55-year-old Democrat, was pronounced dead inside her home. Her husband died at a nearby hospital.

Police, conducting a check on Hortman after being alerted to the shooting at the Hoffman’s home, confronted the masked killer as he left the Brooklyn Park home.

Officers fired at the cop impersonator, at one point cornering the gunman inside the home, but the suspect managed to escape.

Boelter sent a text to his best friends and roommate after the shootings, allegedly admitting to the heinous killings.

“David and Ron, I love you guys. I made some choices, and you guys don’t know anything about this, but I’m going to be gone for a while. May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way,” Boelter told David Carlson, according to KARE.

Boelter’s wife, Jenny Boelter, was pulled over and detained by police while driving with relatives on Saturday morning and was questioned by authorities for her role in the shooting.

Police found passports and a weapon in the car.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/15/us-news/minnesota-suspected-assassin-vance-luther-boelter-captured-by-police-after-allegedly-killing-rep-hortman-and-injuring-sen-hoffman/